Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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538
FXUS63 KGLD 122057
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
157 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 AM MST...SKIES ARE PRIMARILY OVERCAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY AKRON COLORADO TO
BURLINGTON TO LEOTI KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IN THE 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND MOST OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS...THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS EAST
COLORADO AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS ARE EAST TO
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IS SURGING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW IS
SITUATED OVERHEAD.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLIDING WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE FRONT RETREATS EAST TOMORROW WITH WARMER WEATHER LIKELY WEST OF
THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO TODAY`S OBSERVED CONDITIONS. THIS OCCURS AS
THE ARCTIC BEGINS ITS TREK EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

OF LARGER CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ICY
SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES PROVIDED
BY THIS FRONT...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAVE
BEEN NOTED. THIS IS WHY WE HAVE OBSERVED STRATUS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES COOL THIS EVENING AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS...ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME DENSE
FREEZING FOG...PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40 AND
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. LOW VISIBILITIES AND ICY SPOTS ARE A
CONCERN WITH THESE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
OVERALL...ANY IMPACTS (ICY ROADS/LOWERED VISIBILITY) SHOULD BE
CONFINED GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40.

THE FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SOON AS SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES COOL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO
AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. A SLOW PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE FOG...ESPECIALLY
THE DENSE FOG...SHOULD NOT SLIDE FURTHER EAST AS DRY AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST WILL LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE FOG ADVANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BROUGHT QUITE A BIT MORE
CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS. MOISTURE BELOW 700MB REMAINS RATHER DRY THUS NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LEAVING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
9C EAST TO 13C WEST WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS LOW TO MID 60S.
LATEST FORECAST SHOWING MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY THEN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANY CLOUDINESS EAST
OF THE AREA LEAVING US NEARLY IF NOT CLOUD FREE. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BUT
GIVEN NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY IS IN THE MID 40S STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH LOW TO MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO
MILD (ABOUT TWICE AS WARM AS NORMAL) WITH LOW TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ANY CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH A DRY FORECAST CONTINUING. LATEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20C WHICH ALONE
SUPPORT MID 60S TO AROUND 70. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
READINGS A BIT HIGHER BUT WITH THE CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD IT COULD
PUT A DAMPER ON FULL 850MB MIXING. LOW TEMPERATURES TWICE WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

WIDESPREAD POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TAF
PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS ALREADY SPREAD IN FROM NORTHEAST...INCLUDING
KMCK. STRATUS ADVANCES EAST THROUGH EVENING...LOWERING FURTHER
NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LOWEST VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER EAST COLORADO AND COUNTIES ALONG COLORADO BORDER...INCLUDING
KGLD. UNSURE HOW LOW VIS DROPS FURTHER EAST AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM EAST. EITHER WAY...ANTICIPATE MVFR VIS WITH IFR VIS LIKELY TO
THE WEST. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW LOW VISIBILITY DROPS ON WESTERN
EDGE OF FOG/STRATUS. FOG/STRATUS GRADUALLY ERODES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. KMCK LIKELY REMAINS BELOW VFR LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST NOON TOMORROW IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RRH



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