Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 261131
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow ends by sunrise. Patchy blowing snow remains
  possible through midday with northwest winds gusting up to 45
  MPH. Winds gradually diminish through the afternoon.

- Chance for flurries Wednesday morning.

- Dry with near normal temperatures for the end of the week.

- There is a low chance for precipitation (mainly rain) late
  Saturday night, with a better chance for a rain/snow mix
  Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

As of 330am, the back edge of the snowfall stretches for near
Phillipsburg up to near Ord, and is making steady progress
eastward. Over the past hour, the heaviest bands are focusing
near and east of Highway 281, and this eastward trend should
continue. Nearly all model guidance has the entire area dry by
7am.

As snow moves out, visibility at automated sites has been
improving rather quickly. Broken Bow, Lexington, and Norton all
are at 6-7 mile visibility, which indicates some minor/patchy
blowing snow, but nothing significant enough to warrant
extension of the Blizzard Warning or Winter Weather Advisory.
These products are set to expire at 7am.

Winds will decrease through the day today as the surface
pressure gradient weakens substantially. Winds will go
light/variable by this evening, allowing some areas to dip into
the single digits tonight into Wednesday morning.

Many models indicate the potential for some light flurries
Wednesday morning as a broad upper trough crosses the central
CONUS. No snow accumulation is expected.

Surface winds return to the southwest on Wednesday as upper
level ridging pushes in from the west. Lingering clouds will
limit our warmup on Wednesday, and the snow cover will lead to a
wide range of afternoon temperatures. Some snow-covered areas
may only see the mid 30s, where mostly snow free areas in Kansas
reach the low 50s.

Thursday trends warmer across the entire area with continued
southwest surface winds. Highs are expected to be closer to our
climatological normals, but there could still be a wide range in
high temperatures (upper 40s to mid 60s from NW to SE).

A cold front moves through on Friday and turn winds back to the
northwest, but it will not bring much cold air with it. Highs on
Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the 50s and 60s for
most.

A weak shortwave may bring some light precipitation (mainly to
our north) late Saturday night, but most spots will probably
miss out. A slightly better chance for precipitation arrives
with a more robust shortwave Sunday night through Monday. Even
so, some deterministic model runs keep us dry. Global ensembles
show a 50-60% chance for 0.10" of liquid in our north, but only
a 10-20% chance in our south. This could fall as a mixture of
rain and snow, but wintry impacts are unlikely, with the global
ensemble blend showing only a 10-20% chance (at best) for 1" of
snowfall.


 &&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Snow gradually diminishes through tonight, but minor blowing
snow may continue past sunrise Tuesday before winds decrease
later in the morning.

Ceilings will overall continue to improve tonight, and clouds
should scatter out near or just after sunrise Tuesday.

Gusts 35-40kts continue tonight, but will gradually decrease
through Tuesday. By 18Z, gusts are expected to be in the 20-30kt
range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Snow has ended at both EAR and GRI, and skies are clearing from
the west. GRI should go VFR within the next couple hours. Minor/patchy
blowing may continue through the morning, but visibility should
remain above 6 miles.

Winds decrease through the afternoon and become light/variable
tonight.

the &&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ041-
     048-049-062>064-075>077-084>087.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060-061-072>074-082-083.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels


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