360
FXUS63 KDDC 181900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight storms in northwest and north central Kansas could
  have some brief gusty winds.

- A more organized severe weather event is on tap for Sunday
  with the primary threat being downburst winds 70 mph or
  greater with the potential to be destructive winds.

- Cooler temperatures for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

18Z observations and upper air analysis shows a cold front
located from central Kansas to around Liberal which is slowly
progressing to the south and east. Winds behind the front have
increased to 20-30 mph. A 1006 mb surface low is located in the
Texas panhandle in association with an upper level shortwave
while mid level winds are generally zonal.

Tonight the main feature of interest is a forecast MCS to
develop in northeast Colorado around sunset. Ahead of the storm
complex a 700 mb shortwave and surface low will develop and the
present cold front will lift back to the north as a warm front
which should allow the return of more robust moisture as the
winds switch back to the southeast. Through the evening and
overnight hours BUFKIT soundings in northwest and northcentral
Kansas show the storm will be quite elevated and the main threat
would be downburst winds up to 60 mph and as a result there is a
marginal risk of severe weather. These storms will likely affect
areas along an north of a Syracuse to Hays line through sunrise
Sunday morning.

Sunday there should be a brief outflow boundary from the
overnight convection which will stabilize the atmosphere
through mid morning. Afterwards as the winds turn back to the
southeast we will have growing moisture and instability ahead of
a developing dryline along the Kansas-Colorado border. Mid level
temperatures will be quite warm at 10-11(C) however with
forecast highs reaching to the mid 90s around the dryline this
should be warm enough to erode any cap we have. A 700 mb
shortwave should move into the vicinity of the dryline around
20-21Z and thunderstorm initatiaon should quickly result around
the Kansas/Colorado border. If we do have any supercells they
will quickly evolve into a linear squall line within a couple
hours. With short term models forecasting 3,000 J/kg or more
CAPE these storms will have plenty of energy to work with as the
progress eastward. Main threat for severe weather on Sunday will
be straight line winds as the 12Z HRRR has hints of wind gusts
approaching 75-80 kts once the line gets into the most robust
moisture along and east of highway 183. Secondary threat with
any squall line could be some brief QLCS spin up tornadoes
embedded in the line. Hail threat will be the most with inital
storm development and then lessen as the storms become more
linear. The bulk of the line should be through by Sunday
evening.

Sunday evening as the main line of storms moves into central
Kansas HRRR models hint at a secondary line of storms developing
on an outflow/frontal boundary along K-96. If there is any
instability left after the intial line this could certainly be a
possiblity. Storms look to fester between K-96 and I-70 through
close to sunrise on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

No cold air advection is expected behind Sunday`s shortwave,
with another hot afternoon expected Monday. A weak wind
shift/cold frontal boundary will sag southward through the day,
and the hottest temperatures are expected adjacent to Oklahoma
ahead of the boundary Monday afternoon. The favored Red Hills
through Barber county continue with 00z GEFS highest probability
of exceeding 100 degrees, and highs in the upper 90s are
forecast for these zones. A new surface cyclone is forecast to
develop over southeast Colorado 7 pm Monday, and models show
strong instability in the afternoon with CAPE > 2000 J/kg.
Models forecast warm 700 mb temperatures in the 11-12C range,
and it is doubtful the expected weak wind shift line would offer
enough of a trigger to initiate convection through the cap. NBM
is dry daylight Monday and this forecast was accepted.

Model consensus places a strong closed 557 dm low over western
Wyoming 7 am Tuesday. This will strengthen midlevel SWly flow
over SW KS, and the associated surface low will track northeast
to near Hays sunrise Tuesday. Noticeably cooler and drier air
will flow into SW KS Tuesday behind the associated cold front on
elevated northwest winds. This synoptic evolution is expected to
dryslot SW KS, pushing moisture and instability out of the
region. The cooler air is forecast to be reinforced Wednesday,
with the cold front being shoved south well into West Texas.
NBM has come into agreement with the ensembles and 00z MEX with
Wednesday being the coolest day next week, with lows in the 40s
and afternoon temperatures reduced to the 70s. As such, high
confidence that Wednesday will be dry, but in late May, return
flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture is usually quick and easy.
Indeed, south winds and moisture advection return Thursday, with
00z ECMWF and several EPS ensemble members suggesting warm air
advection driven rainfall is possible Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds will be breezy this afternoon as a cold front slowly moves
through western Kansas with wind speeds around 10-20 kts and
gusts up to 30 kts. Tonight a band of showers and storms will
move out of eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas and could be
close to HYS and GCK airports between 07-10Z. During the day on
Sunday winds will increase ahead of a dryline out of the south
at 20-25 kts sustained and over 30 kt gusts as we approach
17-18Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro