Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS

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766
FXUS02 KWNH 070408
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1108 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

VALID 12Z WED FEB 10 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 14 2016

...RESPECTABLE COLD SHOT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE US
NEXT WEEKEND...


...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO RUN JUST A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS CONSENSUS, NEAR WHICH LIES THE
ECMWF. USED THAT GROUPING AS A STARTING POINT TO THE FORECAST.
THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

OVERALL FAIRLY DRY OUTSIDE THE GREAT LAKES (LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS) AND
THE PAC NW BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WEST OUTSIDE SOME SHELTERED INTERIOR VALLEYS
-- WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS MIDWEEK -- BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARD
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MIDWEEK AND
THEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST SAT/SUN.


FRACASSO

$$





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