Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 190824
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Middle Fork F10...USFS SHF
National Weather Service Riverton WY
124 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on January 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

...Significant Snowfall Saturday...

Strong southwest wind will occur today with good smoke dispersal
expected. Minimum RH will probably occur this morning with some
increase expected this afternoon. Could see some flurries today,
but the main activity will begin later tonight and peak Saturday.
Steady snow with periods of heavy snow is expected Saturday into
Saturday evening. A total of 5 to 10 inches of snow is expected
at the fire site by the time the winter storm ends late Saturday
night.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Murrell

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....40-45.
Min humidity........40-45 percent in the morning increasing in
                    the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Southwest 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting snow.less than 5 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2000-3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 40-50 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair early, then Good.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of snow in the
                    evening, then snow likely after midnight.
Min temperature.....20-25.
Max humidity........80-90 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest 15-20 mph becoming west 5-10 mph between
                    9 PM and midnight then shifting to the northeast
                    after 3 AM.
Ridge top winds.....Southwest 15-20 mph becoming west around 10 mph
                    between 9 PM and midnight, then shifting to the
                    northeast after 3 AM.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting snow.60 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15-20 mph becoming west then northeast
                    during the night.
Smoke dispersal.....Decreasing to poor around sunset.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent) with snow. Heavy at times.
Max temperature.....25.
Min humidity........80 percent.
20-foot winds.......North to northeast 5-10 mph.
Ridge top winds.....North to northeast around 10 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting snow.100 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North to northeast around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Cloudy with snow through midnight, then gradually tapering off.
Lows around 10. Winds generally less than 10 mph.

.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy with slight chance of snow. Highs in the mid 20s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.

.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 10. Highs in the upper 20s. Winds
generally less than 10 mph.

.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 14. Highs in the lower 20s. Winds
generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Murrell
Requested by...Jacob Binns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800597.0/RIW
.EMAIL jbinns@fs.fed.us


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