Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 012341
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
441 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COINCIDENTALLY MATCHES UP WITH
WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURRED A FEW DAYS AGO. COMPARING IT TO CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS IT BE IGNORED.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS AROUND
40KTS POSSIBLE. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WINDS
AND SUPPORTED BY SREF 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND PROBABILITIES. MET
GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS A BIT LOWER.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY. ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH WHAT THE NAM MODEL THINKS IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN KIT
CARSON AND ALL OF CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. CO-OP AND COCORAHS
DATA SUGGESTS THESE VALUES ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE. WILL WORK TO IGNORE
NAM/SREF 2M TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. OTHER CONCERN IS HOW FAST THE
WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GFS (AS HAS BEEN THE
CAST THE PAST FEW DAYS) CONTINUES TO BRING IT IN FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF/UKMET. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARENT THE BEST FOR BRINGING THIS AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
SO...WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. COULD SEE MID 40S ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GET CLOSE TO THE SITE BY LATE EVENING. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE THIS SNOW. SINCE IT WILL BE
CLOSE ALONG WITH THE LOW CHANCE...KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VICINITY
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE TO DONE BEFORE 12Z. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SO WILL
KEEP THE CONDITIONS VFR WITH ONLY A SCATTERED MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS.
VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
CONTINUES TO EVEN BEYOND THE END OF THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHT SNOW WILL STAY TO THE WEST OF
THE SITE SO WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF ANY SNOW. BY LATE MORNING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED JUST UNDER 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO JUST UNDER 35 KNOTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.