Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160849
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Benign weather through early next week.

- Unsettled weather pattern returns mid-week, mainly Wednesday
  into Thursday. Light precipitation (rain) possible. Hazardous
  weather presently not anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge /omega block/
anchored to the Pacific Coast.. and a cut-off low, trapped
within, over the Desert Southwest.. will persist.

Benign weather, characterized by dry conditions and near average
temperatures, will prevail through the weekend.. in association
with an increasingly subsident /confluent flow aloft/ synoptic
regime over the Central Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Dry conditions are anticipated through the middle of next week as
the Tri-State area sits between two area of low pressure aloft. The
next chances for precipitation are currently expected to be in the
latter half of the week.

Tranquil conditions continue on Monday and Tuesday as the area
remains between the two low pressure systems. The upper closed low
over Arizona will begin to nudge east-northeast over Southern Kansas
and the Southern Plains. On Wednesday there is some disagreement on
how quickly the low moves across New Mexico into the Panhandle
region. The GFS currently lags the low behind through Wednesday
night. As the low moves further over the Southern Plains late
Wednesday into Thursday, a Colorado low is expected to develop over
SE Colorado and SW Kansas. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will
advect over the Tri-State area helping increase our rain chances
over the Kansas counties along and east of Highway 83 overnight
Wednesday. Currently there is low confidence (less than 20%) for
rain overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning. After a break
in precipitation chances during the day on Thursday, we could see a
return of light rain over the northwest corner of the area Thursday
evening as the surface low moves northeast and the wrap around
moisture moves over the Tri-State area. Guidance suggests the
passage of a cold front Thursday night, bringing the opportunity for
more light rain and possibly light snow with PoPs up to 35% Friday
afternoon through the overnight hours.

Mild above-normal temperatures are expected to continue through much
of next week with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the
area on Monday. Overnight lows should be in the 30s Monday night.
Tuesday through Thursday are expected to warm up nicely with highs
in the 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 30s to around 40
degrees. Friday is forecast to be in the low to mid 60s for highs
with overnight lows in the 30s.&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 953 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
west-southwest 5-10kts through 16z Saturday, then shifting
northwest 10-20kts. By 19z, becoming northerly and eventually
light/variable by 03z Sunday.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
west-southwest around 5-10kts through 14z Saturday, then
northwest. By 16z, north 10-20kts becoming light/variable by
03z Sunday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JN


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