Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE REGION LIES UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN SPOTS...WITH TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST SPOTS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND BROAD H5 RIDGE MOVING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AIDING IN
BRINGING RECORD NUMBERS TO THE REGION. SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT...TRAVERSING
THE CWA GOING ITO WEDNESDAY AS H5 FLATTENS...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL
FLOW. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING SHORTWAVE ON THE DOORSTEP OF OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 09Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRAVERSE AREA THRU
THE DAY. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WINDS MIXING DOWN
FROM THE 750-800MB LEVEL FROM 12Z-21Z WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK WIND
POTENTIAL 40-45MPH AFT 18Z. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO WILL KEEP IN. GRADIENT DOES SLACKEN AS TROUGH SHIFT
EASTWARD BY 00Z THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GO THRU DRY WITH LACK OF
ANY MAJOR RH FEED WITH RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY WITH NUMBERS RANGING NEAR 60F WEST...TO
THE MID 65S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT LEAST
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE CLEAR SKIES WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGHS ARRIVAL WILL IMPACT CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AS WELL AS COLD FRONTS ARRIVAL. ONCE THE FRONT DOES MOVE
THROUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY BEFORE
DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

SUNDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE (FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE) THAT CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE LEAVING A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY. DURING
THE NIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST
PRODUCING A PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. MAY SEE A BIT OF
GUSTINESS TO THE WIND DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 20S
TO LOW 30S (EAST TO WEST). HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF/GFS
OF -3C TO -14C (WEST TO EAST) AND LATEST MEX GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT
READINGS A FEW TO PERHAPS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY 10F TO 16F...COLDEST ACROSS THE EAST AND PARTS OF FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

MONDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THAT PERHAPS MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
(PER MODEL RH FORECASTS) THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SHOULD BE DRY
DURING THE DAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR MUCH OF OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES WHERE 850-500RH MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE PAINTS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MCCOOK
AND NORTON AREAS OVERNIGHT...CANT SAY IT WONT HAPPEN PER ABOVE
MENTIONED 850-500 MOISTURE SO WILL RIDE WITH IT FOR NOW. WARM AIR
ALOFT NUDGES ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA UNDER THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 30S
EAST AND LOW 40S WEST LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE 850MB FORECAST TEMPS. LOW
TEMPERATURES MID TEENS EAST TO LOW 20S WEST.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE EXTENDED PROCEDURES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT AS ECMWF/GFS 850-
500RH FORECASTS PUSH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM AND CURRENT FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 30S EAST
TO LOW/MID 40S WEST LOOKS REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE 8-12KT
RANGE AFTER 09Z AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH
PREVAILING NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-35KT RANGE...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...HOWEVER PREVAILING
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-20KT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINING IN
PLACE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR



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