Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXSA20 KWBC 141323
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
922 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 14 JULY 00UTC): THE 200 HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ILL ORGANIZED CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFINING TO
AMAZONAS/ACRE IN WESTERN BRASIL-PERU...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS PARA. IN THIS PATTERN...WIDELY ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION DOTS EQUATORIAL SOUTH AMERICA. OTHER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF BRASIL ASSOCIATES WITH TRADE WIND
EASTERLY CONVERGENCE.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE 48S 102W...ALONG
44S 98W...35S 88W...36S 78W...45S 75W...55S 70W...A 132KT MAXIMUM
AT 60S 63W...62S 42W...EXITING AT 59S 19W. THE NORTHERN POLAR LIES
ALONG 38S 120W...40S 109W...37S 96W...A 168KT MAXIMUM AT 34S
92W...31S 81W...A 127KT MAXIMUM AT 32S 77W...36S 72W...EXITING AT
45S 68W. IT HAS A FINGER TO THE EAST WITH ENTRANCE AT 38S
55W...ALONG 34S 52W...EXITING AT 31S 47W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO
THE NORTH HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 20S 46W...ALONG 20S 39W...21S
30W...22S 20W...26S 09W...AND 29S 03W.

AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH NOW EXTENDS BETWEEN 100W-70W TO 22S...WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY FOCUSING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHILE TO
ARGENTINA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN BRASIL PRECEDES THIS
AXIS...AS IT EXTENDS NORTH ALONG 53W/54W. A HIGHER AMPLITUDE
TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST...EXTENDING BETWEEN 40W-00W AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 20S.

POLAR FRONT ENTERED THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA...AS IT
EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 984 HPA LOW AT 51S 78W...ALONG A 990 HPA
LOW AT 57S 67W...55S 65W...53S 67W...A 998 HPA LOW AT 51S
69W...45S 66W...39S 69W...A 1002 HPA LOW AT 41S 75W...39S
73W...36S 73W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 34S 77W...25S 82W...AND 21S 90W.
THIS SUSTAINS SCATTERED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CHILE. AN OLD BOUNDARY TO THE EAST EXTENDS FROM A 1014 HPA LOW
AT 56S 42W...51S 45W...49S 52W...A 1018 HPA LOW AT 41S 57W...35S
51W...TO CENTRAL MESOPOTAMIA IN ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORS ON A 1037 HPA HIGH AT 44S 40W. A BROAD
TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST...CENTERING ON AN OCCLUDED 998 HPA LOW AT
46S 15W. A POLAR FRONT EMBEDS IN THIS FLOW AS IT EXTENDS ALONG A
1002 HPA LOW AT 45S 05W...37S 05W...34S 08W...A 1018 HPA LOW AT
31S 13W...25S 19W...22S 22W...20S 29W...TO ESPIRITO SANTO.
FURTHERMORE...A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 22S 22W TO
SALVADOR DE BAHIA...WHERE IT SUSTAINS SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$




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