Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1145 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Upper ridge will rebuild across the region today resulting in dry
conditions. Temperatures should be able to warm to near normal if
clouds can break, which latest SREF shows happening, so bumped up
highs a tad. Tonight, a weak shortwave trough moves over the ridge
bringing scattered light rain showers. Measurable precipitation
amounts of only a few hundredths of an inch are expected. The
ridge axis shifts slightly east on Wednesday resulting in dry
conditions. Temperatures will depend on cloud cover. SREF
probabilities suggest Kansas and Nebraska will be stuck in clouds
through most of the day which will inhibit warming, but northeast
Colorado could see afternoon sun. As a result, might see a large
west to east temperature gradient across the area Wednesday
afternoon. Four Corners system gets organized Wednesday night,
with a lead shortwave trough moving in late. Enough mucape to
mention isolated thunder, but best chances will wait until
Thursday afternoon. Still considerable differences on where
exactly the dry line will set up for possible initiation. Deep
layer shear quite good, but limiting factor for severe threat will
be instability, which will be moderate at best. Rain chances will
only increase Thursday night as the system cuts off as an upper
low near or just south of the area, with northeast Colorado in the
favorable location.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The upper closed low pushes east passed the region on Friday and
rain chances decrease throughout the day as the system moves further
away. Winds shift to the north and strengthen in the afternoon,
gusting up to 40 mph in some locations. Highs are currently forecast
in the 50s to low 60s, but will not be surprised if temperatures
stay cooler due to cloud cover. With temperatures dropping into the
30s Friday night, some snow cannot be ruled out.

Upper ridging moves over the High Plains on Saturday behind the
exiting low, keeping the forecast dry into Sunday. However, another
wave moves onto the west coast, and precipitation chances return
late Sunday into Monday as this system travels across the Plains.
Temperatures warm through the weekend, reaching the 60s region wide
by Sunday. Lows will predominantly be in the 30s throughout the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period with
winds generally from the east and southeast occasionally gusting
20 to 25kts. There will be a period from 09z through the rest of
the period where cigs may reach mvfr category at both terminals.
For now have them vfr but its something to watch in later
forecasts. A few rain showers are expected to move across both
terminals in the 04z-10z timeframe.




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