Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1146 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 253 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

The broad high pressure area aloft extending from the desert
southwest to the central plains retrogrades over the 4-corners
region by late Thursday. Several short wave troughs ride up the
back side of the high and emerge east of the Rockies over the
central and northern high plains region during this time.

As the upper flow becomes move zonal across the Rockies and
eventually somewhat northwesterly, the lee surface lee trough
deepens across the area from the Nebraska panhandle to northeast
New Mexico today and moves eastward across the central high plains
and forecast area overnight. The low continues to move slowly
across the plains on Wednesday dragging a cold front south across
the high plains behind it. Cooler high pressure is expected to
move into the region in the wake of the front Thursday and
Thursday night. Todays highs in the 90s to lower 100s will cool
into the 80s by Thursday.

With the prefrontal trough across the area today along with plenty
of available moisture and instability associated with daytime
heating in addition to front approaching the area on Wednesday and
a couple of short wave troughs aloft moving across the region,
expect scattered thunderstorms to move off the Rockies today and
across the forecast area during the late afternoon and evening
hours. A few showers are expected to continue overnight with
another round of scattered showers on Wednesday and Wednesday
night mainly across the southern portions of the forecast area
along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the region.
Thursday may see a few showers across eastern Colorado. With a
marginal risk of severe weather expected across the forecast area
today, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats
with some of the stronger storms late this afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

During the extended period an upper level ridge amplifies over the
Rockies creating a strong northwesterly flow aloft over the region.
The 700mb level shows significant amount of moisture over the local
area. Additionally, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to
move within this upper level flow, resulting in a chance of showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening for the period.

Temperatures during the extended area anticipated to be near


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

For KGLD and KMCK...VFR conditions expected through the afternoon
and evening. With surface low and leeside trough in place,
southerly winds stay gusty through sunset. Expecting storms to
move in around 3-4Z for both terminals with pre-frontal trough.
Some storms may bring heavy rain and periodically lower
visibility. Low level wind shear also a concern at both terminals
overnight before winds relax before sunrise. Winds increase out
of the north after sunrise with some frontal stratus bringing MVFR




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