Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031600
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 03/1500 UTC...HURRICANE BLANCA IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 104.7W.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED INCREASED TO 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W
AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO
17N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF BLANCA IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...THEN BLANCA SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE TO THE N-NW. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA WILL REACH
THE SW COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA STARTING
THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO FRI. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AT 03/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ANDRES CENTER IS NEAR 19.6N
125.3W AND MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160
NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. ANDRES IS MOVING ACROSS INCREASING
COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS AND IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR ANDRES TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY
FRI. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TODAY
BEFORE STALLING AND TAKING A TURN TO THE E-SE THU. SWELLS
GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER
TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS TO THE N OF 07N ALONG 88W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AROUND 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 07N BETWEEN 86W
AND 91W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE BROADER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA LATER IN THE
WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 10N131W TO 09N137W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N138W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 25N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS OVER 8 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL HAVE MERGED WITH
THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES.

LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS AFFECTING THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTHWARD. THIS SWELL IS
MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM ANDRES AND BLANCA ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING TO THE SW
ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA IS SUPPORTING A PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG
N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD.

$$
NR/AL


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