Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 290752
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEAKLY WSW ACROSS WRN ATLC AND ACROSS NE
GULF TO NEAR 90W THIS MORNING...WITH 1016 MB HIGH ALONG W COAST OF
FL N OF TAMPA BAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING NEARLY N
TO S ACROSS MEXICO AIDING IN MAINTAINING MODERATE SELY WINDS NW
QUARTER OF BASIN. SEAS ARE 4-5 FT OVER MUCH OF W HALF OF BASIN
ATTM...WITH 42002 RECENTLY REACHING 6 FT. RECENT OBS AND GOES-R
FOG-LOW STRATUS IMAGERY INDICATING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PREVAILING
ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF SHELF WATERS...WITH VSBYS 3-5 NM...WITH
LOWEST VSBYS SUGGESTED ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS W AND SW U.S.
AND INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL NOT ALTER SURFACE
SCENARIO MUCH ACROSS THE GULF. RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT TO DAY AND
WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. WINDS FORECAST TO
FRESHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS WRN TWO-THIRDS OF GULF
BASIN...WITH SE WINDS 20-25 KT DEVELOPING NW PORTIONS...AND
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS YUCATAN TO YIELD WINDS 20-30 KT OFF N END OF
PENINSULA. WAVE MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING REASONABLE JOB WITH WAVE
GROWTH ACROSS THESE AREA...POSSIBLY A FOOT LOW IN PEAK WIND
AREAS...WITH SEAS 8-9 FT EXPECTED NW PORTIONS AND BRIEFLY 6-8 FT
OFF NW YUCATAN. WW3 APPEARS TO BE HIGHER AND PREFERRED TO ECWAVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SFC LOW TO TRACK NE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUN AND WILL DRAG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO ERN TEXAS SAT WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY
STALL...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SE TO COASTAL PLAINS OF TX AND LA
THROUGH MON AS LOW MOVES NE INTO MID ATLC STATES. INVERTED TROUGH
PERSISTING W AND SW PORTIONS WILL MAINTAIN SELY RETURN FLOW INTO
SUN SPREADING INTO ERN PORTIONS...THEN BACK E TO SE BY MON AS
FRONT LAYS DOWN ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS OF N GULF STATES. FRONT MAY
FINALLY SINK INTO N COASTAL WATERS TUE MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND
BECOMING DIFFUSE. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A WEAK ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ON A HIGH E OF BERMUDA...COUPLED WITH BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RATHER
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. FRESH E TO SE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS TO 6
FT...WHILE THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS S ALONG ABOUT 50W AND IS
PRODUCING FRESH ENE TRADES ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS...AND TO LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE SE CARIB E OF 72W. BROAD
INVERTED TROUGHING INDUCED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC INVOF 70W WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUN BEFORE FLATTENING AND SHIFTING WWD SUN NIGHT
AND MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE
CARIB...INCREASING TO SOLID 20-25 KT SUN AND SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT
THERE. MEANWHILE...SUFFICIENT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEN
PORTIONS FOR NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

MID ATLC CUT OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM HISPANIOLA AND PR NE
INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WITH A SERIES OF LLVL TROUGHS STRUNG OUT
ACROSS THIS AREA. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC WSW ACROSS
BERMUDA TO S CENTRAL FL...WITH TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE
INTERRUPTED BY THESE INDUCED LLVL TROUGHS...AND YIELDING TRADES
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. OBS SUGGESTS SEAS 4-5 FT S OF THE RIDGE
AND E OF BAHAMAS ATTM. RIDGE TO RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE LLVL TROUGHS DRIFT WWD AND WEAKEN...AND WILL MAINTAIN MILD
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY SEEN. LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO SHIFT ENE
OFF HATTERAS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH BEHIND LOW
SUN BUILDING S ACROSS PORTIONS W OF 70W TO PRODUCE MODERATE ELY
TRADES S OF 27N SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE OFF MID ATLC COAST MON AND DRAG WEAK FRONT
INTO SE U.S. COASTAL WATERS. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AND WED WITH GFS SHOWING BOUNDARY MAKING IT TO
GULF COASTS AND N FL WHILE ECMWF APPROACHES THIS AREA BUT LIFTS
QUICKLY BACK TO N IN INCREASING SLY FLOW WED. ENS MEANS LOOK MORE
SIMILAR TO ECMWF ATTM AND WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION BEYOND MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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