Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 212333
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS RESULTING IN
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MOISTURE IS SLOW TO RETURN HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 30S AND 40S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN
PLACE ALOFT. AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WEAK SBCAPE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE WEAK. AS A RESULT...NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE WEEK/WEEKEND IS POSSIBLE WITH AN ONCOMING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION BRINGS MUCH
LESS CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...DISCUSSION FOCUSES ON
THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

ACTIVITY BEGINNING MONDAY STEMS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEVADA FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
TRIED TO REFLECT THAT ONCE AGAIN IN THE POPS. LATE STAGES OF 48 HOUR
HI-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE WRF ARW AND WRF NMM SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT
RANGE AND PUSH EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
JET CRANKS UP AND INSTABILITY/MOISTURE INCREASE. DO NOT THINK THAT
THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WINDS AND MUCAPE GENERALLY PREDICTED IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS COULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT OF 15-20 KTS...TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 1.3-1.4 INCHES/2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
DO THINK MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER COULD MISS OUT ON THIS
EVENT. ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS
FOG. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER ANTICIPATED RAINFALL. WINDS MAY HOVER AROUND
10 KTS WHICH WOULD REDUCE FOG CHANCES AND INSTEAD LEAD TO STRATUS.
STRATUS SEEMS LIKE A SURE BET...FOG ON THE OTHER HAND IS
QUESTIONABLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY EASES TO THE EAST TUESDAY...
POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY BUILDS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE HIGHER...CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...BUT WIND
SHEAR IS NOW FORECAST TO BE LESS...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS.
COULD STILL SEE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. ALSO...THE SUBSIDENT REGION
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE MAY HAMPER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH...POSSIBLY A CUTOFF LOW...
CREEPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS GIVEN BY THE CR-INIT ON
SUNDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONSTANT 850 MB TEMPS...SOUTH WINDS
AND NO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO A SOUTH DIRECTION...AND THEN BECOME IN
THE 15Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT KGLD. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF
PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR KGLD.

SINCE IT WILL BE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THERE ARE STILL
SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...CHOSE TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT. WILL ADDRESS THIS ISSUE IN THE 06Z TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER


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