Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 272230
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/27/15 2229Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2215Z  JS
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LOCATION...SW MINNESOTA/NW IOWA/E CENT AND NE NEBRASKA/SE SOUTH DAKOTA...
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ATTN WFOS...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES AND MESO-ANALYSIS FOR INITIATION OF POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF E NEB/SE SD/SW MN/NW IA.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CURRENTLY WATCHING SEVERAL FEATURES
WHICH WILL LIKELY COME INTO PLAY FOR THE EVENTUAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE ANIMATION AND OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WELL DEFINED SFC LOW OVER SW NEB WITH APPARENT WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NE ACROSS E
AND NE NEB INTO NW IA. IN ADDITION, ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS W SD AND A
LOWER TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVEN FARTHER UPSTREAM MOVING TO THE SE
ACROSS S CENT WY. OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALSO INDICATES AN AXIS OF HIGHER
SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60`S TO NEAR 70F ACROSS MUCH OF CENT-E NEB
INTO S CENT-SE SD WITH TRENDS FROM THE GOES SOUNDER TPW PRODUCT SHOWING
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ONGOING FROM THE CENT PLAINS NORTHWARD ON THE
NOSE OF INCREASING (NOW TO 35KTS) AND BACKING SOUTHERLY LLJ AS SEEN IN
RECENT 850MB VWP DATA FROM KUEX IN S NEB AND KTWX IN E KS. MIXING HAS
LIKELY HELPED ERODE SOME OF THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN PLACE EARLIER
IN THE DAY OVER E NEB WITH GOES SOUNDER AND GPS DATA SHOWING PW VALUES
RISING TO OVER 1.5" IN THE REGION AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING NOW UP TO
1.7" OVER CENT NEB. SOME FAVORABLE MOISTURE PARAMETERS ALSO APPEAR TO
BE EVIDENT MAINLY ABOVE 700MB WITH CONNECTION TO TROPICAL E PAC JUST
S OF BAJA IN THE CIRA LAYERED TPW PRODUCT. ALSO AT THE UPPER LEVELS,
A MAX OF DIVERGENCE IS ANALYZED IN THE CIMSS/NOAA-NSSL WIND DIVERGENCE
PRODUCT CENTERED OVER FAR E NEB/W IA.
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AT THIS TIME, SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TRYING TO FORM ALONG
AND N OF THE APPARENT WARM FRONT OVER SE SD AND A LITTLE LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER NE NEB THOUGH ENOUGH INHIBITION REMAINS AS NOTED IN THE
GOES SOUNDER CINH PRODUCT AND RAP ANALYSIS OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENT-E
NEB TO LIMIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE INCREASING SB
CAPES NOW TO 3000-3500J/KG FROM S CENT SD THROUGH S CENT NEB. HOWEVER,
EXPECTING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z, FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR FROM THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER W SD AND THE LOWER-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW MOVING SE
OVER S CENT WY. MORE EFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
WITH EVEN MORE OF AN UPTICK OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE MORE ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER SE SD/FAR NE NEB,
EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH  FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS CENT-E NEB WITH SOME THREAT
FOR BACK BUILDING/REDEVELOPMENT WHERE THE NOSE OF THE S-SW LLJ AND
COLLOCATED UPSTREAM INSTABILITY AXIS ENCOUNTERS ANY COLD POOL FORMATION
AND/OR S-SW PERIPHERY OF ANY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER CENT-E NEB.
HAVE DISCUSSED THIS WITH THE WPC MPD FORECASTER WHO INDICATED AN MPD
COULD BE ISSUED IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4392 9726 4366 9531 4242 9496 4145 9559 4106 9664
4101 9804 4166 9918 4301 9910
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