Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
000
AGXX40 KNHC 220739
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
20-25 KT AND 8 FT FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING
OVER THE N CENTRAL TO NE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE W PORTION...LOW CONFIDENCE E PORTION.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST E OF ST
MARTIN. 0110 UTC AND 0158 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW WINDS ONLY TO 25
KT N OF THE SYSTEM AND SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. AIR CRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE AROUND 18Z YESTERDAY HAD FOUND 40 KT WINDS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT DETERMINED THE CIRCULATION WAS
UNORGANIZED. GALE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED BASED ON THE RECON.
CONFIDENCE HAS WANED IN THE EXISTENCE OF GALES ATTM. AFRAID TO
COMPLETELY DISMISS THE PREVIOUS GALE WARNING...WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH
00Z SUN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED UNTIL IT PULLS AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA LATER ON SAT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
THE GALE AROUND ANOTHER 12 HOURS UNTIL IT GETS CLOSER TO
HISPANIOLA. THIS ALSO GIVES THE DAY SHIFT SOME WIGGLE ROOM WITH
THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM IN CASE IT INTENSIFIES LATER TODAY. WILL
HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT THEREAFTER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM LATE
SAT ONWARD. THE 00Z GFS IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE WPC/NHC
COORDINATED FORECAST WHILE THE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CARIBBEAN. THE
00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND NAVGEM TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA BEGINNING SUN WHILE THE UKMET AND CMC ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE MORE WESTERLY...SLOWLY PASSING THROUGH CUBA SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. THE UKMET AND CMC APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS. THE GFS AND
NWPS WERE PRIMARILY USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS EXPLAINED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE GFS IS CLOSE TO THE
NHC/WPC COORDINATED FORECAST POINTS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING LOW CURRENTLY JUST E OF ST MARTIN MAKE THEIR WAY
TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE AND JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. THE WESTERN
SOLUTIONS OF THE UKMET AND CMC WERE DISREGARDED. THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A SLOWER NORTHWARD TURN INTO THE LEADING EDGE
OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC BEGINNING SUN. IT
IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE 00Z
NAVGEM HAS ALSO SLOWED DOWN...BUT NOW SWINGS THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS AND INTENSIFIES IT CLOSER TO THE U.S. COAST WED
COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE. THE GFS WAS
USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST...WITH A TRACK CLOSER TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND PREFERRED BY THE NHC/WPC COORDINATED FORECAST BY TUE. THIS
IS WHEN THE GFS SWINGS THE TRACK MORE EASTERLY AS THE SYSTEM IS
PICKED UP BY THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.