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000
FXUS63 KGLD 131113
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
513 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND FLATTEN SOME
TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE FA . POPS WILL
BE NIL FOR THESE PERIODS. TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
BE DRY AS WELL BUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL REACH
2300 J/KG NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED FROM NEAR NORTON TO CHEYENNE
WELLS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES BY LATE EVENING TO WELL OVER
100 SO PLAN TO REMOVE THUNDER AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE
NIL POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80. MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
50S WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

THE MID-WEEK ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER EASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IS BETWEEN THOSE TWO FEATURES WITH AN
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW THAT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT...A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MONTANA TO NEW
MEXICO. WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY IN THE
VICINITY AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE WESTERN SECTIONS AS THE
SURFACE THROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...FS