Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 041554
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
954 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST
DATA. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING IN SLOWER WITH THE LIFT AND
KEEPING THE STRONGEST LIFT NORTH OR EAST OF THE AREA.

FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ANY STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE WEST OF THE AREA A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LOOKS LIKE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE NOT INTO THE AREA UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOW...AROUND 10 MPH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD FOR THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST DATA SHOWS A DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN
SIZE DEVELOPING OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA MOVES EASTWARD. AS IT DOES SO LIFT WITH IT WILL
DECLINE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA. DID NOTICE THAT
THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE EITHER NORTH OR EAST OF THE AREA. WITH
WEAK LIFT AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 40MB OR SO AT THE
LOWEST...AM VERY SKEPTICAL IF STORMS WILL FORM AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
AGREEING WITH THIS IDEA. HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO CUT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL TOO DRASTICALLY SO DROPPED THEM BY 10 PERCENT FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SO HAVE INSERTED
PATCHY FOG UNTIL MID MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE/COVERAGE/TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCK FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. STRONG
AND CLOSED SYSTEM SLOWING DIGGING TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA. STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALOFT. AIR MASS THROUGH
700 MB HAS BECOME MORE MOIST THAN 24 HOURS AGO. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL IS DRAPED NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING MUCH BETTER THAN THE
REMAINING OUTPUT ON THE JET AXIS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.
THE OTHER OUTPUT HAD THE AXIS TOO FAR SOUTHWEST. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND NAM.
THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE
WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. ALL THE MODELS DID ABOUT THE SAME AND WELL
ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM A
LITTLE BETTER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
WAS NEAR THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA. ALSO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. WILL HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LINGERING
LIFT.

AT THE END OF THE DAY THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO WESTERN HALF IS IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. THIS RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVES EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. A RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTION...THROUGH THE NIGHT ONE NEGATIVE FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IS THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR PLUS 15. HOWEVER FURTHER EAST THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER AND DEFINITELY BREAKABLE.

THERE IS MORE OF CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND HAD
NO PROBLEM KEEPING THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THE DAY SHIFT HAD IN
THERE. HOWEVER... SLOWED THE TIMING DOWN AND PUT THE HIGHER POPS
INITIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE THE WEAKEST CAP WAS. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. ALSO SLOWER STORM MOVEMENTS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS MORE CONSISTENT ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DID NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AFTER THE
OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
FOR THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM IN THE WEST...WHERE
THE BEST FORCING WILL BE...IS THAT THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE PLUS 15 TO 18 RANGE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE. ALSO
THAT FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER IN WHEN THEY BRING THE FRONT THROUGH. THE ECMWF
AND ECMWF...NAM THEN THE CANADIAN ARE THE SLOWEST WITH THE GFS
FOLLOWED BY THE SREF AS THE FASTEST. BASED ON THE FLOW ALOFT AND
WHERE THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS A LITTLE
TOO FAST. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE SLOWER TO MIDDLE RANGE ON THE
FRONTAL SPEED. SO SAYING ALL THAT...WILL DELAY THE POPS UNTIL THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

COVERAGE/ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NIGHT NOT AS CLEAR AS
YESTERDAY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ON SURFACE FEATURES AND WHERE
EXACTLY THE BEST FORCING WILL BE. IT DID NOT LOOK TOO DIFFERENT
FROM YESTERDAY BUT BIG DIFFERENCES IN WHERE MODELS PUT THE
PRECIPITATION HAVE RESULTED. GEFS PROBABILITIES NOT AS EXCITED AS
THEY WERE YESTERDAY ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS. STILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS BUT AS WITH THE DAYTIME TREND...THE ONSET OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY.

DUE TO A LATER ONSET OF STORMS AND LESS SHEAR...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT AS GREAT AS IT WILL BE TODAY. STORM MOVEMENTS LOOK TO
BE FASTER THAN WHAT WILL HAPPEN TODAY. HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE EVEN HIGHER THAN TODAY. SO BELIEVE THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS.

MODELS SAY IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT
THAT. HOWEVER...AM HESITANT TO GO TOWARD THE WARMEST READINGS. ONE
THING FOR SURE IT WILL BE WINDY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS/MOVES
NEAR/OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS
AREA MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THE
FRONT AND THE DEEPEST/STRONGEST LIFT ARE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING BEFORE EXITING BY THE END OF THE DAY. SO
THAT WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RAINFALL ENDS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.

FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ARE REFLECTED IN HOW COOL IT
WILL GET. DEPENDING ON HOW WARM IT GETS SUNDAY...IT COULD BE AS MUCH
AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER. LOWERED THE MAXES A LITTLE. WITH COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLEARING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND
DEVELOPING...IT WILL GET QUITE COOL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY.  A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN 850MB CONVERGENCE ZONE EXITS THE AREA.  ALTHOUGH
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 18 AND 20
C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
SLIDE INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE.  ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES...ESPECIALLY
AT KGLD...DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF
WITHIN A FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SINCE IT IS
NEAR HALF WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHOSE ONLY TO PUT VCTS INTO THE
TAF. MORE DEFINITE TIMING SHOULD BE FIGURED OUT BY THE NEXT TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER


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