Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1252 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over Southern Canada
extending south to the Northern Plains.  Within the northwest flow
over the Northern Plains were a couple subtle short wave troughs.
Under the southern short wave trough visible satellite shows a
developing line of cumulus clouds over Central Nebraska. At the
surface a weak cold front extends northwest to southeast over the
Northern Plains.

For the rest of the afternoon Red Willow, Norton and possibly
Hitchcock counties may have a chance for some isolated storms as a
short wave trough moves through. Most of any storm activity that
develops should be east of these counties.

Tonight the upper level short wave trough over North Dakota will
move south over the Tri-State Area along with the cold front.  There
will be enough lift and low dew point depressions above 700mb to
possibly generate some isolated showers as the front moves through,
mainly over the east half of the area.  Due to the cooler air mass
moving through, lows will be cooler than last night.

Monday morning there may be some isolated showers over the central
part of the area as lift increases over an axis of higher theta-e
values.  In the latter half of the afternoon thunderstorms will
begin to move in from the west as another short wave trough moves
southeast, with storm activity grazing the southwest quadrant of the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Monday night-Tuesday: Showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible Monday night across the area. On Tuesday, a shortwave
trough pushes into the area from the northwest helping to provide
extra lift and giving most areas along and south of I-70 a chance
of rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be close to normal.

Wednesday-Sunday: Models have some better agreement for this period.
Cold front lifts back across the area Wednesday as a warm front
providing a focus for thunderstorm development. Marginal severe
parameters will be in place (MUCAPE ~1300 J/kg, 0-6km shear ~30 kt)
along with strong WAA in the low to mid levels. Models have backed
off on precipitation through the rest of the period compared to
yesterday. Have lowered QPF for Friday and Saturday. Rain chances
for Thursday have been totally removed. It should be noted that the
12Z ECMWF run is even drier than the other global models for next
weekend showing very little rain for Friday through Saturday night
as upper level ridging dominates the flow over the region.
Temperatures should be above normal for the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. KMCK may have a lone storm
move near the site between 21-0z. Otherwise most of the activity
should be east of the site. Another round of isolated storms may
start moving through around 6z along a weak cold front. Isolated
storms are possible across the east 2/3s of the forecast area.
KGLD may have another round of storms after that develop near the
site Monday morning. In all three instances the coverage will be
low enough that do not have enough confidence to place a mention
in the TAFs.




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