Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251850
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
150 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow Monday afternoon, with unseasonably cold
  temperatures.

- Hard freeze expected Tuesday morning, with air temperatures in
  the teens and 20s. Wind chills for the Tuesday morning commute
  will approach zero.

- Dry with a rapid warming trend, for the remainder of this
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A strong midlevel cyclone was deepening over western Kansas. This
process will continue through the afternoon, with the cyclone
deepening to near 536 dm as it pivots toward Salina by 7 pm. This
process will allow light to moderate snow, restricted to the
southwest zones at midday, to expand across SW KS. All short
range models show this evolution, with a new deformation zone
of snowfall pivoting over SW KS through 7 pm. Soil temperatures
are well above freezing, in the 40s, but intense cold advection
and strong north winds will continue as the wet snow falls
through evening. As such, minor accumulations of 1-2 inches are
expected through sunset, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces.
Blowing snow will reduce visibility to 1/4 mile at times,
especially on open rural highways. Will be leaving the inherited
winter weather advisory as is, expiring at 10 pm CDT.

Unseasonably cold air will continue to pour into SW KS tonight
through Tuesday morning, on elevated northwest winds. Clouds are
expected to hold through midnight, with a gradual clearing through
sunrise. Both the clouds and the winds will work against
radiational cooling, but brute cold advection will force air
temperatures down into the teens for many locations Tuesday
morning. Northwest winds will continue to gust 25-30 mph through
the Tuesday morning commute, resulting in wind chill indices
approaching zero.

Models show little lower tropospheric warming Tuesday, with
850 mb temperatures only recovering to either side of 0C.
Still, with the return of sunshine, and northwest winds steadily
diminishing, Tuesday promises to be a much more pleasant day.
Any snow accumulations Monday will melt rapidly in the March
sun, but with the melting, and north winds importing
refrigerated air off the snowpack to the north, followed the
colder 12z MAV guidance. Many locations will struggle to out of
the 30s, with 40s retricted to near the Oklahoma border.

Weak surface high pressure is forecast to strengthen some over
Kansas Tuesday night, but models also show clouds increasing
toward sunrise as the next weak shortwave approaches. Another
freeze will occur, ranging from teens northeast to 20s south,
but the magnitude of the radiational cooling and the freeze will
be modulated by cloud cover at sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

One more weak shortwave will pass through on Wednesday, serving
to keep cloud cover considerable, and acting to hold afternoon
temperatures below normal. Expect afternoon temperatures in the
lower 50s, which is about 10 degrees below par for late March.
There may be a sprinkle or flurry favoring the southern zones,
near the Oklahoma border, with this passing wave, but anything
measurable is expected to remain south of SW KS. 12z GEFS
probability of even achieving just 0.01 inch of QPF is < 30%.

Broad ridging builds in aggressively Thursday, followed by near
zonal flow Friday, accompanied by an impressive warming trend.
Expect 60s to be common Thursday afternoon, with many locales
achieving 80 Friday afternoon. Modest lee troughing reforms over
eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon, offering a traditional
Kansas windy day, with south winds averaging 20-30 mph. Friday
will be unseasonably warm, with NBM and 12z GEFS in agreement
that the favored Red Hills area southeast of DDC will most
likely reach 80. 12z GEFS probability of 2m T > 80 is near 60%
near the Oklahoma border.

Quiet warm and dry weather is expected over Easter weekend.
12z ECMWF/EPS ensembles are notably warmer than GFS, but
regardless, pleasant spring weather is anticipated for the
holiday weekend. 12z EPS 850 mb temperature anomalies are very
warm Saturday through Monday, with 850 mb tempertures near 20C
near the Oklahoma border each day. The next trough is timed in
the long range guidance for next Tuesday (2 April), with an
early look at 12z GEFS showing precipitation favoring the
northern zones.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Radar at 15z indicated widespread light snow in progress,
generally along and west of a GCK-LBL line. Surface observations
indicated intense north winds gusting to near 40 kts at 15z,
with visibility reduced to as low as 1/2sm where snow is
falling. Light snow will expand north and east, impacting all
airports this afternoon, with several hours of flight categories
degraded to IFR or lower. North winds will remain strong through
the afternoon as the snow falls, reducing visibility, but gust
magnitudes are expected to decrease to 30-32 kts by 00z Tue.
Snow will end quickly this evening, with snow ending at HYS
during the 03-06z Tue time frame. Sky will clear rapidly to
VFR/SKC from west to east tonight through 12z Tue, with elevated
NW winds gusting 20-25 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this
evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner


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