Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201511
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1427 UTC Sat Jan 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N86W to 07N98W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N98W to 09N122W then resumes from 08N131W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is noted within 30 nm N of ITCZ between 100W and
102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 60 nm N of ITCZ between 110W and 114W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 12N between 114W
and 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds continue to diminish across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds will continue the next 24
hours, before diminishing to 20 kt or less Sunday. Looking
ahead, strong to near gale winds are expected again beginning
Monday night and prevailing through Wednesday.

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds across mainly the
central and southern portions of the Gulf Sunday evening through
Monday. These winds will then slowly diminish Monday night
through Wednesday.

Large NW swell continues to propagate SE across the waters west
of the Baja Peninsula, with seas of 8-13 ft prevailing. This
large swell is producing high surf along coasts and outer reefs
of Baja California and mainland Mexico. While seas will slowly
subside the next couple of days, they are still expected to
remain above 8 ft over this area through the middle of next
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh each night over the Gulf of
Papagayo. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to gentle offshore flow will
prevail. Gentle southerly winds will prevail S of 09N for the
next few days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1031 mb is centered just north of the area near
34N137W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting
strong fresh to near gale force winds north of 10N and west of
130W as well as north of 25N between 120W and 130W. Large NW
swell continues to propagate across the forecast waters, with
seas 12 ft or greater prevailing over much of the forecast
waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Seas 8 ft or greater cover
nearly all the the open waters N of 05N. Fresh to strong trades
will prevail north of the ITCZ to around 20N for the next several
days, supporting combined seas of 10 to 13 ft from the ITCZ to
25N W of 115W through early next week. A surface trough embedded
in the vicinity of the ITCZ along 130W is helping to generate
convection across the area mainly east of the trough axis. This
convection is discussed in the ITCZ section.

$$
AL



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