Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 192032
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/19/14 2031Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2015Z   LIDDICK
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LOCATION...MICHIGAN...
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ATTN WFOS...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...NCRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR SRN MI WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UP WITH A 40 KT JET MAX OVER CNTRL
LAKE MICHIGAN.  GOES SOUNDER/GPS DATA INDICATING 1.5"-1.65" PWS LOCATED
ACROSS SRN MI.  WIND FIELD ANALYSIS SHOWING 850 FLOW FEEDING INTO THE
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MI WITH FAIRLY WEAK PROPAGATION VECTORS.
GOES CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALGORITHM AND VIS IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK
CONVECTIVE CELLS FORMING CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS
WELL WITH MORE WEAK DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.  SFC ANALYSIS AND UA ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATING SFC AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND SERN WI AND WELL AS WITH THE CONVECTION
ACROSS MI.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2030-0030Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTION IS TAKING ON A MORE PARALLEL
ORIENTATION FOR THE MEAN FLOW INDICATING THAT IT COULD BEGIN TO HANG
UP A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE MERGING/ANCHORING CELLS GIVEN THE
WEAK PROPAGATION VECTORS.  THE CONVECTION FORMING WITH THE FRONT OVER SE
WI/LAKE SUPERIOR IS WEAK IN NATURE...HOWEVER IT COULD BE AN INDICATOR
OF THE RIGHT ENT REGION OF THE SMALL JET MAX BEING ABLE TO PRODUCT
ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
WORRIED THIS WILL CAUSE THE TAIL END OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS MI TO SLOW
UP A BIT MAKING THINGS WORSE FOR INTERIOR S CNTRL MI.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4413 8219 4159 8212 4158 8696 4397 8679
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