Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
000
FNUS71 KRLX 141350
FWSRLX
Spot Forecast for Long Ridge Unit 20,21, and 22...USFS Wayne National Forest
National Weather Service Charleston WV
950 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on March 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
A high pressure system will continue to provide mostly dry
conditions this morning. Most of the area will also remain dry this
afternoon, although northeast Kentucky and Ohio do have a chance of
an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Today will be the warmest day
of the week, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across
much of the lowlands.
Afternoon relative humidity on Thursday dips into the lower 30s
across the burn area, though a few afternoon showers or t-storms
could moisten things up. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
steadily increases tonight and into Friday, with a wetting rain
anticipated area wide.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-30 percent) in the morning,
then partly sunny (40-60 percent) in the
afternoon. Slight chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......25 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms through 1500, then 1-8 strikes possible.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph late
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph increasing to southwest 15 to
23 mph in the afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................5 early in the morning increasing to 99 in the
mid afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........19 32 68
Weather cov..... S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC
CWR.............0 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 20
LAL.............1 1 2
Temp............56 71 75
RH..............60 44 33
20 FT wind......S 5G10 S 7G13 SW 8G15
Mix hgt (ft)....600 3900 6300
Transport wind..S 5 S 15 SW 23
LVORI...........2 1 1
ADI.............5 55 77
Haines index....3 4 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
likely in the evening, becoming widespread
overnight. Chance of thunderstorms through the
night.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent by midnight,
increasing further to 80 percent early in the
morning.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 2000, then 1-8 strikes until
2300, then 9-15 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 18 mph shifting to the southwest 6
to 8 mph early in the evening.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4 to 25.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........56 72 72 86
Weather cov.....S CHC CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............10 20 50 80
Chc of pcpn (%).20 30 60 80
LAL.............2 2 3 3
Temp............71 64 61 60
RH..............53 70 81 88
20 FT wind......SW 7G13 SW 6G10 SW 6G10 SW 7G8
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 600 700 500
Transport wind..S 18 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8
LVORI...........2 3 4 5
ADI.............25 4 5 7
Haines index....3 3 3 3
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers in
the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through
the day. Rain showers likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................80 percent decreasing to 40 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 1100, then 1-8 strikes until
1700, then No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
northwest around 8 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
in the morning and early afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 mph shifting to the north in
the late morning and afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................8 to 23.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........86 83 88 88
Weather cov.....DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............70 60 60 40
Chc of pcpn (%).80 70 70 50
LAL.............3 3 2 2
Temp............58 58 62 59
RH..............95 96 85 77
20 FT wind......SW 6G10 SW 7G10 W 8G13 NW 8G13
Mix hgt (ft)....600 700 1500 1300
Transport wind..SW 7 W 7 NW 8 N 10
LVORI...........6 7 4 4
ADI.............8 8 13 17
Haines index....3 3 3 3
$$
Forecaster...FK
Requested by...Sam Daugherty
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2406532.1/RLX
.DELDT 03/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL samuel.daugherty@usda.gov