Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 290541
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
VIZ000-PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/29/16 0541Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES 13: 0530Z MICHAEL
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC
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EVENT...INCREASING THREAT FOR HVY RAIN OVERNIGHT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL APPROACH PR OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS SEEN
NICELY IN THE LATEST WV IMAGERY CROSSING EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND MOVING
EAST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...CONVECTION HAS  INCREASED WITH THE
LATEST IR SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN/AROUND PR. GIVEN THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ( CAPE 1000-2000 J/KG) AND RICH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PWAT 1.8" TO 2.2") ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS
LIKELY. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PR AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS LIFT INCREASES FROM THE
WEST. ANOTHER INGREDIENT FOR INCREASING CONVECTION IS THE EXPECTED WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND AN INCREASE IN THE 300/250MB
WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0530-0930Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
AND INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PR OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS. INITIALLY...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PR...BUT
AS LIFT INCREASES FROM THE WEST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PR.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1885 6737 1881 6442 1745 6443 1747 6748
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