Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250804
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
204 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 116 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Updated forecast to reflect current radar trends. Widespread
showers/embedded thunderstorms have developed across NW Kansas
ahead of an incoming shortwave. Precipitation should continue
sliding northeast through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Much of the forecast area (except extreme west and east) caught
underneath mid level dry slot this afternoon which has greatly
diminished precipitation coverage. This looks to continue into the
early evening hours before an increase in moisture moves across the
southern half of the area from southern Colorado around midnight
associated with the approach of an upper trough. After midnight the
plume of moisture slowly lifts northeast favoring areas east of a
line from Norton to Gove and Tribune. With little to no instability
rain showers will be the primary precipitation type. Low
temperatures should fall into the upper 40s to low 50s in far
eastern Colorado with low to upper 50s east of the border.

On Thursday the upper trough and better moisture slowly move east
through mid to late afternoon before ending late in the day.
Afternoon temperatures should peak in the mid 70s to near 80 across
the area. It should be noted that the 18z NAM has come in more
aggressive with qpf tonight and tomorrow. If it verifies
temperatures across the southern half of the area would be much
cooler given extensive low cloudiness and a bit better chance of
precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A ridge builds into the region during the extended
period, causing thunderstorm chances to trend downward and
temperatures to rise.

On Sunday, an upper trough continues to pass east of the High
Plains, with upper level ridging starting to build in behind.
Monsoonal moisture will continue to travel north under the ridge as
it develops and pushes over the area. The highest chance for showers
and thunderstorms during this period appears to be Sunday night when
a disturbance passes through the flow and a boundary moves back into
Kansas. Precipitation chances quickly dwindle early next week as the
ridge amplifies, with only slight chances for storms Monday through
Tuesday in the southeastern CWA and nil PoPs Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Temperatures jump into the mid to upper 80s at the start of the
extended period and remain there through Tuesday before a slight
increase into the upper 80s/low 90s for Wednesday. Low temperatures
look to be generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Conditions at MCK and GLD will start out VFR and remain VFR
through the majority of the TAF period. As light north northeast
near surface flow turns to a more easterly upslope flow around the
surface high pressure area that moves into the plains states
through the day on Thursday, expect dewpoints to increase from
the middle 50s to the upper 50s and ceiling to become MVFR after
about 02Z with a possibility of IFR conditions mainly due to low
ceilings towards the end of the TAF period.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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