Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 311719
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. THAT BEING SAID...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AS HINTED AT BY
THE HRRR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. SOME OF THE HIRES NAM
MEMBERS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO SO CARRIED SOME LOW POPS. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY DECENT SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LOOKING TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND TOPPING
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THAT IT
WILL ACTUALLY PLAY OUT THAT WAY SO WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN AVIATION FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. I COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER...HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO MODEL SUPPORT SO I LEFT MENTION OUT.
OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH BETTER CHANCES
IN EASTERN COLORADO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR


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