Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 180400
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD
COVER STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.

A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH
MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THIS
TIME. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
DEEPENING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY INSTEAD
OF MOVING IT EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS DOES. EITHER
WAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS.

SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING FROM 15Z-23Z AT KGLD...PEAKING
25-30KTS 25KTS IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WIND
5-10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 14Z.

FOR KMCK LGT/VRB WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
5-10KTS BY 16Z. SOME GUSTINESS TO 20KTS EXPECTED IN THE 20Z-22Z
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99


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