Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 142305
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KS WITH N-NW GRADIENT OVER
KS/NE SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS OVER OUR CWA. SNOW PACK HAS RETREATED
OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...WHILE VIS SATELLITE INDICATES IT HOLDING ON
OVER PARTS OF NE COLORADO AND ALONG KS/NE STATE LINE WHERE AROUND
INCHES OF SNOW FELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH H3 JET STEAM IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING AND HAS LED TO
CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AS NOSE OF JET
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG WITH
THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE MID LAYER FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA...OTHERWISE WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CU OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS A
BETTER SHOWER WE COULD SEE A FLURRY INSTEAD OF SPRINKLE
THROUGH...BUT I DIDN`T SEE A REASON TO GET THAT CUTE CONSIDERING
CONFIDENCE IS ALREADY LOW ON PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR NE
CWA.

ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
W-SW WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...CONTINUE MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOW PACK COULD STILL IMPACT LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH...HOWEVER WITH
SW WINDS COMING FROM SNOW FREE LOCATIONS WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK
MELTING OF SNOW. MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE WEST
AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTING LOWER TD VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS A DECREASING TREND IN THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST...SO THERE MAY ONLY BE A
SMALL WINDOW FOR WIND/RH CROSSOVER. OF COURSE THERE IS ALSO THE
QUESTION OF WHETHER FUELS WILL BE CURED AFTER RECENT PRECIP
(ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK). WITH TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHERLY BRANCH TRIES TO COME INTO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERLY
BRANCH.

THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF
LAGS BEHIND NEARLY 24 HOURS. THIS IS PROVING TO BE TROUBLESOME
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN A
LATE FRIDAY TO LATE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH SOME KIND
OF BLENDED COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND
BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION.

BACKTRACKING TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY END UP STAYING MORE SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLDER AND WET BULB ZERO
TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER AS THEY WERE WITH THE LAST SYSTEM THAT
DEPOSITED SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 06KTS BETWEEN 01Z-02Z
WHILE BACKING TO THE WEST. AROUND 09Z SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS
EXPECTED AND WITH THE ADDITION OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY GUSTS OF 25-30KTS EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE BETWEEN 01Z-02Z TO 10KTS FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY 09Z BUT AN INCREASE
EXPECTED AFTER 16Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99






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