Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290902
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

COUPLE OF DIFFERENT BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA. WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF MY AREA. SYNOPTIC SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR DRYLINE IS
LOCATED OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. INSTABILITY...SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE ARE LOCATED NEAR OR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF MY AREA. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO WEAK BUT BROAD JET
LEVEL SUPPORT. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
MY AREA TO ALLOW HEATING TO OCCUR.

AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO THE WEST OF MY AREA. WITH
ALL THE PARAMETERS IN PLACE EXPECT THIS DEVELOP TO SPREAD EAST AND
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON IT
LOOKS A LIKE A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF MY AREA. THIS AREA THEN PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING TO LINE
UP WITH WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LIFT ARE LOCATED.

STORM MOTIONS LOOK FASTER BY PWS ARE ONE INCH PLUS OVER MY AREA.
AREA OF EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT AND STORM MOVEMENT LOOK TO BE IN SOME
OF THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT HAD HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. AS A
RESULT CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FOR FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE REPRIEVE FROM THE PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...STRONG AND COLD UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS. ALSO LOOK TO HAVE SOME JET SUPPORT AS WELL WITH SOME
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY BEGINNING LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. ALSO EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME PRECIPITATION. SO TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION...THOUGH ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE. SO...THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DECENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL COUNT ON THE MID LAYER SUBSIDENCE...LACK OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND GFS SOLUTION TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 25-30 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE...SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 80S.

MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
500 MB TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND ADVECTS
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY. EVEN THE
GFS HINTS AT A DRY LINE FORMING OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON. CAPES EAST OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER 2000 J/KG. WITH
LESS SUBSIDENCE...MENTIONED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 TUESDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE DECENT
ASCENT...SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS. MID LEVEL SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT CAPES AGAIN WILL BE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL MID EVENING
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT BOTH SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CAPE VALUES
DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY IN THE EVENING SO SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT TYPE OF WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH SITES
INDICATE THAT CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LATE EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...FS


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