Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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182
FXUS63 KGLD 191122
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
522 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Today-tonight...models continue to advertise moisture in the 850-
500mb layer moving into the area from the southwest late this
morning while at the sfc southerly winds increase into the 10 to 20
mph range. By mid to late afternoon this area of moisture is
forecast to slide east as an upper level piece of energy moves east.
This will be enough to generate strong to severe thunderstorms
generally along and east of highway 25. Thunderstorms continue east
tonight and should be out of the area a few hours after midnight.
850mb temperatures warm about 9F to 13F across the area compared to
yesterday which is also a few degrees higher compared to past few
model runs. This would support mid 90s to around 101F and is close
to the GFS 2m temperatures. Am shooting for highs very these values.
Low temperatures look to range from the mid 50s to around 60 in far
eastern Colorado with low to mid 60s elsewhere.

Sunday-Sunday night...dry weather expected during the day under a
mostly clear to partly cloudy sky. 850mb temperatures a few degrees
cooler supporting low to mid 90s. Across the eastern 1/2 of the area
little change in 850mb temperatures noted and highs out there could
be very close to 100 degrees. Not terribly excited about
precipitation chances during the evening/nighttime hours as we`re
pretty stable and moisture lacking. Wont fight slight chance pops
for now and basically have them east of the CO/KS border. Low
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s in far eastern Colorado,
mid 60s to low 70s elsewhere.

Monday-Monday night...bulk of 850-500mb moisture that tries to move
in from the southwest in the morning remains across a sliver of our
far east through southern forecast area during the mid morning
through afternoon hours and its possible for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop. Otherwise a mostly clear to partly sunny
sky expected. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase during evening
and early morning hours as an upper level trough moves through
from the northwest. Currently have high temperatures in the mid
80s to low 90s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Tuesday-Wednesday: Cold front continues to push southward through
Kansas, while the western extent gets stalled with a north-south
orientation on the leeside of the Rockies, across the Colorado
Plains. Majority of the CWA should remain dry through the period
with temps at or below average.

Thursday-Friday: Model disagreement during this period leads to low
confidence in the forecast. Latest 0Z ECMWF and CMC runs show upper
level ridging and dry conditions persisting. GFS shows a wetter
solution with an upper level closed low coming across the area with
the aforementioned boundary still stationary helping to provide lift
for showers and storms over the CWA. 0Z GFS model soundings show a
near saturated atmospheric profile Friday morning in the Goodland
area. While the GFS is not as bullish as it was at this time last
night, forecast still reflects the GFS solution with lower rainfall
amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 522 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

For both KGLD and KMCK... VFR conditions expected through the
period. Gusty winds will develop across the area late this
morning. Some models were advertising thunderstorms impacting KMCK
directly near 23Z but chose to go with VCTS since confidence was
not high that thunderstorms would be the prevailing condition at
the terminal. Also, should be mentioned that one model is
depicting IFR and LIFR conditions near sunrise tomorrow in KMCK
due to FG. Chose to omit from the TAF entirely since that model
seemed to be an outlier at this time. Will need to be monitored
by subsequent shifts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...SME



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