Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 120852
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN
TURN NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND
AMPLIFIES.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHWEST BUT BY AFTERNOON STORMS WILL FIRE THERE
AND PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL.  THE NAM
BRINGS IT IN THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT IN BY EARLY
EVENING. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SHEAR FROM 25
TO 30 KTS. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO ANY FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.  BY LATE AFTERNOON A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP POPS AT LOW CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT A SECOND FRONT SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA
MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA PROVIDING GOOD FORCING.
STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FA.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 80S TODAY COOLING TO THE MID
80S SUNDAY/MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S COOLING
TO THE UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES
TO BE THE PROGRESS OF THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ENSUING TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY.  THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION.  EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHICH IS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  AT THE
SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER
BASIN BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.  THIS
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND FOR THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH AS GOOD THETA E
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LOOKING BETTER WITH MODEL AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT LACK OF INSTABILITY
ALOFT FROM CURRENT TRENDS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BE THE LAST
BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN EAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN COMBINATION
WITH ADVECTION OF DRY AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY.  THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...BUT
CHANCES ARE SLIM AT THIS POINT IN TIME.  WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S...AND RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN EAST/NORTH OF KMCK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER IF IT
DOES MOVE OVER THE SITE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS FOR KGLD NEAR SUNRISE. HOWEVER WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO WITH A CEILING IN EITHER OF THOSE CATEGORIES...ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
RAINFALL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL





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