Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 182144
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Wardening Station...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
444 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1700 EST on February 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

An upper wave of low pressure will keep clouds around through
Sunday, with lowering cloud bases and mixing heights. The chance
of rain increases overnight but amounts will be light, generally a
tenth of an inch or less. The lower cloud bases stick around
Sunday, with some clearing taking shape in the afternoon.

As for 20-foot winds, generally west under 10 mph through Sunday
morning, switching to northwest in the afternoon around 10 to 15
mph, with some gusts to 20 mph. Transport winds stay out of the
west until Sunday morning around or less than 10 mph, then
northwest in the afternoon at 15 to 20 mph, then decreasing
under 10 mph Sunday night. Transport winds will be around 5 mph
or less Monday.

Humidity should recover to 85-90 percent late tonight, then drop
to 50-60 percent Sunday afternoon. Drier conditions expect Monday
with RH dropping to 30 percent.

Above-normal temperatures will predominate the forecast period.
After tonight, the next chance for precipitation is for Tuesday
night, but this does not look to be a significant wetting rain.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers likely
                    in the evening becoming isolated to scattered
                    overnight
CWR (0.01 in).......Increasing to 60 percent in the
                    evening...then decreasing to 30 percent after 4am.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL...decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Mixing winds........West 8 to 10 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................14.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........99  100 100 100 100 100 100 99  93  87  90  84
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30  50  60  60  50  40  40  40  40  40  40  30
Temp............58  56  54  52  50  48  47  46  45  44  44  47
RH..............45  51  57  64  71  77  82  87  89  90  90  81
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  5               10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mixng wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..13  10  10  10  10  8   8  10  10   8   8   8
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   3   4   3   5   5   5   5   4
ADI.............9   15  14  14  14  16  18  10  10  11  11  11
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). A chance of
                    showers early in the morning...then a slight
                    chance of showers early in the morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......30 percent...decreasing to 10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning...becoming west 8 to 14 mph with
                    gusts up to 25 mph early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 14 to 21 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................37...increasing to 49 in the late morning and
                    early afternoon...then decreasing to 41 early
                    in the afternoon...increasing to 48 late.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........73     75     70     68     50     35
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30     20     10     10     0      0
Temp............46     46     51     55     57     58
RH..............85     85     72     65     59     52
20 ft wind......W 5    W 8    W 9    W 10   W 9    W 7
20 ft wind gust.       15     20     25     20     15
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1400   1700   2400   2600   2700
Mixing wind......W 17   NW 18  NW 21  NW 18  NW 16  NW 14
LVORI...........4      4      3      1      1      1
ADI.............32     41     53     48     41     49
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 6 to 13 mph...decreasing to 1 to 3
                    mph after midnight.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................4.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........22     19     16     18     18     17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............54     51     48     46     45     44
RH..............65     71     77     80     82     85
20 ft wind......W 6    W 4    W 3    W 3    W 2    NW 2
20 ft wind gust.10     5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   1900   1500   1300   1100   1000
Mixing wind......NW 13  NW 12  NW 8   NW 3   NW 1   NW 2
LVORI...........3      3      4      5      6      5
ADI.............6      5      4      1      1      1
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      4

.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL...increasing to 4100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southeast 1 to 5 mph.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................7.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........16        13        8         17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Temp............41        48        59        65
RH..............94        72        46        33
20 FT wind......N 2G5     NE 3G5    E 3G5     E 2G5
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1200      2500      3700
Mixing wind......N 2       N 3       N 3       E 1
LVORI...........6         3         2         2
ADI.............3         6         11        8
Haines index....4         5         4         3

$$
Forecaster...Perry
Requested by...George Washington & Jefferson NF
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1702415.0/RNK



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