Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280246
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
846 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...THE AREA FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR. WE HAVE HAD A MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION FROM WPC ISSUED FOR OUR AREA AND CAN DEFINITELY SEE THE
POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO BE OUR
NORTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SOME RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY IN THE NEXT 1
TO 2 TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH.

SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT FOR ALL
OF THE AREA BUT GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO RAISED
POPS AND QPF IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING
THE BEST LIFT SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL LET DAY
SHIFT TAKE CARE OF THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

MESSY SITUATION WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH LARGE
UPPER LOW OVER NW COLORADO WHICH WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...SFC HEATING WILL GENERATE POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH TSRA DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WV SATELLITE
SHOWS THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AT THE MOMENT WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GENERATE A
SECOND AREA OF TSRA WHICH WILL REACH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
AGAIN THIS EVENING IN WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN EASTERN AREAS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
SO OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED. STORMS WILL END WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN
FAR EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY
AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO WILL BRING SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO DECLINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN NEAR
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RIGHT NOW PUTTING THE CONVECTION IN THE
RIGHT PLACE. THIS HAS TO DO MAINLY WITH MESOSCALE AFFECTS FROM
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO MODELS WANT TO PUSH FRONT BACK
TO THE WEST SOME AND THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS TO
OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...KMCK MAY HAVE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT IT
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

IF MESOSCALE INFLUENCES DO NOT BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS SOONER...THE
MAIN LIFT AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS FROM
AROUND 03Z TO NEAR 08Z. IF THE STRONGEST CELLS MOVE ACROSS
CONDITIONS COULD GO TO MVFR. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS...EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. KGLD MAY CLEAR OUT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH KMCK STAY MVFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT TO PUT IN ANYTHING WITH ANY KIND OF
CONFIDENCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



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