Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 042019
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED MARCH 04 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 14 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH OVER
EASTERN ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA,
SPLIT-FLOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO MEXICO, AND A TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHERN TEXAS BY MOST MODELS, AND POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN
REGIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS, AS WELL AS A SMALL PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND,
UNDER NEAR OR BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS. PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ALOFT ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REST OF THE
CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTH SLOPE, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE PACIFIC COASTAL REGION FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD, AS WELL AS FOR PARTS OF ALASKA INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FROM THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST, DOWNSTREAM OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS AND AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 18 2015

ENSEMBLE MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD, AS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PROGRESS EASTWARD TO BE
CENTERED OVER PRIMARILY THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.

FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, THERE ARE ONLY SMALL CHANGES
IN THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN OVER THE U.S., WHILE THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE NO LONGER ENHANCED OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY, AS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED TO INCREASE. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE WEST AS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES DECREASE IN MODEL
FORECASTS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR A LARGER AREA OF THE WEST
WITH DECREASING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASING FOR THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A RELATIVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, THAT IS MOST LIKELY IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, IS LESS LIKELY IN
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION AND ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN
FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890213 - 19660214 - 19560311 - 20060219 - 19670306


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890212 - 20060219 - 19890217 - 20020304 - 19670307


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 14 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    B
VERMONT     N    B     NEW HAMP    N    B     MAINE       N    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 18 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    N    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        N    B     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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