Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN HALF
OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...PERHAPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED -- BUT STRONGER -- STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE SEVERE POTENTIAL -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS -- WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A MUCH FASTER BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NRN U.S. AND SRN CANADA...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE RISK WILL REMAIN
FARTHER S...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WHERE A
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM...WITH THIS
TROUGH/DRYLINE FEATURE PROGGED TO FOCUS ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX AND
POSSIBLY SWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ELSEWHERE
OUTSIDE OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION AND VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE N TX/SWRN OK
VICINITY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST
OF ROCKIES/PLAINS AREA WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...AND THUS
SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGELY UNLIKELY.

AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX AND POSSIBLY
INTO SWRN OK...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ COMMENCES...DEVELOPMENT OF
500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE PROGGED OVER W TX.  EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
STORMS IS EXPECTED...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION
ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE TROUGH/DRYLINE.  THE STRONGEST
CELLS -- AND THUS THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE RISK -- IS FORECAST S OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONGER /CONTRIBUTING
TO 30 TO 40 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR/.  WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.  SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

..GOSS.. 04/19/2014




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