Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 262011
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
VIZ000-PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/26/16 2011Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 2000Z JRM
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC
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EVENT...CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PR. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TAPPING A
MODEST INSTABILITY POOL AS LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS REGION. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF PR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEALTHY EXHAUST. MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BNDRYS CAN ALSO BE
SEEN IN VIS IMAGERY MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST. THE OUTFLOW
BNDRYS ARE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF TRAINING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND INVEST 99L FAR
TO THE WEST...THAT THIS CONFLUENT FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE COULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2000-0045Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLAND
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONCERN
FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE LINES ARE INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW HAS REMAINED STATIONARY ACROSS THE ISLAND LONGER THAN EXPECTED
CO-LOCATED WITH DEEP AND RICH MOISTURE.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST AND INLAND IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND AS
FAR EAST AT THE LOCAL EASTERN ISLANDS AND USVI. EVENTUALLY LATER THIS
EVENING...UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RELAX AND THE CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND...WITH A DECREASING THREAT FOR HVY
RAIN. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...VERY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL PROMOTE
RAINFALL RATES EASILY EXCEEDING 1-2" PER/HR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1900 6440 1736 6438 1743 6767 1894 6759
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