Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 221046
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
646 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 22/06
UTC: A MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS TO QUICKLY PULL AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE...AND THIS PATTERN IS TO THEN HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN A FAIRLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS INVERSION...CAPPING MOISTURE TO ATMOSPHERE
BELOW 800 HPA. AT LOW LEVELS...A HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
WILL BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL SUSTAIN A BRISK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES...WITH 850 HPA WINDS FORECAST
TO PEAK AT 20-25KT. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN ADIABATIC COMPRESSION
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...AND AS
IT COMBINES WITH A DENSE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ENTRAINING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT WILL GENERALLY FAVOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BOTTOM LINE: EXPECTING HOT...DRY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 96 HRS.

GAJADHAR...SLMS (SAINT LUCIA)
SUBRATH-ALI...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$




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