Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 141912
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
212 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the basin extending from W to E along
24N. Recent scatterometer as well as buoy and ship data show
gentle to moderate winds around the high with seas of 1-3 ft
across the basin.

A pre-frontal trough is forecast to slip S into the far northern
Gulf waters this evening, with the actual cold front moving into
offshore waters overnight tonight into early on Friday. Northerly
winds will rapidly increase to fresh to near gale force behind
the front by around daybreak on Friday, then will increase to
minimal gale force offshore of Mexico, reaching to offshore of
Veracruz Friday night. Seas will build to 8-14 ft W of the front
with the strong to gale force winds. The front is forecast to
stall from near Tampa Bay, Florida to 25N95W to 19N95W by late
Friday night with models suggesting that broad and week low
pressure will possibly developing along the boundary in the SW
Gulf by early Saturday.

The low is then forecast to move northward into the NW Gulf
through Sat evening with SE-S flow on the eastern side of the
low increasing to fresh to strong. The low will then move inland
over eastern Texas through Sunday morning, where it will then
linger along with broad troughing over the coastal plain into
early next week. Atlc high pressure that ridges westward across
the area will block the trough from proceeding eastward across
the forecast waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A frontal trough is over the western Caribbean Sea extending
from just SW of Jamaica to central Panama. Ascat data from
overnight last night showed fresh to strong northerly flow
within 180 nm W of the trough axis, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere W of the trough. Seas are 6-8 ft W of the trough where
now moderate to fresh N-NE winds are present. Seas of 4-6 ft are
elsewhere W of the trough. Moderate to fresh trades are E of the
trough across the remainder of the Caribbean, with 4-5 ft seas,
except for lower seas of 3-4 ft N of 15N E of 76W.

The trough will dissipate by late tonight, and the seas of 6-8 ft
will subside to 5-7 ft. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient will
tighten beginning over the S central Caribbean where trades will
increase to fresh to strong, highest of the trades along and
near the NW coast of coast of Colombia where seas will build to
7-10 ft. The gradient will continue to strengthen through the
weekend and gale force winds are forecast to pulse NW of the
Colombian coast Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night.
Seas will build to 9-14 ft in S central portions with the highest
of these seas near the coast of Colombia. These seas may
possibly build slightly higher on Sunday night before lowering
early next week.


The fresh to strong trades will expand in coverage during the
weekend into early next week, covering the entire central and SW
Caribbean Saturday night through Tuesday night, with plumes of
fresh to strong winds also across the approach to the Windward
Passage, in the lee of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A cold front is slowing down from near 27N65W SW across the SE
Bahamas and to central Cuba. Relatively weak high pressure is
behind the front. with high pressure ridging extending from the
SE Gulf of Mexico to across the central Bahamas in the wake of
the front. Ascat Scatterometer and surface observations indicate
mainly gentle to moderate winds W of the front. Large northerly
swell covers the NE waters, up to 8-14 ft which will decay
through tonight, with seas of 4-7 ft elsewhere.

Winds will increase to the fresh category on the NW and N
central waters as another weak frontal boundary moves by N of the
area, with little impact initially to the waters S of 31N
through Fri. The boundary is then forecast to drop S of 31N
Friday night through Saturday night, with winds increasing to
fresh to strong, and seas building to 8-10 ft N of 29N E of 77W.
These conditions then shift to the far NE portion of the forecast
waters on Saturday, and to E of those waters on early on Sunday.

High pressure will then build down from the N in the wake of the
front, with ridging settling along 28N for the second half of
the weekend into early next week. This should usher in fairly
tranquil marine conditions across the basin for the start of
next week.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning Fri into Fri night.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
 Gale Warning W of 96W.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
 Gale Warning.
 Gale Conditions Possible Sat. night.
 Gale Conditions Possible Sun. night.
 Gale Conditions Possible Mon. night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.


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