Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 240658
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI OCT 24 2014 - 12Z SAT OCT 25 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...SOUTH FLORIDA...

25-30 KT LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG AND N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL FOCUS THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY (MAINLY THROUGH 18Z)...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SE
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/MCV LIFTS NE FROM CUBA TO THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS. AS THIS FEATURES LIFTS NE...THE SWATH OF HIGHER
PWATS (2.25-2.40") WILL PIVOT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA... AGAIN SE FL IN
PARTICULAR. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CLIMB TO ABOVE 14000
FT AND...AT LEAST IN A NARROW STRIPE ACROSS S/SE FL...MUCAPES
RANGE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG PER CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THE
LATEST WRF-ARW. THIS ALONG WITH THE PERIOD OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (AND INCREASED UPWIND PROPAGATION) WILL MAKE FOR TRAINING
OF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER PER THE MAJORITY OF HIGH RES
(4KM) GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4+ INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SHORT TERM RUNOFF ISSUES (THOUGH
MORE OF AN URBAN FLOOD THREAT VS. FLASH FLOOD).

HURLEY
$$





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