National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGLD 240835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE
LARGER SCALE WE HAVE A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEPARTING THE PLAINS AND
MOVING EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY ARE LIMITING HIGH
TEMPS...THOUGH AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LIME FROM WRAY COLORADO TO GOVE
KANSAS ARE EXPERIENCING SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY PUSH THEM UP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT. AM MORE CONFIDENT IN FOG THIS EVENING THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS
COUNTIES. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO. FOG AND CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH ALONG THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. IN
THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEAK TROUGH TO
FORM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A
CAP IN PLACE...BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
KANSAS/NEBRASKA COUNTIES. STORMS WILL BEGIN AROUND 21Z AND LAST INTO
THE EVENING...WITH STORM MOTIONS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 20-25
MPH. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG AND GREATER WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY TO PARCELS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS LOOK ESPECIALLY ATTRACTIVE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR FROM 0-3KM AGL OF AROUND 30 KTS
ALONE. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS ALSO DECENT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A SIZABLE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG WINDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. LCL HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 1KM...SO WHILE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT FRI MAY 24
2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO AMPLITUDE OF UPPER FLOW
PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE UPPER
RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR EAST AND ALSO THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PLACE OUR AREA IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK EMBEDDED
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES THAT COULD POTENTIALLY ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. BY TUESDAY THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
FURTHER AND ECMWF CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. GFS MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE AND SHIFTS IT EASTWARD WITH
NOTICEABLE HEIGHT FALLS OVER OUR AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED THE DIRECTION
OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND OPENS UP THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW RATHER THAN KEEP IT CLOSED AND SLOWLY MOVING IT EAST AS THE
12Z ECMWF INDICATED. STILL THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH. THIS LEADS
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. GFS WOULD FAVOR A
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION / ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EVENT
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A SIMILAR
SITUATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY / WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND CIGS WILL BE
LOWERING AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE...WHICH WILL FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ON FRIDAY...CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
WITH PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AT EITHER LOCATION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...024