Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 011033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.