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000
FXUS63 KGLD 180958
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT DOES IT
GET. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AIR MASS HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS AND FORECAST FAILED FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDED UP BEING STRONGER OVER THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AT JET LEVEL APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR
APART AT MID LEVELS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH
THE OLDER ECMWF DOING THE WORST. THE HRRR WAS CATCHING THE INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS/CLUSTER WELL AND WILL USE INITIALLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
MOVING IN...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW USED THE
HRRR FOR THE POPS AND WINDS THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS CATCHING THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WELL.

MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME AM THINKING THEY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. SO WENT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.

QUESTIONS THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAKING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED CINH
IS THE LOWEST AND BREAKABLE IN THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
WILL TRANSITION THE CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE EAST WHILE KEEPING SOME
KIND OF CHANCE IN THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND
UPPER LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME JET LIFT REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN THE JET GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LINGERING LIFT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING.

THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THAT. SO WILL START WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE BORDER
AND HAVE A LOW CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION. THEN THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE THEY INCREASE THE WINDS. IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ALSO DEWPOINTS LOOK LIKE THEY BECOME LOW IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. MODELS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AM
SKEPTICAL OF TOO BIG OF AN INCREASE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THEN STALLING OR WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH. INITIALLY FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH VERY TOASTY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. BY THE END OF THE
DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DURING THE NIGHT THIS LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DESPITE SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL KEEP THIS WHOLE PERIOD DRY DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP DRY LAYER.

MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
SHIFT. THE NORTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S THERE. GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IT WILL GET NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN
MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION....(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL