Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 271927
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
127 PM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 106 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016
Dry and warm conditions will continue.
The upper ridge strengthens over the High Plains region through
tonight and Wednesday with the high over the Gulf of Mexico
extending northward into southern Canada by Wednesday evening.
It appears a weak trough/cold front moves through the central high
plains region overnight. This will bring slightly cooler high
temperatures to the forecast area on Wednesday as the cold air
advection veers through the day and becomes return flow around a
high pressure area that will be pushing deeper into the central
plains from the northern plains.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016
For this extended forecast period, the main concern will be a large-
scale pattern shift that is expected to take place across the
Continental United States. Early in the period (tomorrow night
through Friday), a large upper level low will be situated over the
eastern United States, a ridge of high pressure dominating the Great
Plains, and a weakening Rex Block over the western United States.
For Thursday and Friday, anticipate dry weather and seasonable
temperatures as a result of this Great Plains ridge.
The large-scale upper level pattern shift will take place this
weekend. The eastern US low lifts northeast into southeastern
Canada, the high pressure ridge weakens, and a large upper level
trough moves from the Pacific northwest toward the Rockies. As the
trough begins to influence the High Plains, there could be a few
isolated storms Saturday and Sunday. However, moisture and
instability appear quite low so this could easily amount to nothing
as the weak lead disturbances pass through.
The main upper level trough should move out across the Great Plains
next week; the exact day depends on which guidance member you
choose. As this disturbance passes through, showers and storms are
possible. In addition, a cold front should pass as well. Cooler
temperatures should be expected behind the front. Current
indications are that below freezing temperatures are unlikely but
this will be something to keep an eye on.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016
High pressure dominates the pattern with VFR conditions under
clear skies and variable winds of 6kts or less through the TAF
period at both locations.