000
FXUS63 KGLD 171057
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
457 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected along/south
  of Interstate 70 and along/west of Highway 27 afternoon.

- Winter weather may return to portions of the area Friday
  night into Saturday, when rain could mix with, or transition
  to, wet snow. Light snow accumulation is possible (mainly on
  grassy and elevated surfaces). Significant impacts are not
  anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are clear as high
pressure continues to transition across the area. As of 300 AM MDT,
winds are light/variable with temperatures ranging widely from the
upper 30s in parts to the mid and upper 40s.

For the short term period, weather concerns will focus on near
critical fire wx conditions over portions of the region this
afternoon, rain/thunder tonight especially north of I-70 and
possible mixing with some light snow late in the northwest tonight.
Another rain/snow chance occurs mainly Friday/Friday night.

Looking aloft, the latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water
vapor imagery are showing amplified ridging over the Plains, with a
weak shortwave over the central Rockies.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: weak westerly flow this morning will
eventually transition to a southerly flow by the afternoon hours as
high pressure sets up east and a broad low/trough forms over the
Colorado area. The southerly gradient expected will provide decent
downslope warming for the region, for a round of above normal temps
and very dry conditions, especially for SW zones. Afternoon RH
values will drop into the lower to mid teens with winds around 20
mph for a few hours. With this, have opted not to issue a Red Flag
Warning for locales south of I-70 and along/west of Highway 27 but
should be monitored nonetheless.

Going into the evening/overnight, the shortwave over the central
Rockies will move on an eastward trek through the Plains. The
surface low over the Colorado area will move in tandem with this
system over southern Kansas, with an attached front trailing east
into Kansas ahead of the circulation. The latest CAMs (HRRR, RAP and
NamNest) show varied precip coverage that develops, but the overall
trend remains for the areas along/north of I-70 seeing the chances
for precip this round. Some weak instability overnight in the east
may trigger a few thunderstorms, but overall showers will be the
main p-type. Some colder air in Yuma/Dundy counties could allow for
a rw/sw mix before tapering going into Thursday morning. Not looking
for any snow accum for this event.

Thursday/Thursday night: precip ends Thursday morning as a strong
surface ridge noses south from the northern Plains/Rockies. The
northerly flow ahead of the ridge axis will bring gust potential
into the 30-40 mph range before trending lower and shifting easterly
by Thursday night.

The east-southeast flow will persist Thursday night into Friday
night. This is going to allow ample low level moisture to feed into
the area, combining with upslope effects to increase cloud cover.
Looking for light rain, mixing with snow showers to occur by Friday
and carry into the remainder of the short term period. 850 mb ridge
does build over the region late Thursday and eventually shifts east,
enhancing to E/SE flow into the region. This will help to increase
areal coverage of precip by late Friday/Friday night. Overall
looking for 20-30% chances to hold over NW zones until Friday night
when precip chances increase area-wide (40-50% south/60-70% north).
Up to one to two tenths qpf could result through Friday night. As
colder air works over the region Friday night(06z-12z Saturday), the
increased chance for more snow showers will occur. Looking for up to
a half inch snowfall for areas along/north of I-70 and along/west of
Highway 25. Elsewhere, a trace to a few tenths of an inch possible.

For temps, looking for daytime highs today to range in the mid 70s
to lower 80s. Warmest areas will be located in Kansas, south of the
Interstate. Going into Thursday, mainly 50s are expected with
northwest portions of the CWA seeing upper 40s. For Friday, mainly
mid and upper 50s. A few locales south of Highway 40 could see the
60F mark.

Overnight lows tonight will range widely as colder air works south.
Looking for lower to mid 30s west into the upper 30s to around 40F
east. Thursday night, lower to mid 30s expected, and for Friday
night, upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For the long term period, the overall forecast calls for generally
cool temperatures and some chances and precipitation.

Saturday and Sunday are forecast to generally be under northwest
flow as the upper low over the Central CONUS shifts off to the east.
Saturday has the potential to be significantly cooler than average
with high temperatures forecast in the 40`s. Temperatures could be
even cooler in the 30`s if thick cloud cover remains through the day
as some guidance is suggesting. Conversely, if the clouds break
earlier in the day, highs could approach 50. There is a chance for
precipitation, but it will depend on if a shortwave moves through
the larger flow. If so, some rain and snow showers would be possible
with no impacts expected. Sunday would then be warmer on the back
side of the system and with potential ridging aloft.

There`s not much agreement on the upper pattern going into next
week. So unfortunately, there is not much confidence in the
conditions to start the week. Most solutions do have another
shortwave disturbance moving through which would help keep
temperatures near or below average to begin the week and give a
chance for precipitation. The mid part of the week will depend
on if an upper ridge can setup over the area, or if a larger
trough from the west pushes it off to the east quickly.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through much of the forecast period,
with MVFR ceilings from 06z Thursday onward. Winds, west 5-
10kts, becoming south around 10kts by 15z. From 18z, increasing
to 10-20kts then veering northerly from 03z Thursday onward
20-30kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through about 20z Wed-00z Thu, then
trending to MVFR by 06z as ceilings drop to around OVC020 and
6sm in light rain. Winds, light/variable through 16z, then
southeast up to 15-25kts. By 02z Thursday, becoming northeast
10-15kts increasing to around 20-30kts by 04z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN