Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 230336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
836 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST FOR LATEST COUPLE HOURS OF OBS ACROSS THE
AREA. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AREAS EITHER MOSTLY CLOUDY OR
CLOUDY AS A RESULT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER REGION. SOME
EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS RESULTING
FROM LOW LEVEL STRATUS WORKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. FOG WAS SHOWING
UP IN OBS EAST OF THE CWA UNDER THAT STRATUS LAYER...BUT RECENTLY
NONE SO HAVE LEFT OUT IN RECENT UPDATE BUT WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A LOT OF THINGS TO LOOK AT TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON SAW VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION. IT LOOKS QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN A STRONG FRONT
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH. THE FRONT AND
LIFT ALOFT DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING...SOME JET HELP...AND WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY.

THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW BUT THEY ARE NOT NEGATIVE. CONSIDERING
THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...AM THINKING THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER MILD THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH 30S EXPECTED AND MOST LOCATIONS NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING. SO AM KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION AS A MIX. EXPECT THE
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. AIR MASS DRIES OUT AND SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BY
LATE MORNING.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE WINDS. RATHER STRONG GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. ON AVERAGE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THERE IS 40 TO
45 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS DO HAVE 50
KNOTS AT VARIOUS TIMES. AM CONCERNED WITH THIS FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS. ONE WHEN HE LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTS...THAT COULD MIX
DOWN HIGHER WINDS THAN WHAT I HAVE IN THERE. AND ALSO WHEN THE
SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN THE LAPSE RATES WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR HIGHER
WINDS TO COME TO THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SAYING NO.

AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
COOLING FOR TOMORROW AND WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAYS READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT AND POOR MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
CHARACTERIZE THIS ISSUANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. OVERALL...LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEGINNING WITH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH FROM
MONTANA TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT THE
TIME OF DISTURBANCE PASSAGE SHOULD BE AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATING MUCAPE OF AROUND 100 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE BUT GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND FORCING...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 750 MB TO THE
TROPOPAUSE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THERE IS SOME DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE BUT FELT THIS COULD BE OVERCOME BY ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DEVELOPS. PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST BASED ON
THIS THINKING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST FROM NEAR
40 TO THE UPPER 40S WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FURTHER WEST. MENTIONED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POPS AS A QUICK COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH PRECIPITATION PROCESSES MAY ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND.

A WARM FRONT/LEE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A BRIEF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
VARYING WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD LIES.
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
BUT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON TIMING. OVERALL...IT SEEMS THERE
ARE THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...1. AN EARLIER FRONT ARRIVAL AS THE
12Z CANADIAN RUN AND 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS SUGGEST DUE TO A
CLIPPER SYSTEM FORCING THE FRONT DOWN...2. A LATER FRONT ARRIVAL DUE
TO A STRONGER RIDGE AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12Z
EUROPEAN AND 3. A FRONT PASSAGE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL. THERE WERE LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS COMPARED TO
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SO IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY LEANING ON THESE
SOLUTIONS. WITH COLLABORATION FROM NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO LEAVE MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD UNTOUCHED WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS
THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION. THIS WOULD MEAN A COOLING TREND
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM
BKN200 TO START AND DROPPING DOWN TO BKN060 BY 11Z SUNDAY. FRONT
COMING THRU OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RW/SW WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. SW WINDS TO START
WILL SHIFT TO WNW OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTH BY 12Z SUNDAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10-20KTS THRU 12Z SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE TO
20-30KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS FOR BOTH SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 231 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WEST WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/LEE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A VERY
DRY AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. IF LESS CLOUD COVER IS REALIZED...IT
IS LIKELY THAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE REACHED...LEADING TO
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THUS
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AS WELL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DENSE
CIRRUS IS MORE LIKELY...PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM DEVELOPING. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER LATER FORECAST RUNS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...RRH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.