Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240236
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0236 UTC Thu Aug 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth is centered near 25.4N 135.6W at
2100 UTC, moving NNW at 09 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is lingering
within 120 nm of the western semicircle. Gale-force winds are
forecast during the next 24 hours within 45 nm to the NW of the
low center as it moves NNW. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis along 98W-98W from 07N to 15N.
Scattered moderate convection are from 07N to 13N between 96W
and 101W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N100W to 11N120W to a
1011 mb low near 10N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will develop across the Gulf of California
tonight. This feature will stay in the area through the end of
the week with a weak surface low developing at times along the
trough mainly north of 29N. Fresh winds will pulse off the coast
of Baja California Sur from 24N to 27N during this time frame.
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between this trough and surface
ridging W of the area will allow moderate NW winds off Baja
California through Friday evening, then decreasing to a gentle
breeze through Monday night. Seas will remain between 2 and 4 ft
during this period. Increasing southwesterly winds to the south
of the area may bring 6 to 9 ft swell to the offshore waters
south of 15N Saturday through Tuesday. Fresh to strong SW winds
will accompany the swell starting Sunday evening through Tuesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough
through the weekend while moderate to fresh SW winds are
expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross
equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area
beginning on Friday, persisting through the weekend and early
next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the high pressure northwest of the
area and the remnants of Kenneth is producing fresh northwest
winds and a broad area of 8 to 10 ft seas N of 21N and W of
133W. These winds and seas will shift north to northwest with
what is left of Kenneth through Saturday. Moderate to locally
fresh NE flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and
W of 130W, and moderate NW flow east of 130W. Moderate to fresh
southerly flow is forecast south of the monsoon trough through
Friday. By Saturday, models are forecasting a slight intensification
of the southerly flow south of the monsoon trough east of 130W.
This should build seas to 7 to 9 ft from about 05N to 15N, east
of 130W through early next week.

$$

ERA




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