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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170536
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1136 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING STORMS FIRING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG AND 30KTS SHEAR. EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND DUE TO HIGH BASED STORMS. STEERING WIND WILL
MOVE STORMS EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS SINCE STORMS ARE ALREADY IN
PROGRESS MOVING EAST. FOR MONDAY STORMS WILL FIRE AGAIN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AS THE NEXT IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. STEERING WIND WILL TAKE
THEM EAST SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE MID 80S MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S IN
THE NORTHWEST FA NEAR INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.

STRATUS WAS VERY MARGINAL AT BEST IN THE NORTHEAST FA EVEN THOUGH
NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH ABOVE 90 PERCENT WAS WIDESPREAD. TREND IS FOR
A SMALLER AREA OF HIGH RH TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MONDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
NAM/GFS SHOWING AREA OF STRONG THETA-E CONVERGENCE AFTER 03Z WITH
GUIDANCE FAVORING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
INCREASES. IN FACT...100 PERCENT OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW AT
LEAST 0.05 QPF OVER OUR ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z. I BUMPED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY...AND COULD SEE INCREASING THEM FURTHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THIS EVENT. I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
TRAINING/BACKWARDS PROPAGATION ALONG FRONT AS IT LIFTS DURING THE
EVENING WITH VERY WEAK 0-6KM FLOW (5-10KT) PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. H3
JET IS ALMOST PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT WITH H85 FLOW INBOUND.
SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR SATURATED THROUGH THE LAYER BY 06Z...WITH PWAT
VALUES OVER ONE INCH AND TALL SKINNY CAPE INDICATIVE OF EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING. TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH FRONTAL POSITION COMPLICATE THINGS...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT
THERE TO GO WITH A WATCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH THESE PERIODS...AND WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORT
MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MEANS LITTLE
WILL CHANGE WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING. I KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHEN BEST FORCING IS ADVERTISED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SW FLOW BUILDS DEVELOPS OVER
OUR CWA. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. MODELS INDICATE DRY LINE SETTING UP OVER
OUR CWA WITH 50/LOW 60S TD VALUES ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA FRI. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FEATURE. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FAR NORTH FRI/FRI NIGHT WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SHOW LIGHT QPF.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGES REGARDING OVERALL PATTERN WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT AND DRY LINE IN PLACE. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE BETTER
FORCING WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. I KEPT
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY. THIS ALSO FAVORS OUR NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN. DESPITE COLD FRONT WE SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COUPLE
EXCEPTIONS POSSIBLE. FIRST...ANVIL REMAINS OF CONVECTION ARE
STARTING TO CLEAR OUT...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALREADY OVER KGLD. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AT KMCK SOON AS WELL. THINKING A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG AS A RESULT OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS. SECOND...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT KGLD AND EAST
AT KMCK LATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH