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AGXX40 KNHC 281819

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
219 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


A 1017 mb high is centered just offshore of Sanibel Is this
morning with associated anticyclonic flow across the E gulf and
generally moderate Sly flow W half. 12Z SWH analysis showed seas
slight seas across NE third of basin at 3 ft or less, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere, with peak of 6 ft NW of Yucatan, where wind surge
accompanying thermal trough last night kept seas up overnight.

Little change in the overall pattern expected through late Mon
before the high begins to drift N and into NE gulf for Tue.
A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the
Yucatan Peninsula, and shift WNW across the southwestern gulf
waters, generally to s of 24N between 90W and 93W, during the
overnight and early daylight hours, and gradually lose identity
along about 94W by late each morning. Expect a ne-e-se 15-20 kt
wind shift along the trough axis, except 20 to 25 kt along the n
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and again on Mon
evening, with guidance hinting that these brief strong conditions
will not develop again till Fri evening. Expect seas to build
briefly to 6 ft just w of these peak winds.

55W AND 64W...

Atlc ridge is centered on a 1024 mb high in central Atlc near
29N45W and extending WSW to old frontal zone just E of central
Bahamas. A second weak 1017 mb high is over the E Gulf of Mex,
with resultant pressure gradient across the Carib basin weak
today. ASCAT passes show moderate to fresh trades across central
portions with seas generally 5-6 ft and likely max of 8 ft this
morning that may now be slightly lower. Gulf of Honduras winds
and seas have abated from fresh to strong last night. pair of
tropical waves moving through E part of basin attm, one along
63-64W and interacting with broad upper trough for scattered
cnvtn, and a second low lat wave along 51-52W and mainly
producing weather near the ITCZ. SAL appears to follow this wave.
Moderate to fresh Ely trades across the Atlc only producing 5-7
ft seas across tropical atlc waters.

high pressure will support fresh e trades, with
5-8 ft seas, across the central Caribbean through Tue morning,
with strong nocturnal trades within about 90 nm of the nw coast
of Colombia and across the Gulf of Venezuela. The pressure
gradient will tighten on Tue, with strong e winds expanding n
from the Colombian coast to along 15N between about 70W and 77W
on Wed, and expanding further n and further w on Thu with seas
building to 11 ft near 13N75W. Strong nocturnal e to se trades
forecast across the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night. Tropical
waves over the e Caribbean and over the tropical waters e of the
Windwards, will continue westward accompanied by a moderate to
fresh ne-e-se wind shift and only a slight enhancement of

The Atlc ridge will build wwd along 27-28N next few days and
tighten pres gradient by Tue-Wed, as 2 tropical waves are moving
through central Carib. This should yield much enhanced winds and
seas across the central Carib and models suggest wind wax a bit N
of typical climo position. Seas to build to 8-10 ft in this zone
on Wed.


Frontal remnants extend from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas
and have almost dissipated W of 65W. Atlc ridge to the E extends
WSW to the frontal boundary and will begin to build W along
27-28N next few days and freshen the trades S of 23N, with
diurnal heating inducing the typical area of strong winds along
the n coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evenings
beginning on Mon. Moderate SW flow is forecast N of the ridge.
Tropical wave moisture and energy remain embedded in tropics and
not expected to impact Greater Antilles or Atlc waters.


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by


55W AND 64W...



*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:

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