Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FNUS73 KMQT 260957
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Scatter to wind...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
557 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure lifting across the area will bring rain
at times into Thursday. There may even be thunderstorms tonight.
Southeast winds could gust to 25 mph late this morning into the
afternoon. Temperatures today will be similar to Tuesday as the burn
site will stay on the warmer side of the low pressure system. Min
RH values will be much higher though around 70 percent. Plan on warm
conditions tonight and into Thursday as well, before winds shift to
the west and colder air arrives late on Thursday afternoon as the low
pressure system lifts to the north of the area. Dry conditions with
lower RH values return Friday and Saturday. Southwest winds on Friday
could reach over 20 mph, but will be lighter on Saturday. More rain
moves back over the region Sunday into Monday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Areas of fog early. A chance of rain showers,
                    then rain showers likely by evening. Chance of showers
                    60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....48 at ignition...Max 59.
Min humidity........95 percent at ignition...Min 69 percent.
33-foot winds.......Winds southeast at 15 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 10 to 15
                    mph with gusts to around 26 mph.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 8 to 12 mph.
Transport winds.....Southeast 21 to 40 mph shifting to the south 23
                    to 42 mph in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor (47) at ignition. Max...good (380).
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 200-1200 ft
                    AGL.
Haines Index........2...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.24 inches.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky (%).........94  92  91  89  88  86  87  87  88  89  89
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH     SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW      RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Temp............46  48  50  53  56  59  58  57  56  54  52
RH..............95  90  87  81  75  69  74  78  82  88  94
33 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
33 ft wind spd..15  15  16  16  16  16  16  16  14  14  14
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..12  12  13  13  13  13  13  13  11  11  11
Wind gust.......22  22  24  24  24  26  26  26  21  21  21
VIndx kt-ft/100.47  45  68  175 301 380 317 182 75  69  89
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.28  30  31  33  35  36  37  36  35  31  28
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. A chance of rain showers through late
                    evening, then rain showers likely by late
                    evening. A slight chance of thunderstorms by
                    midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2300, then 2 until 0500, then 1.
Min temperature.....Min 49.
Max humidity........Max 100 percent.
33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms by midnight.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 8 to 12 mph.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 33 mph increasing to 36 to 54 mph.
Ventilation index...Poor (45).
Mixing height.......200-500 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.38 inches.

TIME (EDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM
Sky (%).........90  91  92  93  94  95  96  95  94  93  92  91
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Temp............50  51  51  52  52  53  53  52  52  51  50  49
RH..............100 97  93  89  87  85  83  85  86  88  90  91
33 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
33 ft wind spd..12  12  12  15  15  15  16  16  16  14  14  14
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..10  10  10  12  12  12  13  13  13  11  11  11
Wind gust.......15  15  15                          17  17  17
VIndx kt-ft/100.100 79  58  45  56  81  106 115 110 100 80  72
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.24  22  21  21  23  28  32  38  43  46  46  45
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. A chance of rain showers through early
                    afternoon, then rain showers likely in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers 70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Max 58.
Min humidity........Min 72 percent.
33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 9 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 8 to 13 mph early in the evening.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 7 to 11 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 6 to 10 mph early in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 31 to 53 mph becoming southwest 13 to 20
                    mph.
Ventilation index...Good (445).
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2500-2600 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........2...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.29 inches.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
Sky (%).........90     89     90     92     87     87
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Temp............49     57     58     56     52     45
RH..............93     75     72     76     84     91
33 ft wind......SE 14  SE 14  SE 14  S 13   S 13   SW 13
20 ft wind......SE 11  SE 11  SE 11  S 10   S 10   SW 10
Wind gust.......16     16     16     16     16     16
VIndx kt-ft/100.95     287    390    367    324    341
Transport wind..S 44   S 45   S 41   S 32   SW 17  SW 15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    700    1100   1300   2200   2600
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...JLA
Requested by...Patty Carrick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707674.2/MQT



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