Tropical Cyclone Discussion
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WTPA41 PHFO 300837
TCDCP1

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN OF KILO HAS REMAINED VERY STRONG OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES WERE 6.0/115KT FROM
JTWC AND SAB AND 6.5/127KT FROM PHFO. I HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 120 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

KILO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION REMAINS 290/8 KT. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SHOW KILO
MAINTAINING THE SAME FORWARD SPEED AND MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES WEAK. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS AND CAUSING IT TO TAKE A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THE MOST RECENT GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE
WEAKER THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEAR 29C. THE 0600 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 KT FROM THE SOUTH. RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME DECREASE IN THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS WEST
OF THE HURRICANE. THAT SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY MAY HAVE PEAKED FOR
THE TIME BEING...BUT ONLY VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 18.6N 176.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 19.3N 177.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 20.6N 178.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 22.3N 179.7W  115 KT 135 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 23.9N 179.7E  115 KT 135 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 25.0N 178.5E  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 25.5N 177.0E  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 25.5N 175.0E  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON






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