Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FNUS74 KMOB 011233
FWSMOB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BARE BONES WILDFIRE...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0615 CST ON FEBRUARY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE BARE BONES
WILDFIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RAINFALL TOTAL BETWEEN
ONE-HALF AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH A HIGHER AMOUNT IS POSSIBLE IF THE AREA IS
EFFECTED BY A PROLONGED RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN LOWER TO
NEAR 40 PERCENT ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL BE GENERALLY
GOOD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...FOG NOT EXPECTED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO
                    SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH INCREASING TO
                    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 16 MPH LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO 57.
LVORI...............5 DECREASING TO 2.
STABILITY CLASS.....C BECOMING D IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%)...........86     86     86     97     97     97
WEATHER COV.......LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP..............45     56     65     69     68     67
RH................94     77     67     67     67     73
20 FT WIND DIR....ESE    ESE    SSE    S      S      S
20 FT WIND SPD....5      5      10     14     14     14
20 FT WIND GUST...              18     24     24     24
MIX HGT (FT)......200    200    1200   2100   2100   3100
MIX HGT (M).......60     60     370    640    640    940
TRANSP WIND DIR...ESE    ESE    SSE    S      S      S
TRANSP WIND SPD...8      8      16     21     21     24
TRANS SPD (M/S)...4      4      7      9      9      11
DISPERSION........9      9      23     41     41     57
LVORI.............5      5      3      2      2      3
STABILITY CLASS...C      C      C      D      D      D
CWR...............60     60     60     80     80     80

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH DECREASING TO
                    AROUND 8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING
                    TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH LATE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1400 FT AGL LATE.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 16 TO 18 MPH BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
                    LATE.
DISPERSION INDEX....15.
LVORI...............3 TO 4.
STABILITY CLASS.....D.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%)...........97     97     97     96     96     96
WEATHER COV.......DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP..............65     65     64     63     61     57
RH................81     78     79     82     77     75
20 FT WIND DIR....SSW    SSW    SW     SW     SW     WNW
20 FT WIND SPD....11     11     9      7      7      10
20 FT WIND GUST...22     22     18     14     14     20
MIX HGT (FT)......400    400    400    400    400    1400
MIX HGT (M).......120    120    120    120    120    430
TRANSP WIND DIR...SSW    SSW    SW     SW     SW     WNW
TRANSP WIND SPD...18     18     16     12     12     17
TRANS SPD (M/S)...8      8      7      5      5      8
DISPERSION........17     17     14     11     11     18
LVORI.............3      3      4      4      4      3
STABILITY CLASS...D      D      D      D      D      D
CWR...............80     80     80     50     50     50

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHNORTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHNORTHWEST 20 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....41 INCREASING TO 53 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3 DECREASING TO 1 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
STABILITY CLASS.....C.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%)...........81     81     42     3      3      6
WEATHER COV.......
WEATHER TYPE......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP..............52     48     47     49     51     49
RH................77     76     64     46     42     44
20 FT WIND DIR....NW     NW     NNW    NNW    NNW    NNW
20 FT WIND SPD....12     12     14     15     15     12
20 FT WIND GUST...23     23     26     26     26     22
MIX HGT (FT)......2300   2300   2800   3200   3200   3700
MIX HGT (M).......700    700    850    980    980    1130
TRANSP WIND DIR...NW     NW     NNW    NNW    NNW    N
TRANSP WIND SPD...20     20     23     21     21     18
TRANS SPD (M/S)...9      9      10     9      9      8
DISPERSION........41     41     53     52     52     52
LVORI.............3      3      1      1      1      1
STABILITY CLASS...C      C      C      C      C      C
CWR...............10     10     0      0      0      0

$$
FORECASTER...22
REQUESTED BY...TRACY SIMMONS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150201.BAREB.01/MOB




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