000
FXUS63 KGLD 232352
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
552 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE
LARGER SCALE WE HAVE A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEPARTING THE PLAINS AND
MOVING EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY ARE LIMITING HIGH
TEMPS...THOUGH AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LIME FROM WRAY COLORADO TO GOVE
KANSAS ARE EXPERIENCING SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY PUSH THEM UP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT. AM MORE CONFIDENT IN FOG THIS EVENING THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS
COUNTIES. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO. FOG AND CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH ALONG THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. IN
THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEAK TROUGH TO
FORM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A
CAP IN PLACE...BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
KANSAS/NEBRASKA COUNTIES. STORMS WILL BEGIN AROUND 21Z AND LAST INTO
THE EVENING...WITH STORM MOTIONS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 20-25
MPH. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG AND GREATER WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY TO PARCELS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS LOOK ESPECIALLY ATTRACTIVE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR FROM 0-3KM AGL OF AROUND 30 KTS
ALONE. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS ALSO DECENT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A SIZABLE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG WINDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. LCL HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 1KM...SO WHILE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY HEADS
EAST. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD HANG AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SOME FOG TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SURFACE BASED
CAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG...LIFTED INDICIES OF -6 TO -9...850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9 C/KM...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS...FAVORABLE
VEERING OF THE WINDS AND A WEAKER CAP THAN ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE EAST
OR NORTHEAST. EASTERN COLORADO MAY MISS OUT AS THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. DEWPOINTS...AND
THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE ADVANCING
DRYLINE. IF WINDS ARE GUSTY BEHIND THE DRYLINE...FIRE WEATHER WOULD
BECOME A CONCERN...MAINLY ACROSS EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON FUELS AND HOW MUCH RAIN IS RECEIVED ON FRIDAY.

WITH A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS ON TUESDAY. ALL MODELS
SHOW THAT A LARGER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS ENERGY IS THE MAIN DIFFERENCE. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS IT WILL
BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND SWING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WOULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS THIS ENERGY WILL BECOME MORE OF A
CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS THEN
PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE EUROPEAN WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
BETTER RAINS AS WELL AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. EITHER WAY...THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME OF BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER...MUCH NEEDED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING EASTERLY FLOW TO THE
REGION...PROVIDING THE NECESSARY UPSLOPE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST
WILL CHANGE THE WIND DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTH...BRINGING
MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND THICK
STRATUS CLOUDS WITH LOW CEILINGS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WHICH WILL DROP VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TERMINAL SITES. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
MVFR NEAR SUNDOWN. AS TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED
LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART/MK