Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 030832
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
WITH MOST PLACES SEEING HIGHS IN THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF I70 BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF I70 WEDNESDAY MORNING ENDING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY BUT LACKS MOISTURE
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT TUESDAY...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
AN INCREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT AS
MODEL SET UP AMPLIFIED H5/H7 RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST ON
FRIDAY...THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE WNW FLOW THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SETS THE TABLE FOR DOWNSLOPE
WINDS OFF THE ROCKIES. 850MB TEMPS THRU THIS TIMEFRAME WILL RANGE
FROM MAINLY +2C TO NEAR +5/6C FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE TO
+7C TO NEAR +10C FOR NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THESE NUMBERS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S FRI/SAT/SUN...THEN INCREASING TO THE 55F TO 65F RANGE FOR
MON/TUES. THIS WILL BRING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW/MID 20S TO
START...TO ALMOST L30S MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT OVER THE
WEEKEND THAT MAY HAMPER TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF RIDGE SHIFT. MODELS SHOWING
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS COULD HAMPER SUNSHINE IN MANY
LOCALES...POTENTIALLY KEEPING HIGHS DOWN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS ARE NOW REVERSING COURSE ON NOT ONLY FOG BUT STRATUS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A VERY HARD TIME THE LAST FEW DAYS IN
RESOLVING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VFR AT KGLD. PER SATELLITE AND LATEST
RAP/HRRR THAT MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL. SO UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT NEAR 14Z...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MVFR FOR ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS BEFORE BECOME VFR AGAIN. TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING NEAR
KGLD. SO AT THIS TIME JUST PUT VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR 12Z WHEN THEY
BRIEFLY BECOME VFR RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. JUST LIKE
KGLD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS AFTER THE
FRONT COMES THROUGH. AROUND 19Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THAT TIME...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS LIGHT SNOW...DEPICTED BY VCSH...MOVES INTO THE AREA.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER


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