Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



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