Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 240638
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TRANQUIL PERIOD CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH MON NIGHT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 27N.
MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAVE OPENED INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE. THE 00Z MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE.
THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 0110 UTC AND 0158 UTC SHOW 20-22 KT WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS N OF 15N AND WESTWARD TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO.
THE GFS APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAK WITH ITS INITIALIZATION FROM
ANGUILLA TO SAINT JOHN...CARRYING THE STRONGER SWATH OF WINDS
FARTHER S IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N. THE ASCAT PASS
MISSED THE AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION E OF THE ISLANDS WHERE THE
GFS DEPICTS 25 KT WINDS BETWEEN 14.5N-16N. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TOWARD THE ASCAT PASSES...BUT OVERALL THE GFS SEEMS
REASONABLY WELL INITIALIZED. AN ALTIKA PASS FROM 2206 UTC ALONG
58W SHOWED SEAS TO 10 FT NEAR 14.5N IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE GFS. THE MWW3 DEPICTS SEAS TO 9 FT. THE EC WAVE CAPS SEAS
AT 8 FT WHILE THE UKMET WAVE SHOWS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE MWW3...BUT
DEPICTS ITS HIGHEST SEAS E OF THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE
NWPS IS 1-2 FT LOWER THAN THE MWW3 HERE...SO THE MWW3 WAS RELIED
ON MORE INITIALLY FOR WAVES. ONCE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE GFS
GRADUALLY SLOWS THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON GYRE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC.
THE ECMWF NEVER ALLOWS WINDS TO REACH 25 KT WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE
THE GFS DEPICTS A SWATH PASSING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN HOW WELL THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HANG ON...THE STRONGER GFS FORECAST LOOKS
MORE REASONABLE.

ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE
0250 UTC ASCAT-B PASS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS HERE ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON-MON. THE 00Z GFS NOW CARRIES ONE BARB ON GALE FORCE
WINDS EARLY SAT MORNING HERE...BUT IT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE. WILL NOT BITE ON ISSUING A GALE WARNING OFF
COLOMBIA EARLY SAT MORNING. THE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHRINK FROM THE WEEKEND INTO MON
WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS AS TROUGHING BUILDS
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST
THE FORECAST.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE NORTH END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TO PASS INTO THE ATLC WATERS N OF
PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY...ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA FRI AND
TO JUST N OF CUBA SAT. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL GRIDS ALLOW A FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE TO BUILD N OF PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD IN THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY THROUGH
SUN...DIMINISHING WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS AS
TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. IN
ADDITION...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN
FRESH TO STRONG HERE THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. AGAIN...THE UKMET AND GFS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH THE
ECMWF SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THE STRONG GFS HAS DONE A REASONABLE JOB
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INITIALIZING THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
HERE. ITS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE.

TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NW WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MON WITH WINDS REACHING AS HIGH AS A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
FOR NOW...HAVE NO REASON TO GO AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION WHEN
ADJUSTING THE FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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