Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 051715
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND ECMWF
WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...THE WESTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
AS A RESULT EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE E TO SE TRADES
WILL PREVAIL S OF 26N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NW GULF. MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN EACH NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATING IN
THE SW GULF DURING THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS CLOSE TO THE TROUGH AXIS EACH NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND ECMWF
WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA
ALIGNED ALONG 30N AND LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THU...WITH MINIMAL GALES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES 60W. THE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANT IN THE
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY STARTING MON AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE
FORCE WINDS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 15 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DOES NOT APPEAR IN THE OFFING AFTER MON MORNING.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY WILL REACH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND MOVE W OF 85W WED NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON...MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TUE AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND ECMWF
WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 30N WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
ALLOW MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 27N AND GENTLE SE TO S WINDS N
OF 27N TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING NE OF THE AREA MON AND TUE WILL SHIFT
THE HIGH WESTWARD TUE THROUGH THU. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER
WINDS SHRINKING CLOSER TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON NIGHT THROUGH
THU AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING
COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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