000
FXUS63 KGID 152109 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
404 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER
AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL NOT MAKE THIS TOO DETAILED TODAY
JUST IN CASE CONVECTION GETS GOING BY MID AFTERNOON.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH BROAD TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE GIVING THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA
A LITTLE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN THE SOUTHERN PART DUE TO
THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE FROM KS TO TX HAS
HELPED DEVELOP/SUSTAIN NON SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND WAS JUST PUSHING TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 1 PM CDT. ALSO ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE AN MCV OR NEDDY EDDY SWIRLING FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WOULD EXPECT ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS TO BE TO OUR EAST. DIFFICULT TO
PLACE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIFFUSE
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT PASSED
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. BY 17Z THE BOUNDARY APPEARED
TO BE LYING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.
BEST SURFACE MOISTURE POOLING IN THIS AREA WITH UPPER 60S FOR
DEWPOINTS...AS COMPARED TO THE 50S NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. TO GO
ALONG WITH THIS...ML CAPES THE HIGHEST HERE AT 17Z WITH VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 50 KT ALONG NEB/SDAK BORDER...30
KT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND LESS THAN THAT IN OUR
SOUTH.

FIRST QUESTION THEN IS WILL THUNDERSTORMS POP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TO WHAT EXTENT. THE 4KM WRF DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SAGS IT SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. IT
ALSO DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THEN
SLIDES IT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KS OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO ALSO
SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR TODAY. QUESTION HERE IS WILL
THE TRACK TAKE IT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR KS COUNTIES. WILL
MOST LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY
INTO THE EVENING WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS KS. SO
FAR SEVERE CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT LOOK THAT PROMISING
DUE TO THE LACK OF MID LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR. COULD SEE
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IF MCS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES.

THE SITUATION IS NOT MUCH CLEARER FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCATIONS OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
COULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY DO TODAY. LATEST DAY 2
OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THEY MENTION THAT
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A LINEAR SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT ALTHOUGH EARLY ON WE COULD SEE
DISCRETE CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. WILL PROBABLY HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH
FOR SUNDAY...CLOSER TO EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
SUGGESTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE
NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PERIODIC MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER OUR
AREA WITHIN THE MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW...THUS PRESENTING PERIODS OF
INCREASED OMEGA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS ONE
SUCH TIME PERIOD WITH QPF FIELDS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC
...SREF-MEAN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM...ALL SUGGESTING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED OVER OUR AREA.
MAINTAINED THE ~50% POPS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...POP-RELATED DETAILS BECOME MURKY AT BEST...WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUGGESTING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL
MOVE OVER SOME PORTION OF OUR CWA AT SOME POINT IN TIME. RESULTANT
QPF FIELDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS A RESULT...THUS MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AN EXACT LOCATION TO PLACE POPS. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
NAM...EC...AND SREF-MEAN OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEING
REALIZED SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST...PER THE
NAM...EC...AND EVEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS DESPITE ITS DRY QPF OUTPUT
ON BOTH DAYS...SUGGEST STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS TO AUTO-CONVECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
OUR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. GIVEN THE MODEST CONSENSUS FROM MODEL
QPF FIELDS...AS WELL AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...WENT AHEAD
WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WEST/SOUTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD OF
OUR CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO MORE OF
A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WITH MULTIPLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
MOVING OVER THE REGION. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20-50%
POPS FOR VARIOUS POINTS ACROSS OUR CWA DURING VARIOUS TIME
PERIODS. TIMING AND POSITION DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO ANY OF THE
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY NOT
BECOME ANY MORE CLEAR FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AND AS A RESULT...THE
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESSFULLY IMPROVING THE FORECAST AS PROVIDED BY
ALLBLEND IS LOW. GIVEN THIS LOW PROBABILITY...OPTED TO LEAVE THE
ALLBLEND POPS UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...IN PARTICULAR
THE NAM...SUGGEST ASCENDING PARCELS ROOTED TO BETWEEN 825MB AND
750MB WILL HAVE ~1500J/KG TO WORK WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THIS POTENTIAL ENERGY...DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~30KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH WITH RESPECT TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE
HWO FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
COULD BE OBSERVED SHOULD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BE REALIZED ACROSS
OUR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING
HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC
ALL SUGGESTING DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
2000-3000J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
~30KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
OUTLOOK THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. MUCH LIKE THE OVERALL POP
FORECAST...DETAILS REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER TIMING AND POSITION
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT LIKELY BECOME ANY MORE CLEAR FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE TIME BEING.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD PRESENT SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE GENERALLY IN THE 80S CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND TO
FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS CREEPING INTO THE
70S FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAF THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WIND DIRECTION AND SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE TAF. TERMINAL AREA STILL LYING NORTH OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH RESULTING EASTERLY WINDS. THESE COULD SWITCH
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON IF BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH AS PROGGED. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY ONGOING AND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE JUST A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE NEAR
PEAK HEATING. WILL GO WITH VICINITY WORDING DUE TO EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
FOG A POSSIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...EWALD