Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292111
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2030 UTC Mon Aug 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Lester is already a major hurricane and continues to intensify.
At 29/2100 UTC, it is centered about 1194 NM W of the southern
tip of Baja California near 18.0N 130.5W moving W or 270 degrees
at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Lester is now a
strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. A slow but steady weakening trend is expected to begin by
Tuesday. Lester is forecast to cross 140W and move into the
central Pacific basin by Wednesday night while continuing on a
westward motion. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
within 90 NM of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N91W to 12N100W to
13N120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 07N to 17N between 95W and 104W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 14N between 104W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extending from 32N130W to 16N110W dominates the waters
off Baja California. The ridge is producing moderate to locally
fresh northerly winds and seas generally under 6 ft. Little change
in this weather pattern is expected through the end of the week.
Marine guidance suggests seas will build close to 8 ft in NW swell
across the western part of zone PMZ011 on Tuesday night and
Wednesday, then subside. Surface troughing over the Baja
peninsula will maintain a light and variable wind regime in the
Gulf of California through the end of the week with seas generally
2 ft or less. Farther south, winds will be mainly gentle to
moderate and WNW with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft. A light and
variable wind pattern is expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough
with mainly light to gentle winds N of it through Friday. Long
period cross equatorial SW swell will continue to dominate the
area with seas ranging between 4 and 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge covers most of the northern waters,
extending from 1025 mb high pressure near 33N130W. The
tailendofa stationary front crosses the NW part of the forecast
area from 30N138W to beyond 28N140W. Ascat satellite imagery
continues depicting the wind shift associated with this front.
Scattered low-topped showers are occurring in the vicinity of
this feature. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Lester
will produce a band of fresh to occasionally strong winds from
20N to 25N between 125W and 135W, with combined seas ranging
from 9 to 12 feet.

SW swell crossing the equator will produce and area of seas S of
Mexico between 8 and 10 ft generally from 06N to 13N between 95W
and 120W during the next couple of days.

$$
Formosa



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