Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
637 AM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 02/06
UTC: MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS ENHANCED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE TROUGH
IS TO LIFT ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. AT LOW LEVELS...A LONG FETCH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...ADVECTING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT CONTINUES TO FEED PERIODS OF ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION. LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WITH A DECREASE IN CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO WANE. MEANWHILE...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA...WITH RAINFALL
MAXIMA EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 2-4 INCHES.

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...DRIVING A POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS-CUBA TO HISPANIOLA LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS WEST...EXPECTING A DECREASE IN DIURNAL
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM MAY 02/12UTC:

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC.
INITIAL    24    36    48    60    72    84    96         TYPE
NONE

CARDOS...SMN (MEXICO)
CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$





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