Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 291841
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1241 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD STARTING AT HIGHWAY 83
AND INCREASED IN DENSITY TO THE WEST.  RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER YUMA COUNTY.

HIRES NMM...ARW...AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
21Z...AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT TRANSLATE TO BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG IN THE PROFILE...WITH
CAPE VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.  WITH 0-6 SHEAR VALUES ON THE
FRINGE OF 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.  KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS OUTPUT DUE TO BLANKETING
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MID MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION...THOUGH ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE. SO...THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DECENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL COUNT ON THE MID LAYER SUBSIDENCE...LACK OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND GFS SOLUTION TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 25-30 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE...SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 80S.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
500 MB TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND ADVECTS
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY. EVEN THE
GFS HINTS AT A DRY LINE FORMING OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON. CAPES EAST OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER 2000 J/KG. WITH
LESS SUBSIDENCE...MENTIONED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 TUESDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE DECENT
ASCENT...SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS. MID LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT CAPES AGAIN WILL BE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD FOR THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT. LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUD
DECK BREAKING AT BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...MK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.