Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 200502
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
955 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING LIGHT WIND SHIFTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND THROUGH TOMORROW.  WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS
OUT OVER THE AREA...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
TO UPPER TEENS IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS 850 TEMPERATURE WARM SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.  DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS IN ON A SERIES OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST MOVES EAST WITH THE FIRST TROUGH IN THE SERIES MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING UP FROM
THE GULF TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN DEPICTING AN AREA OF FREEZING
FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS TO BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY AS THE MUCH DRYER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT AND THE
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH SHALLOWER AND LESS
LIKELY TO SATURATE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NAM HAS HUNG
ONTO A MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD AID
IN SATURATION...BUT HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF NOW SHOWING A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE COLD AIR MOVES OUT.

WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
TRANSITION TO A SURFACE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED
REACH INTO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY. PERIODIC INCREASES
IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THEY TRANSITION QUICKLY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING CIRRUS THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR SW
WINDS TONIGHT AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DLF



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