Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO 105W/106W N OF 12N INTO
THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS AND
EXTENDED N TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUADALAJARA AND LAS ISLAS
TRES MARIAS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 108W MAY
AID IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 116W/117W AT 1800 UTC HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. LONG PERIOD
SATELLITE LOOPS AND TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT A GOOD PORTION
OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
EXTENDING FROM 120W NE TO THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS ALONG
104W/105W. THIS WAVE HAS THUS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 0000 UTC
SURFACE MAP.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N75W TO 07.5N80W TO 16N104W TO
10N123W TO 10N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND
99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 18N TO 21.5N E OF 110W TO
MEXICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1013 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR
31N140W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS VERY
BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N AND
NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 120W TO 104W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND
S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING



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