Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMFL 250915
FWSMFL

Spot Forecast for COWBELL FIRE...BIG CYPRESS
National Weather Service Miami FL
515 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0600 EDT on May 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (305) 229-4522, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
West to southwest winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
are possible over the burn site today. There is also chance of
showers along with a few thunderstorms over the burn site today.
The primary impacts from the thunderstorms will be lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. The relative
humidity will stay well above the critical value today, and the
dispersion index will be around 70 this afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    showers with isolated thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph
                    early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................2.
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL...increasing to 2400-3200 ft
                    AGL early.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 15 mph...increasing to 22 to 30
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....9...increasing to 20 late in the
                    morning,...then increasing to 41...increasing
                    to 65 early...increasing to 70...decreasing to
                    58 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
Ceiling (kft).......4000...increasing to 5000 late in the
                    afternoon.

Time (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........93  93  79  79  79  79  79  79  60  60  60  56
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............70  70  73  79  82  84  85  86  86  87  86  85
RH..............100 100 99  85  78  73  68  65  63  61  62  63
20 ft wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind dir..200 210 220 230 240 250 250 250 250 250 260 260
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   8   10  12  14  14  14  13  11  9
20 ft wind gust.15  15  15  15  20  25  25  30  25  25  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0
Mixng wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Mixng wind spd..8   8   9   15  22  28  30  29  28  26  25  22
Dispersion idx..8   7   11  20  41  61  69  72  71  68  62  53
LVORI...........8   8   7   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  40
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent)...then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Scattered
                    showers with isolated thunderstorms early in
                    the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 9 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light,...then becoming
                    northwest around 5 mph...becoming light. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2000,...then 1.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 16 mph...becoming north 2 to 6 mph
                    until just after midnight.
Dispersion index....33...decreasing to 3.
LVORI...............7.
Ceiling (kft).......5000...increasing to 25000 until just after
                    midnight.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered showers
                    with isolated thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon,...then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1400,...then 2.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL...increasing to 3200-4900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 2 mph...becoming west 3 to 6 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....3...increasing to 15,...then increasing to 27
                    in the afternoon...decreasing to 17 late in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
Ceiling (kft).......25000...decreasing to 5500 late in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Baxter
Requested by...ROCCO SNART
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1709974.1/MFL



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