Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED THIS MORNING AS STRATUS ERODES FROM
WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR KMCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SOUTH
WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG SHOULD
BECOME A PROBLEM WHERE MOISTURE POOLS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.
THIS CONFINES FOG THREAT TO KMCK TONIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
FOG COULD BE DENSE. LOWERED VIS AT KMCK TO IFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING AS FOG/STRATUS ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...RRH



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