Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
ACUS02 KWNS 040629
SWODY2
SPC AC 040628

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2016

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COASTAL STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF
COASTAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES.
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

...SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR AND INDICATE THE SOUTHERN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AS OF EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EJECT THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN PERIOD OVER THE
WESTERN GULF...AND THE CYCLONE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...
UNDERGOING MODEST DEEPENING IN THE PROCESS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THE MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP INLAND. THIS WILL BE DUE IN PART TO NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES FROM A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ONGOING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR WILL MOVE INLAND LATER MONDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEVELOPS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE
DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
PROMOTING INLAND ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE
THREAT EXPANDING FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND CHARACTER
OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL FOSTER A RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THREAT DEPENDS LARGELY ON DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MITIGATED BY
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN.

..DIAL.. 12/04/2016

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.