Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 231708
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1208 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-high confidence.

A 1001 mb surface low moved e across Fl overnight. A moderate to
fresh nw to n breeze expected across the e gulf through this
evening, while moderate to fresh return flow develops over the
western waters ahead of a cold front moving off the Tx coast on
Fri morning. Model guidance has slowed the movement of the
front, and now expect it to pass through the Fl Straits late Sat
night, but leave some remnants across the sw gulf waters. These
frontal remnants should lift n on Sun as a weak warm front, with
fresh to strong se winds n of the front. A weak cold front will
move off the Tx coast on Mon morning and stall across the nw
waters late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A stationary front extends e to w across the waters ne of the
Leewards, and will be accompanied by locally BKN/OVC low-mid
level clouds and scattered showers for the next days.

A cold front over the nw Caribbean will stall from e Cuba to
extreme e Honduras late Fri, and gradually wash out through Sat.
A fresh to locally strong sw-w-nw wind shift is expected along
the front through early afternoon, with strong southerly flow
continuing e of the front across the s approach to the Windward
Passage through this evening.

Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the nw coast of Colombia
on Sat night with gale conditions possible on Sun and Mon nights.
Fresh to locally strong ne flow expected across the n-central
Caribbean, and to the lee of Cuba on Sun night. Fresh to strong
trades expected across the entire area on Mon night, except
moderate se flow across the nw Caribbean.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A surface low moving off the Fl coast at 28N will move ne
passing through 31N73W early Sat while trailing a cold front to
e Cuba. A warm front will extend ese from the low with strong to
near gale force e to se winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft forecast
across the waters n and e of the low and fronts to along 68W,
with an embedded swath of gale force winds that will shift ne of
the area on Fri night.

A secondary cold front will move into the far nw waters on Sat
night accompanied briefly by strong nw post-frontal flow. Fresh
return flow will develop w of 75W on Sun night as a ridge
forms from Bermuda to central Fl.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     Gale Warning today.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     Gale Warning today into Fri.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning tonight into Fri.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     Gale Warning today.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning tonight.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.


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