Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 041934
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
234 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A stationary front over the western basin will transition to a
cold front through tonight as low pressure crosses northern Mexico
and merges with the frontal system over the western basin late
tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue into this
evening over the northeast Gulf, as return flow draws northward
around Atlantic high pressure, to a stationary front just inland
over the northern Gulf coast. On Monday, the low will track
northeast across the northwestern Gulf and drag the cold front
across the western Gulf. Fresh to strong northwest winds are
expected behind the front on Monday. The low will move inland
later on Monday and continue to drag the front eastward through
Monday night with the front gradually weakening as it crosses the
eastern Gulf into Tuesday. Expect widespread shower and
thunderstorms developing across the northern Gulf as the front
moves across the basin.

After a lull in activity Tuesday evening through Wednesday, a
strong cold front will emerge off the coast of Texas and Louisiana
late Wednesday night. This front will rapidly cross the Gulf basin
Thursday. Strong high pressure will build southeast toward the
northern Gulf behind the front. This will support gale force winds
across the western Gulf south of about 26N Thursday into Thursday
night. Strong to near gale northeasterly winds are expected across
much of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front through
Thursday night, tapering off into the day Friday as the high
weakens slightly and moves northeast of the Gulf basin.

This forecast package continues to show gale conditions possible
across forecast zones GMZ017 and GMZ023 Thursday into Thursday
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

An area of diffluence aloft will continue to support enhanced
shower and thunderstorm activity over the northwestern Gulf
through tonight. A pair of surface troughs over the eastern
Caribbean will dissipate tonight, while another surface trough
just east of the Lesser Antilles crosses the islands late tonight
with showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure building
over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong
trades over the waters north of the Colombia coast and across the
Gulf of Honduras through Monday night. The fresh to strong winds
will become confined to the central Caribbean with the stronger
winds along the northern coast of Colombia Tuesday through
Thursday night, as the high to the north slides eastward. Late
Thursday night, a cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean
with fresh to strong northeast winds north of the front.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Large northwest swell generated by a storm system well northeast
of the forecast zones will continue to affect the northwestern
zones through Monday.

A cold front east of the Bahamas will continue to move southeast
and cross the southeastern zones through the early half of the
week. High pressure over the northern zones will slide southeast
through Tuesday, with return flow developing to the west of the
high. The return flow will increase to 20 to 25 kt with seas
building to 8 to 9 ft offshore north Florida late Monday night as
the pressure gradient tightens between the high to the east and
low pressure over the eastern United States. By Tuesday night a
cold front will begin to cross the northern zones. The post-
frontal winds will continue to support an eastward propagating
area of seas 8 to 9 ft over the northern zones Tuesday through
Wednesday night. The southern portion of this cold front will
stall out from south Florida to just northeast of the Bahamas mid
week. Then, a strong cold front will cross the northwestern zones
late Thursday, merging with the stationary front Thursday night.
Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected northwest of this
second cold front starting on Friday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     Gale conditions possible Thu into Thu night.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     Gale conditions possible Thu night into Fri night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.


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