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FXUS06 KWBC 311901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI OCTOBER 31 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 10 2014

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN, AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS AND
ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE
LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MORE
WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE
PAST 60 DAYS AS ASSESSED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.

RIDGING OVER WEST COAST OF THE CONUS LEADS TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, AS WELL AS FLORIDA AND MAINE, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS
REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CONUS. NEAR- TO
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
FLORIDA, AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO EXIT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS
REFORECAST GUIDANCE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 14 2014

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MORE WEIGHTING
WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE PAST 60
DAYS AS ASSESSED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.

THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
RIDGING OVER WEST COAST OF THE CONUS LEADS TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVOR FOR
MOST OF ALASKA, FLORIDA AND MAINE, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND
BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE ALSO SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET
FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CONUS. INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ARE
RELATED TO EXPECTED RAINFALL ON DAY 8 AND INFLUENCE FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
LATER IN WEEK-2. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED
FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.


FORECASTER: LUKE HE

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20011027 - 19711108 - 19801107 - 20081030 - 19731015


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20081030 - 19731018 - 20011027 - 19891019 - 19711107


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 10 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 14 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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