Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 290804
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODEL CONSENSUS

LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS NEARLY WASHED OUT...WITH REMNANT
TROUGH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
25N88.5W...AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED BY THIS EVENING PER THE GFS.
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH RUNS PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FEATURE FROM
NEAR MOBILE BAY TO TAMPICO...WITH ACTIVE CNVTN CONTINUING ON THE
SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST PER RECENT STLT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE N GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST PROBLEM NOW BECOMES ERIKA. LATEST NHC FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE GFS CLOSELY AND HAS SHIFTED WWD YET AGAIN AND NOW EXITING
CUBA NEAR LA HABANA AND MOVING NNW TOWARD FL PANHANDLE. GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS WITH THIS DISRUPTED SYSTEM...I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISEDTO SEE THIS TREND OF SHIFTING WWD TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW
RUNS...AND THUS ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF
SHOULD MONITOR ERIKA. NWPS WILL NOT BE BACK IN TIME FOR USE ON
THIS PACKAGE AND WILL HAVE TO RELY ON 06Z WW3. SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

WHERE IS ERIKA NOW AND WHAT IS LEFT AFTER PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA.
FIRST INSPECTION OF STLT DATA SUGGESTS ORIGINAL CENTER OF 48
HOURS AGO NOW A REMNANT TROUGH ALONG 75W AND MOVING INTO ERN COAST
OF CUBA. HOWEVER STLT IMAGERY AND OCCASIONAL RADAR IMAGES FROM
CUBA SUGGEST NEWER CENTER OF ERIKA CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE CNVTN AND HAS EMERGED FROM LARGE CDO ACROSS W
COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI AND NEARING THE SW TIP OF THE TIBURON
PENINSULA AND MOVING WWD TOWARD CARIB APPROACH TO WINDWARD
PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIB DOWN THIS
MORNING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE FLOW...AND WERE ONLY 15-20 KT
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA PER A 02Z ASCAT PASS. LATEST NHC FORECAST
MOVING ERIKA ALONG SE COAST OF CUBA AND THEN COMPLETELY INLAND
NEAR 80W. THUS WIND AND SEAS TO INCREASE QUICKLY NW WATERS TODAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH NELY FLOW AHEAD OF ERIKA. WEAK
ATLC RIDGING TO BUILD INTO BAHAMAS BEHIND ERIKA TONIGHT AND SUN
AND INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN FOR BROAD ZONE OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CENTRAL PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH WED. WINDS COULD PEAK NEAR 30 KT
TONIGHT THERE.
NEXT LARGE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WILL ENTER THE CARIB LATER TODAY...REACH NEAR 63-64W THIS
EVENING...70W SUN EVENING...AND 76W MON EVENING. SHARP LOW TO MOD
TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN PRES
GRADIENT AT SFC SLIGHTLY DURING PASSAGE. THE FOLLOWING WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ATLC EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON
AND MON NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS
5 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

STRONG WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH OLD VORTEX OF ERIKA MOVING
THROUGH SE BAHAMAS ATTM...WITH BROADER WIND FIELD OF 20-30 KT
EXTENDING NE AND OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS. EVENING ALTIMETER PASS
SUGGESTED 10-12 FT SEAS PROPAGATING NW OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. THIS
WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO MOVE NW AND ACROSS REMAINDER OF BAHAMAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND INTO SE FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...
ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH
SW OF BERMUDA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NE
GULF UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FAR NW PORTIONS
THROUGH MON. SFC PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ERIKA AND RIDGE TO PRODUCE
FRESH TRADES SE PORTIONS TONIGHT AND SUN THEN BECOMING MODERATE TO
FRESH MON-TUE...WITH LATE AFTERNOON EVENING WIND MAX EXPECTED
ALONG N COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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