Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011718
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE YET THIS MORNING AND WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST.  A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH ALL SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
850 TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND ZERO.  SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA
MONDAY.  A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. FURTHERMORE, THE NAM IS NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH GFS QPF SO WILL OPT TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NIL POPS ACROSS THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL T0 NEAR OR JUST BELOW 30
DEGREES IN PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH 32 TO 37 EAST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER.  THE OFFICIAL LAST FREEZE FOR EASTERN COLORADO
RANGES FROM MAY 5 TO MAY 11.  FOR THIS REASON A FROST OR FREEZE
HIGHLIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ZONES ARE IN A
SIMILAR SITUATION.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO AROUND 50 IN THE EASTERN FA. MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND LOWER TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AMPLIFIED RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WENT WITH DRY POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY AND STAYED WITH SLGT CHC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEP H5 TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY HOWEVER SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
INDICATES A SHARPLY NEGATIVE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
POSITIVE SOLUTION. THE POSITION OF THE LOW IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
BETWEEN THE TWO AND WE WILL SEE POPS INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT WE COULD SEE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
PRESENCE OF DECENT CAPE...1200 TO 1850 J/KG...AND LOW TO MODEST
SHEAR. AT THIS POINT THE GUIDANCE IS VERY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT/BREAK UP. IN FACT...HOLES IN
THE DENSE CLOUD COVER ARE NOTED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS IS
THE RESULT OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. TONIGHT`S
DISTURBANCE SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT WITH ALL PRECIPITATION/POOR
CIGS REMAINING WELL SOUTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS FOR REST OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH


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