Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
ACUS02 KWNS 261659
SWODY2
SPC AC 261658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.

...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY...

NEUTRAL-WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL BE NOTED ALONG THE TX COAST INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  AS A
RESULT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AIDED IN PART BY WEAK DIABATIC HEATING.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN
AR...SWWD INTO SCNTRL TX BY 27/18Z ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST OF THE
SABINE RIVER DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  FORECAST LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL DESPITE THE WEAK DIABATIC HEATING
AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ACROSS
THE GRADUALLY MOISTENING WARM SECTOR.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...WEAK BUOYANCY AND AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED 5
PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WHERE MARITIME TROPICAL MOISTURE MANAGES TO ADVANCE
INLAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

..DARROW.. 12/26/2014



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.