Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FNUS74 KTSA 221244
FWSTSA

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR KERR...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
744 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 CDT ON OCTOBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
INVERSION LAYER WILL BREAK BEFORE IGNITION TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
MIXING WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE LOWEST LEVELS. SIMILAR INVERSION AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1900-2200 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 12 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
TEMP............67  69  71  73  74  73
DEWPT...........54  54  53  53  53  53
RH..............63  58  53  49  48  50
20FT WIND DIR...E   E   E   E   E   E
20FT SPD (MPH)..4   5   4   4   4   4
20FT GUST(MPH)..10  10  10  10  5   5
CLOUDS (%)......10  12  13  13  13  13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
MIXHGT/100(FT)..013 016 020 022 022 019
TR WIND DIR.....SE  SE  SE  E   E   E
TR WIND SPD(MPH)7   3   3   3   5   6
STABILITY.......B   B   B   B   C   C
1700FT MIX T (F)74  75  71  73  74  73
VENT/1000(M^3/S)001 001 001 001 001 002

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO
                    300-600 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600-5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 1 TO
                    5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
TEMP............51  50  50  52  56  60  63  66  68  69  69  69
DEWPT...........47  46  47  48  50  50  50  50  51  51  51  52
RH..............86  85  90  86  78  69  62  58  55  53  52  55
20FT WIND DIR...SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20FT SPD (MPH)..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20FT GUST(MPH)..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
CLOUDS (%)......63  57  57  57  57  57  57  39  39  39  39  39
WEATHER COV.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
MIXHGT/100(FT)..003 004 005 007 012 023 036 046 051 052 051 049
TR WIND DIR.....SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   W   NW  NW  W   W   SW
TR WIND SPD(MPH)2   2   5   6   7   7   5   3   2   1   1   1
STABILITY.......F   F   D   D   C   C   B   B   B   B   C   C
1700FT MIX T (F)65  64  64  64  64  60  63  66  68  69  69  69
VENT/1000(M^3/S)000 000 000 001 001 002 002 002 001 001 001 001

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT
WINDS.
.SATURDAY...
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT
WINDS.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SULLIVAN
REQUESTED BY...J KRIS WILSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141022.KERR_.01/TSA








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