Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 220849
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TONIGHT...

LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST IS GIVING A NICE WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THIS COMBINATION IS PROVIDING THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
SSE FLOW...LIFTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE M70S UP TO THE L80S WITH
MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. GOING INTO TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...CWA WILL SEE CONTINUING OF SYNOPTIC SETUP INITIALLY.
EXPECTING AREA TO SEE FAIRLY DECENT NIGHT WITH GRADIENT REMAINING
INITIALLY BUT SLACKENING SOME BY MIDNIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...MODELS DO
BRING TROUGH SLOWLY OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING
EDGE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WITH SOME LIGHT -RW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
BY 12Z WED. QPF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. BY 08Z WED...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE CLOUDS OVERRUN AREA. BASED ON LATEST DEWPTS FROM OBS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE...LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE U40S
WEST TO THE M50S EAST. THESE NUMBERS WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT/PUSH OF
CLOUD COVER PUSHING INTO AREA TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING HRS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COMBO WILL BE SLOWED BY BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI. WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER W/ -RW. BEST CHANCES FOR -TRW ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES...DUE TO MORNING TIMING OVER
WESTERN CWA. LIGHT/MODERATE -RW COULD BRING A RANGE OF 0.02-0.20"
QPF POTENTIAL. EARLY HIGHS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN ZONES...DUE TO WIND
SHIFT WITH SURFACE FROPA... SO BRING THESE LOCALES MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 08Z WHEN MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE...CONTINUING UNTIL 13Z-14Z.

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER COLORADO WILL WORK EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING TROUGH OVER
CO-WY WILL MOVE CLOSER TO TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AT KGLD AND 15Z AT
KMCK. CEILINGS VCNTY PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NW-N BY 18Z WED...GRADUALLY VEERING TO NE-E BY
00Z THU.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DLF



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