Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 112245
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

SUICIDE BASIN GLACIER DAMMED LAKE IN THE MENDENHALL GLACIER NEAR
JUNEAU HAS BEGUN TO RELEASE ITS IMPOUNDED WATER.  AS A RESULT
MENDEHNALL LAKE AND MENDENHALL RIVER HAVE RISEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS BASED ON THE ESTIMATED VOLUME OF WATER HELD IN
THE GLACIER DAMMED LAKE SHOW THAT THE MENDENHALL RIVER WILL CAUSE
MODERATE FLOODING AND MAY CREST ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FLOOD OF RECORD.

THE MATANUSKA RIVER NEAR PALMER IS FALLING SLOWLY AFTER A SERIES OF
HEAVY RAINS BROUGHT IT TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE.  EROSION OF THE BANK
REMAINS THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THESE ELEVATED STAGES.

CONTINUING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WESTERN COOK INLET... EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA... AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BELOW FLOOD STAGE RISES OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS IN
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PLEASE REFER TO SPECIFIC FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
THESE EVENTS.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. A SMALL SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW IS NOW MOVING
NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR. HEAVY RAIN HAS LARGELY ENDED ALONG THE GULF
COAST...WITH STEADY LIGHTER RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PROGRESS.
THIS WILL POINT A STREAM OF MOISTURE-LADEN AIR AT THE EASTERN GULF
COAST FROM CORDOBA TO SITKA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FREEZING LEVELS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALASKA. VALUES RANGED FROM 7400 FEET AT YAKUTAT
TO UNDER 6000 FEET AT COLD BAY. FREEZING LEVELS WERE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST RANGING FROM 8500 FEET TO ABOVE 10000 FEET.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                       24 HR    4 AM TO 10 AM
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER            5.58     0.80
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON            5.46     0.62
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS              5.10     0.61
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND              5.00     0.60
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN              4.40     0.80
TTKA2    TATIKLEK                   2.70
YESA2    MOUNT ALYESKA SNOTEL       2.40
CBHA2    CORDOBA BOAT HARBOR        2.36

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE IN ALASKA EXCEPT THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MOST OF ALASKA. SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA HAS A
NEUTRAL SIGNAL INDICATING THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION WHILE SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.


....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

RAR


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