Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 200518
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1118 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Large scale ridge remains in place across the Plains, with main
monsoonal plume further northwest than it has been the last 3 days.

Regarding thunderstorm chances: Mean upper level jet stream and axis
of better deep moisture is well northwest of our CWA and
subsidence/much more stable air is in place. An axis of 1500 J/KG ML
CAPE may develop near the surface trough in eastern Colorado, but
lack of organized forcing and a strong CAP will likely preclude any
thunderstorm development this afternoon and tonight. A few models
show activity in the higher terrain in CO spreading east, but
quickly falling apart before reaching our far northwest CWA. Some
models are showing a slightly better precip signal by late Thursday
afternoon in far western Yuma county. Concerns with CAP strength and
unfavorable track from region of initation lowered confidence enough
to hold off on introduction of thunderstorms.

Regarding temperatures/Heat Advisory: There are some questions to
location of possible pre frontal trough axis near our north, but
even then we are in line for another day of 100+ degree temps, and
Tds should remain near our above advisory criteria in our
north/northeast. Heat advisory criteria is already occurring, with
temp trends faster/higher than yesterday. Models are actually
showing a slight upward trend in temps aloft, so we may be a few
decrees warmer Thursday than today. Overnight lows are remaining
very warm in similar locations, and heat index values at night might
not drop below 75 for man locations in our east. After coordination
the decision was made to extend current advisory (same locations)
through tonight and into Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Thursday night-Saturday: With strong upper level ridging in place,
very hot conditions will persist across the area Thursday night
and Friday, especially for the northeastern half of the CWA. After
talking with neighbors, decided not to issue Heat Advisory at
this time. Current forecast shows portions of Norton and Graham
Counties not dropping below 75 degrees Thursday night and
widespread areas with heat indices of 105+ degrees Friday. Cold
front approaches the area Friday afternoon. Will see a chance of
thunderstorms, mainly from Friday night through Saturday
afternoon, some which may become severe. Greatest threat looks to
be damaging winds at this time.

Sunday-Monday: Still some question as to how far south the cold
front progresses. Models appear to bring it towards the southern
portions of the area through Sunday and stall it out. Most areas
will finally see temperatures return to average levels. With
boundary still lingering in the area and shortwave trough
approaching, CWA will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms
both days.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Frontal boundary will lift back to the
northeast as a warm front. Upper level ridging builds across the
Central Plains. Temperatures warm through the period with highs
slightly above normal across the entire CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Central
high plains will be under a strong ridge, with thunderstorms
riding around it, but both terminals expected to remain dry.
Outflow boundaries may temporarily result in changes of wind
directions and speeds, but primarily will be out of the south to
southwest at 10-15 kts, with a few higher gusts Thursday
afternoon with deep mixing.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...024


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