Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1040 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

The primary weather message in the short term are the elevated
fire weather conditions over the weekend.

The overall pattern shifts across the U.S. during the next few
days. With unidirectional northwest flow aloft expected across the
region as the jet stream moves over on Saturday will produce gusty
northwest winds across the region during the day. Winds speeds
will slacken somewhat on Sunday as the upper flow transitions to a
more westerly direction with a deepening of a lee surface. The
gradient will produce more west to southwest winds that will be
stronger along the southern and southeast portions of the forecast
area with an overall dryer airmass in place across the region.

With the dry and breezy conditions not quite lining up perfectly,
feel fire weather conditions will be elevated, especially with
high temperatures in the lower 70s across a portion of the
southern CWA on Sunday, but are expected to come up a little
short on meeting criteria. We`ll be close, so this will warrant
further consideration of the next couple of periods, but will not
issue any FWX highlights at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 137 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Going into the beginning of next week...Monday starts the region off
with another surge of arctic as a frontal boundary pushes south thru
the region during the day. H5/H7 shortwave will sweep east across
the region Monday night into Tuesday...triggering some light snow
with no accum. Surface ridge behind the front slow to shift
southward to provide warmup. Models trend in another night of cold
conditions before next warmup start for next Wednesday and Thursday.

For temps...Monday will have a wide range due to fropa with 20s
north to near 50F south. Otherwise...looking for highs to range from
20s on Tuesday...30s for the 40s for the end of the
week. Overnight lows will only be in the single numbers Monday and
Tuesday nights...teens Wednesday night to 20s for the remainder of
the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1029 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld, the
winds will start out south at 10 knots. At 08z those winds will
shift to the west at 9 knots as low level wind shear develops.
From 16z-17z the low level wind shear ends as the winds shift to
the northwest and increase to near 20 knots with gusts to around
28 knots. Those winds will continue until late in the afternoon
when there is a quick shift to the south southeast at 11 knots.
Those south winds continue until 03z when they increase to near 19
knots with gusts to around 27 knots as low level wind shear

For Kmck, south winds will start at 7 knots. At 08z those winds
will shift to the southwest at around the same speed and low level
wind shear also develops during this time. At 12z the winds shift
to the west at 10 knots as low level wind shear continues. At 16z
the low level wind shear ends as the west winds increase to near
15 knots with gusts to around 23 knots. Those winds continue until
00z when they have rapidly shifted to the southeast at near 9
knots. Southeast winds continue at 03z with low level shear once
again develop at this time.




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