Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301916
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
116 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NAM/GFS DO DIFFER SOME GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NAM DIGS TROUGH A BIT DEEPER SOUTH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH GFS KEEPING BULK OF POTENTIAL PRECIP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND POINTS NORTH. REMNANTS OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DO CUT
OFF SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO FORM LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ALONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS...CLRING REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
AREA...WITH 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
ANY REMNANTS FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LIGHT TRW/RW ACTIVITY AS FRONT
SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.


HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TRW/RW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED AS NEXT MODEL
RUNS PROGRESS AS LOOKING MORE LIKE A ROUND OF SEVERE WX IN
INEVITABLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN SL RISK FOR THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE...WHICH WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS(PW/S 1 TO ~2").

TEMPS FOR SUN THRU MON NGT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE
MID 80S DUE TO COOLER AIR INFILTRATION WITH LOW PASSAGE/PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
EAST.

ON TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR MASS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. ASIDE FROM NUDGING MIN
TEMPS TOWARD SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE BLEND THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY
THEN AND SO OVERALL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO. THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO LATE WEEK PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM


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