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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170604
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1204 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

PER CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL DATA...INCREASED CHANCE AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

AFTER THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING...THERE LOOKS TO STILL BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF DUE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT. DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE AND MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
GETTING AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAINFALL...INSERTED FOG FROM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. DUE TO A RAIN COOLED MADE SOME
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. ALSO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND WIND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A FEW
STORMS HAVE BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REST OF THE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS WILL SUSTAIN MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS WITH THE BEST THREAT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ELSEWHERE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH WHILE THE
FORCING LOOKS TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN PEAK HEATING...BELIEVE
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS
LLJ INCREASES TO PRODUCE A LONGER HODOGRAPH TO SUSTAIN STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
SECONDARY THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER COMES IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING...MUGGY LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOME OF THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE SO CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL
ALSO SURGE TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A CAP COULD BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EVEN HIGHER. WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
TO 2500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -7 TO -10...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 7.5 TO 9.0 C/KM...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND 0-3 KM AGL HELICITIES OF 200-400
M2/S2...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKE A GOOD PROBABILITY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THERE COULD BE A
SECONDARY THREAT OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES BUT IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE LCLS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT.

ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL RAPIDLY DROP
BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 80S...POSSIBLY LOWER 90S. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY BUT HOW HIGH REMAINS THE QUESTION. FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY AT SOME POINT IF THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOW AN UPWARD TREND.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SWING THROUGH. ON
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TROUGH MONDAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY...ELIMINATING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF
NEXT WEEK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BUT WITH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO MINIMIZE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE KGLD SITE UNTIL AROUND
10Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD
DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCK WITH
FOG JUST ABOVE MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
SINCE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER