Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 260741
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A NEW COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE GULF REACHING FROM 30N83W TO
26N92W TO 26N97W. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER
PASSES SHOW FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT AND FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS N OF 26N AHEAD OF IT. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT N OF 25N.
S OF THE FRONT...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED IN THE W CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 23N96W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE E TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
S OF 25N ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 25N81W TO
22N87W TO 20N95W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE BASIN THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WHILE RESIDUAL NW SWELL SUBSIDES TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE HIGH IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WILL LINGER IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THROUGH WED MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE
NE GULF WATERS TUE...PUSHING E OF THE GULF BY WED MORNING. EXPECT
A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE E OF 86W.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE
WED WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BY WED NIGHT ALONG WITH 1-3
FT SEAS...EXCEPT UP TO 4-5 FT IN THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF THU NIGHT REACHING FROM
APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS BY FRI MORNING
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ONLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT UNLIKE THE PRECEDING FRONTAL
PASSAGES.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS
NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 8-11 FT. WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AT 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS DURING PEAK
NOCTURNAL FLOW. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT NEAR THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT (MON NIGHT) THROUGH WED...THEN WILL INCREASE BACK
TO 20-30 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS YET AGAIN.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. THIS FRONT IS
LOSING DEFINITION AND WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CLIP THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

A VERY SHARP PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA CARIBBEAN COASTS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WITHIN 60-90 NM
OFFSHORE TUE MORNING THROUGH THU MORNING WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 8-10 FT.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT AND EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO CUBA NEAR
22N77W. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT IN THE NW CORNER OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AHEAD
OF IT AND ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM
31N76W TO 28N78W TO 25N81W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM 31N66W TO
28N68W TO 24N71W TO 20N76W LATE TONIGHT (MON NIGHT)...THEN FROM
31N62W TO 27N65W TO 20N71W TUE EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 18 FT
NEAR 30N74W LATE TONIGHT...THEN UP TO 20 FT NEAR 31N71W BY SUNRISE
TUE.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION TUE MORNING
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
THAT NEXT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED
MORNING...THEN WILL MERGE WITH AND OVERTAKE THE OLD FRONT AS IT
EXITS TO THE E OF 65W BY THU MORNING.

THESE ACTIVE CONDITIONS FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
THU MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HILTON HEAD SOUTH CAROLINA TO 23N65W BY
12 UTC THU. THIS HIGH WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SE TO NEAR 28N75W BY
FRI MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE NW PORTION AS
IT REACHES FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA FRI EVENING...
THEN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 28N THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS REMAINING N OF 30.5N.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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