Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280428
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1028 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above normal temperatures will continue through the
  weekend before the next system moves in, bringing
  precipitation chances and cooler temperatures.

- Very High Grassland Fire Danger across East Colorado Thursday

- Near critical fire weather conditions looking more likely for
  Sunday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 752 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Newest guidance has come in a bit drier for tomorrow across the
west with lower dew points. I also did raise temperatures a few
degrees as snowfall continues to melt and the fact that the area
did overachieve on high temperatures for today as well. This may
be a similar situation again tomorrow as the low level flow is
more southwesterly which would support warmer temperatures and
drier conditions. An interesting feature, which may again be in
play for tomorrow if lapse rates can remain steep across the
highest elevation is that the developing EML can be used to mix
down lower dewpoints as some inverted v soundings are seen.
This was the case today along the Palmer divide where dewpoints
in the low teens to even single digits which was observed at
Limon was seen; which was anomalous to surrounding sites along
the Front Range and towards the KS/CO line. If this were to be
the case then perhaps higher fire danger threat may be realized.
Currently messaging very high GFDI and near critical fire
weather conditions but if the above scenario can be achieved
then some locally critical conditions may be seen.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

True color satellite shows some cu have developed across eastern
Colorado - these will lead to a few isolated elevated showers
and possibly some rumbles of thunder this afternoon. A southwest
to northeast oriented boundary currently crossing into Wallace,
Greeley counties has some slight potential for a landspout or
two to develop in the next few hours. Primary focus if one were
to develop would be over south-southwest portions of the area,
with the showers currently moving east-southeast through the
county border area of Kiowa, Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, and Greeley
counties before 22/23Z. SPC mesoanalysis shows a sfc vort max
in this area, along with up to around 250 J/kg 0-3 MLCAPE.
Shower chances are forecast to taper off within a few hours
after sunset. Snow cover lingers, most evident east of Hwy 25.
Temperatures as of 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) range from mid 40s
northeast to mid 50s west.

Tonight`s temperatures are forecast to fall into the low 20s
southwest to near 30 to the east. With light winds and mostly clear
skies, there is some potential (less than 20%) for patchy fog to
develop across eastern portions of the area overnight into tomorrow
morning - south-southeast winds are anticipated to veer towards the
southwest, thus leading to some uncertainty as winds with a westerly
component are typically unfavorable for development. The upper level
ridge is forecast to move over the area tomorrow. 850mb temperatures
are forecast to range in the ~10-16C range, allowing highs to climb
into the mid to upper 60s. RH falls into the 15-20% range along/west
of KS Hwy 27, but winds expected to remain below the 25 mph
threshold for critical fire weather conditions. Overnight lows are
forecast to fall into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Zonal to slightly southwesterly flow is expected at the start of the
long term period as the upper level ridge continues its eastward
progression and an upper low dives south along the west coast.
Drier/warmer conditions will prevail, and most if not all of the
snowpack is expected to have melted by Friday with temperatures
climbing into the 60s to low 70s. On Saturday, temperatures top out
in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Low pressure moving into the
southwest CONUS Sunday-Monday will have flow aloft backing
towards the southwest and precipitation chances increasing. Fire
weather concerns creep back in across southwest portions on
Sunday as temperatures climb into the mid 60s and 70s, RH falls
into the 15-20% range, and south-southwest winds gust 25-35
mph. With the associated cold front anticipated to move through
sometime early week, temperatures will fall back to below normal
and the area will see a few chances (~20-40%) for rain or
rain/snow before warming back up mid-week as the system departs
and ridging builds in. There are still differences between the
ECMWF and GFS at this timeframe, with the GFS hinting at more
moisture as compared to the ECMWF - will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal. SSW winds
will be prevalent around 10 knots before increasing during the
afternoon to high sustained around 15-20 knots. High clouds are
forecast to be present but should remain around 120-150. LLWS
remains in place at KMCK through 14Z as a trough passes through
the region.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Trigg


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