Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 310956
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
356 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NORTON AND HILL CITY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSASWITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THOSE STATES BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP FOG.

BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING FOG...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A LOW CENTER MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION BRING PERIODIC
INCREASES IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FEEL ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INSTEAD
OF INITIATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER PRIMARILY THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 90S WHILE LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH


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