Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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784
FXUS63 KGLD 260457
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1057 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Main change was to delay the onset of the higher chances for
rainfall until Sunday afternoon. New model data coming in is less
favorable for a broad area of rainfall developing on Sunday. The
saturated air that develops a wrap around band of precipitation in
the afternoon is becoming narrower compared to the previous model
data. Looks like the south half of the forecast area will be more
favorable for precipitation, but the band of rainfall may only be
20 or so miles wide north to south.

Still expecting fog to develop tonight, likely dense fog. The fog
is just northeast of the forecast area, a bit sooner than was
expected earlier in the shift. The east half to third will have
the lowest visibilities. Visibilities around a half mile are
expected in the fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...sunny skies are
prevailing for just about all of the area as high pressure giving
the region a nice day to dry out from yesterday`s precipitation.
Some lingering cloud cover remains over far eastern zones...east of
Hill City. Where the cloud cover has been persistent...temps have
been affected to the tune of a 10 degree difference.
Currently...area temps are mainly ranging from the upper 40s thru
the 50s...with a light NNW wind. A few locales have hit the 60F
mark.

Going into tonight...a shift from the current wind regime to a more
ESE one will occur out ahead of approaching shortwave currently
moving into the west central Rockies. The shift to a more ESE
surface flow is expected to bring an increase in low level moisture
to the area from east to west. Model guidance does show this
increase in BL moisture...which will mean increasing clouds along
with the chance for fog. Based on latest model guidance have
expanded the areal coverage of fog after midnight tonight into
Sunday morning. Any fog will begin to erode east as cloud cover
increases from the west with shortwave approach. For overnight
lows...do expect the western portion of the CWA to be slightly
colder than the east due to lack of radiational cooling east from
increasing clouds. Entire area will be mcloudy/cloudy by 12z
Sunday...capping low temps.

For Sunday...based on the model track of approaching
shortwave...cloud cover expected to be most persistent south and
west as system track south of the CWA. Based on the cloud coverage
setup...expecting overalls highs to be slightly warmer than locales
south/west. Looking for a range in daytime highs from the mid 50s to
the lower 60s. For precipitation...models do differ on potential QPF
with this system...w/ bulk occurring south and east of the CWA as it
taps into deeper moisture away from the area. Nonetheless...have
continued the mention of light showers for the area...mixing with -
sw west in the early/mid morning hrs with no accum. Some instability
for the afternoon for the area...so have also continued mention of
isolated thunder.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Active pattern expected through next week with several large upper
low pressure systems bringing beneficial precipitation chances back to
the region.

Sunday night-Monday: The first upper level system will be exiting
the region by late Sunday night and there should be a lull in
precipitation chances Monday and Monday evening. Some models are
still showing a potential for fog development in our east, however
the signal is inconsistent and likely dependent on who quickly dry
air advects into our CWA in the BL on the back side of departing mid-
upper level system. I held off on adding mention due the lack of
consistency.

Monday night-Thursday night: A large closed low pressure system will
slowly migrate across the plains with deep moisture and large scale
forcing expected to continue over our CWA through these period.
Details such as periods or exact timing of most intense
precipitation associated with energy rotating around the upper low
may be less certain, but there is strong consistency between models
and I saw no reason to lower PoPs. Highest PoPs (categorical) are
Tuesday night through Wednesday when there is the strongest overlap
on these embedded waves. There may also be limited instability that
could result in a few embedded thunderstorms (particularly Tuesday
afternoon/evening), but confidence wasn`t high enough to blanket our
CWA with Iso-T when GFS/ECMWF are not showing more than a few
pockets of 100 J/KG MUCAPE. There may also be just enough cooling at
night to allow for a mix of rain/snow and light slushy accumulations
during the nighttime/morning periods. Predominant precip type should
be rain. Currently model consensus for QPF indicates possible precip
amounts across this prolonged period ranging from 1-2".

Friday-Saturday: There should be a lull in precip Friday as the
midweek upper low transitions eastward and GFS/ECMWF show ridging
building over our CWA Friday. The next system will begin to cross
the Central Rockies Friday night and should bring precip chances
back to our CWA. I trimmed back on PoPs Friday to account for the
lull, but otherwise kept changes to a minimum.

Regarding temperatures: Model blends/consensus are indicating near
seasonal normals for highs (upper 50s/lower 60s) and above normal
temperatures for lows (30s/lower 40s). Coolest signal (due to
widespread precip) would be Wednesday and a trended highs down a
touch toward the lower end of statistical guidance (still in the
lower to middle 50s), and this still be a touch too warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1053 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. KMCK has IFR
conditions a few hours earlier than expected. Am expecting these
conditions to prevail into the morning hours before beginning to
clear. KGLD is not as straight forward. Was not confident enough
to bring the fog in earlier based on how fast KMCK went down, but
did not want to ignore the model that was catching the fog/stratus
the best. Looks like KGLD will have the worst conditions when the
winds turn to the east. Both sites will gradually improve in the
morning.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JTL



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