Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 131731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  A
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE FA.  THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14 OR 15Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS AND
ZONES FOR THESE.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN FA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW AS WELL WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT LOW CHANCES OF STORMS. CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.

THE GFS AND NAM HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FORCING UNTIL
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS VERY WEAK FORCING FOR MONDAY WITH
A LACK OF FORCING MONDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL KEEP POPS LOW.  THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING COME TOGETHER OVER
THE FA.  INSTABILITY DROPS OFF FOR THIS EVENT SO SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE OF WEATHER OTHER THAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER
INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER
80S.  MUCH COOLER READINGS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S TONIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL FUNNEL LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...RAINFALL AND ALREADY COOLER CANADIAN AIR...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN A BIT
LOWER.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BRING IN MORE DRY AIR ALOFT
ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND COULD BE SUSTAINABLE WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND THE RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BE THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL AFFECT THE AREA.  MODEL TIMING VARIES ON THE PASSAGE TO
EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PINNING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT EITHER
TERMINAL WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT BETTER
WITH THE FRONT SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS AND EXPECTED TIMING
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024



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