River Forecast
Issued by NWS

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820
FGUS53 KMSR 191525
RVFSMW

RIVER FORECAST
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
925 AM CST MON FEB 19 2018

: THIS PRODUCT HAS PRELIMINARY DATA THAT MAY BE SUBJECT TO REVISION.
: REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WFO FOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL RIVER FORECAST.
:
: NOTE...  This product includes observed precipitation, plus
:          forecast precipitation for the next 48 Hours.
:
: -------------------------------------------------------------------
: Complicated forecast with high QPF of 1.50-2.10 inches over
: 48 hours, plus rapid snowmelt, PLUS frozen ground. Model indicating
: some very high runoff rates. Forecasts ended up similar to last
: evening, with similar QPF utilized. A bit worried that we could see
: higher stages if frozen ground results in more runoff and at a fast
: rate. Will monitor the response we get in the next 6-12 hours to
: see if adjustments are needed.
: -------------------------------------------------------------------
:
: Chippewa R  Mt Pleasant MI - MPTM4
: HSA:GRR   Flood Stage:8.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:6.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A MPTM4  0222 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFFX  7.4
:
.E MPTM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7
.E MPTM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  3.7/ 3.7/ 3.8/ 4.1/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 5.6/ 6.1
.E1  6.6/ 7.0/ 7.2/ 7.3/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.3
.E1  7.2/ 7.0/ 6.8/ 6.6/ 6.4/ 6.2/ 6.1/ 6.0
.E1  5.8/ 5.7/ 5.6/ 5.5/
:
:
: Pine R  Alma MI - ALMM4
: HSA:GRR   Flood Stage:8.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:7.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A ALMM4  0221 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFFX  7.2
:
.E ALMM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9
.E ALMM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  3.0/ 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.3/ 5.2/ 6.0/ 6.6/ 7.0
.E1  7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.1/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.7/ 6.5
.E1  6.3/ 6.2/ 6.0/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.6/ 5.5/ 5.4
.E1  5.4/ 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.2/
:
:
: Tittabawassee R  Midland MI - MIDM4
: HSA:DTX   Flood Stage:24.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:20.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A MIDM4  0222 Z DH12/DC02191520/HGIFFX  24.0
:
.E MIDM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  12.7/ 12.5/ 12.0/ 11.8
.E MIDM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  11.7/ 11.8/ 11.9/ 12.5/ 13.9/ 16.0/ 18.2/ 20.6
.E1  22.7/ 23.6/ 23.9/ 24.0/ 23.8/ 23.2/ 22.6/ 22.0
.E1  21.4/ 20.7/ 20.1/ 19.5/ 18.9/ 18.3/ 17.8/ 17.4
.E1  17.0/ 16.7/ 16.4/ 16.1/
:
:
: Shiawassee R  Owosso MI - OWOM4
: HSA:DTX   Flood Stage:7.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:6.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A OWOM4  0221 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFFX  8.5
:
.E OWOM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2
.E OWOM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  3.3/ 3.8/ 4.5/ 5.3/ 6.1/ 6.8/ 7.6/ 8.2
.E1  8.5/ 8.5/ 8.4/ 8.1/ 7.8/ 7.5/ 7.3/ 7.2
.E1  7.2/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.2
.E1  7.1/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.8/
:
:
: Shiawassee R  Fergus MI - FRGM4
: HSA:DTX   Flood Stage:10.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:9.0 FT
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: No observed stages. Forecast based on model estimates.
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: CREST FORECAST
.A FRGM4  0222 Z DH06/DC02191520/HGIFFX  12.8
:
.E FRGM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  4.4/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2
