Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 272016
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
216 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

SW flow remains in place across the plains with a mid-upper level
trough still in place across the desert southwest. Several weak
ripples (shortwave troughs) are rotating through the main flow aloft
with disorganized forcing leading to several pockets of
showers/thunderstorms early this afternoon.

Instability has already increased to 2000-3000 J/KG based on latest
RAP analysis, and thunderstorms have already developed near our
western CWA near this CAPE maxima aided by weak convergence along
surface trough. Shear is relatively weak and is expected to peak
around 30 KTS near 00z, so supercells are much less likely. There
is a region of veering nearing baroclinic zone in our south where
additional development is projected and there may be enough shear
for a more organized cell. Otherwise, the tendency will be towards
slower moving pulse type thunderstorms (large hail/strong winds).
PWATs should increase to 1-1.5" range late this afternoon, so
potential for locally heavy rain exists. Most guidance (other than
NAM) shows coverage peaking in the 00-06Z time frame and then moving
out of our CWA (or dissipating). NAM tries to linger
showers/thunderstorms through Sunday morning, and while there could
still be weak forcing in place decreasing considering the large
consensus towards dry conditions I favored that trend.

There is still poorly correlated precip signal in guidance Sunday
afternoon due to differences on timing of the next mid level vort
max to break out of the southwest and move northeast towards the
plains. NAM is certainly most aggressive, while GFS keeps conditions
dry through the afternoon. There is limited to no higher resolution
support. I kept slight chance/chance PoPs in place in the afternoon
(focused just east of surface trough) to remain consistent and
remain in line with ensembles. If thunderstorms develop we are
looking at similar threats as today with limited effective shear and
moderate instability. Seasonal highs (mid to upper 80s) are
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A weak H5 low will be situated over the four corners region on
Monday with elongated high pressure in place across the Southeastern
States. A theta-e boundary will divide moist and relatively unstable
air to the southeast and dry air to the northwest of the CWA.
Moisture will advect northward into the region along the axis of
instability and allow thunderstorms to develop along the boundary in
the presence of a weak shortwave. There is a bit of uncertainty
where the boundary will develop; however, the entire CWA will see at
least slgt chc to chc PoPs through the afternoon and evening with
higher rain chance to the southeast. For Tuesday, chc PoPs continue
along an area of weak upper divergence situated along the western
fringes of the high pressure area extending westward into the
central High Plains. Instability will be sufficient for thunderstorm
development through the afternoon and evening with the nearly
stationary theta-e boundary providing a focus for development. The
global guidance suggests that showers and thunderstorms will sustain
through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Another round of
thunderstorms is possible on Thursday as the boundary remains draped
across the region. Flow aloft will shift westerly as we head into
Thursday afternoon and help push the stationary surface boundary
eastward. Friday and Saturday should remain dry across the region;
however, there is much temporal disagreement between the global
models.

Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 80s
each day through the extended period as weak high pressure just
southeast of the region will influence the area. Lows will fall into
the upper 50s to lower 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Lingering stratus at KGLD is quickly dissipating and VFR should
prevail around valid TAF time (18Z). VFR is already in place at
KMCK and should prevail through the remaining TAF period. Winds
will remain out of the southeast or south less than 12 kt. Main
aviation concern after stratus dissipates is potential for
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Based on latest guidance
best chances will be closer to KGLD, with short range guidance
favoring 00z-04z period this evening. This activity should remain
south of KMCK.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR



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