Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 291952
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016
Forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and when next
chance of severe weather. Satellite showing complicated and
amplified/blocky pattern from the Pacific into the western Atlantic.
At jet level...Nam was doing a little better than the rest of the
output. At mid levels...the models were close with the Canadian/Gfs
and Nam doing a little better. Sref was doing the best on the
surface wind and pressure field. The Gfs/Nam/Ecmwf were doing the
best on the low level thermal field.
Models are doing a little better today. However, models continue
to have problems with the surface winds, low level thermal fields,
and convective feedback issues. Also the hires/convective allowing
output continues to have differences and is overdoing
precipitation. Overall, confidence is below normal on solutions.
Today/tonight...A weak right rear quadrant affects the southern half
of the area through the morning. Also weak shortwave trough moving
through. Some weak convection going on at this time and should
primarily be confined to the southern and eastern areas this
Again multiple shortwave troughs, some suffering from convective
feedback, and how they interact making this period uncertain. One
shortwave trough leaves the eastern portion of the area late this
morning/early this afternoon as another shortwave approaches from
the south and west. Convection looks to move through the area and
mainly affect western areas before ending.
Looks to be less cloud cover than anticipated yesterday so raised
maxes. For tonight models showing an increase, of varying degrees,
in low level moisture during the night. May end up being just
stratus but did add patchy fog for later tonight.
Monday/Monday night...look to have some fog and stratus in the
morning and then looks to clear out by late morning. Some increase
in lift in the morning with the strongest shortwave to move through
expected in the afternoon and nighttime hours. Will have slight
chance pops in the morning increasing to chance in the afternoon
with high chance to likely pops during the night. Spc expanded/moved
a slight risk into the area for this period. Considering the veering
wind profile and decent lapse rates in the place, the slight looks
reasonable and will continue the mention of severe in the grids.
Again guidance a little warmer and considering that there looks to
be less clouds, raised maxes a little again.
Tuesday/Tuesday night...shortwave that moved through the period
before will force a cold front through the area by the beginning of
the period. Upslope flow increases behind the front. Despite the
mean trough still our west and northwest, the models do depict a lot
of mid level lift moving through and seems unorganized and not very
definite. However, right rear quadrant begins affecting the northern
portion of the area late in the afternoon. This sags south and
strengthens through the night.
However, models not very excited about producing much precipitation
despite the jet models. The appear to not have a lot of moisture,
but considering the upslope and jet lift thought model pops and qpf
would be area. At this time kept slight chance to low chance pops
with the highest pops in the southern portion. Again look to be
warmer and carry less cloud cover. Again at this time only minor
adjustments to the maxes.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016
Thunderstorm activity Monday evening, some severe, will slowly wind
down Monday night as the longwave of low pressure pulls slightly
eastward overnight. The theta-e boundary that provided a focus for
thunderstorm development on Monday afternoon/evening will move off
to the east as we head into Tuesday. Another round of thunderstorm
activity will be possible on Tuesday along and ahead of a cold
front. At this time, strong thunderstorms are possible but severe
thunderstorm development will be limited. PoPs remain in the
forecast through Wednesday morning as this front will likely slow
down during the overnight hours and perhaps stall out just to the
east of the CWA. This system will move to the east late Wednesday
and into Thursday with high pressure building in to the west of the
CWA. A dry and warm pattern will persist from late Wednesday into
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016
widely scattered thunderstorms will develop this evening and
persist into tonight due to a weak shortwave trough aloft and
instability due to surface heating. Confidence is rather low that
one of these storms will directly impact either KGLD or KMCK so
will not mention in the TAFs at this time.
Overnight...there is a low probability of low clouds and fog with
low level moisture advecting northward which could briefly reduce
flight categories at either terminal. Once again, confidence is
rather low so will leave out of the TAFs for now.