.E FRGM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  4.3/ 4.7/ 5.6/ 6.8/ 8.2/ 9.4/ 10.7/ 11.8
.E1  12.4/ 12.7/ 12.8/ 12.7/ 12.5/ 12.1/ 11.7/ 11.3
.E1  10.8/ 10.5/ 10.2/ 10.1/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 9.9/ 9.9
.E1  9.9/ 9.8/ 9.7/ 9.6/
:
:
: Kearsley Cr  Davison MI - DAVM4
: HSA:DTX   Flood Stage:10.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:8.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A DAVM4  0221 Z DH06/DC02191520/HGIFFX  10.9
:
.E DAVM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  5.6/ 5.6/ 5.5/ 5.5
.E DAVM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  5.5/ 6.7/ 8.2/ 9.5/ 10.3/ 10.6/ 10.9/ 10.9
.E1  10.9/ 10.8/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.6/ 10.5/ 10.4/ 10.2
.E1  10.1/ 10.0/ 9.9/ 9.8/ 9.7/ 9.5/ 9.4/ 9.2
.E1  9.1/ 9.0/ 8.9/ 8.8/
:
:
: Flint R  Flint MI - FLTM4
: HSA:DTX   Flood Stage:13.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:11.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A FLTM4  0221 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFFX  13.5
:
.E FLTM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  4.8/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.8
.E FLTM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  4.9/ 5.3/ 6.5/ 8.2/ 9.9/ 11.3/ 12.4/ 13.2
.E1  13.5/ 13.5/ 13.2/ 13.0/ 12.8/ 12.5/ 12.2/ 11.9
.E1  11.7/ 11.5/ 11.4/ 11.3/ 11.2/ 11.2/ 11.1/ 11.1
.E1  11.0/ 11.0/ 10.9/ 10.8/
:
:
: Cass R  Cass City MI - CSSM4
: HSA:DTX   Flood Stage:14.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:12.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A CSSM4  0222 Z DH12/DC02191520/HGIFFX  14.2
:
.E CSSM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  6.9/ 6.9/ 6.8/ 6.8
.E CSSM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  6.8/ 6.8/ 6.9/ 7.1/ 7.6/ 8.9/ 10.2/ 11.5
.E1  12.5/ 13.4/ 14.0/ 14.2/ 14.0/ 13.5/ 13.0/ 12.4
.E1  11.9/ 11.4/ 10.9/ 10.4/ 10.1/ 9.8/ 9.5/ 9.2
.E1  9.0/ 8.8/ 8.5/ 8.3/
:
:
: Cass R  Vassar MI - VSSM4
: HSA:DTX   Flood Stage:14.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:12.0 FT
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: No observed stages. Forecast based on model estimates.
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: CREST FORECAST
.A VSSM4  0222 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFFX  13.9
:
.E VSSM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  4.3/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0
.E VSSM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  4.0/ 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.5/ 6.6/ 7.6/ 8.7/ 9.9
.E1  11.1/ 12.2/ 13.0/ 13.5/ 13.9/ 13.9/ 13.6/ 13.1
.E1  12.5/ 11.9/ 11.3/ 10.6/ 10.0/ 9.5/ 9.1/ 8.7
.E1  8.3/ 8.0/ 7.7/ 7.5/
:
:
: Cass R  Frankenmuth MI - FRNM4
: HSA:DTX   Flood Stage:17.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:15.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A FRNM4  0223 Z DH06/DC02191520/HGIFFX  19.9
:
.E FRNM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  7.6/ 7.5/ 7.3/ 7.1
.E FRNM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  6.9/ 7.0/ 7.3/ 8.2/ 9.7/ 11.7/ 13.6/ 15.2
.E1  16.3/ 17.2/ 18.1/ 18.9/ 19.4/ 19.8/ 19.9/ 19.8
.E1  19.5/ 19.0/ 18.4/ 17.8/ 17.2/ 16.7/ 16.1/ 15.7
.E1  15.2/ 14.8/ 14.4/ 13.9/
:
:
: Saginaw R  Saginaw MI - SAGM4
: HSA:DTX   Flood Stage:17.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:16.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A SAGM4  0223 Z DH06/DC02191520/HGIFFX  18.9
:
.E SAGM4 0218 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  14.2/ 14.4/ 14.2/ 14.4
.E SAGM4 0219 Z DH18/DC02191520/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  14.2/ 14.1/ 14.1/ 14.1/ 14.2/ 14.3/ 14.7/ 15.5
.E1  16.3/ 17.0/ 17.7/ 18.2/ 18.6/ 18.8/ 18.9/ 18.9
.E1  18.9/ 18.7/ 18.5/ 18.2/ 17.8/ 17.4/ 17.0/ 16.6
.E1  16.2/ 15.9/ 15.6/ 15.3/
:
:
:END

 NOTE...  This product includes observed precipitation, plus
          forecast precipitation for the next 48 Hours.

$$

 FCSTR EXT: 2531




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