Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 290737
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VALID 12Z FRI JUL 29 2016 - 12Z SUN JUL 31 2016

...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS LIKELY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY...


NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE.  MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL HELP PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF HIGH HUMIDITY TO WORK WITH SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.  PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST U.S., AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAVE SLIGHT
RISK AREAS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY.

DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR THE GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA, WITH PEAK COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT
AIR MASS WILL BE ENJOYED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.  HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS WITH NO MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS FOR
ORGANIZED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE
ELEVATED REGIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WITH MOISTURE FROM THE
MONSOON.  A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

HAMRICK



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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