Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 252047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
147 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

The Tri-State area will see an increase in cloudiness this evening
ahead of a weak upper trough that moves across the area. Clouds
quickly decrease from west to east shortly before sunrise Sunday
morning. A generally sunny sky is expected the rest of the day.
Variable winds under 10 mph tonight will become northwest around
10 mph generally east of the CO/KS border Sunday while in far
eastern Colorado winds generally from the south and southwest
under 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight generally 10 to 16 degrees.
High temperatures Sunday ranging from the upper 30s in Yuma
county to the mid 40s from Hill City to Cheyenne Wells and points

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 146 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

Monday: SW flow aloft and lee trough deepening should support WAA
over our CWA. A deep dry air mass remains in place, so despite a few
weak shortwave trough passages conditions should remain dry. Better
mixing (lower Tds) could push RH values below 20 percent...maybe
15 percent in our southwest. Gradient also increases in a similar
area along trough axis and we could see gusts in the 20-25 mph
range. Elevated fire weather is possible, but confidence isn`t
high in critical (RFW). Northeast locations could hold onto light
easterly flow through the BL minimizing potential warm-up near the
Nebraska border. I trended highs up, and could be a touch low
along CO border based on recent bias corrections.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Positively tilted upper level trough digs south
and east out of the Pacific northwest and across the CONUS through
Wednesday. The associated cold front will likely be over or possibly
through our CWA by midday Tuesday, and all guidance has it through
our CWA by Tuesday afternoon. Initially a dry layer below H85 will
limit precipitation Tuesday, however models are showing a light
precip signal near surface front in our southeast by the afternoon.
Better precip chances would arrive when strong lobe of mid level
vorticity swings over southwest Kansas.

Over our CWA, models show good overlap on precip signal, which
correlates with axis of positive frontogenesis at 700mb. Higher QPF
areas are mainly focused near our west (Palmer Divide enhancement)
and our south southeast (warm side of frontogenetical circulation).
Wet bulb profiles support a clean rain to snow transition (possibly
a quicker snow transition), and while this is a progressive/quick
moving system there should be a window for accumulating snow.
This appears to be a "high probability/low amounts" event for us
(around 1" or less), with several bands or pockets of accumulating
snow developing Tuesday evening into the overnight (mainly I-70
south). All snow should be over with early Wednesday morning.

Temperature forecast Tuesday and Wednesday are problematic, and
model temps aloft even with good daytime heating may not support
temps warmer than the low 40s, and there is a possibility (with
cloud cover) that they struggle out of the 30s.

Thursday-Saturday: NW flow aloft Thursday followed by westerly
flow Friday/Saturday will support a return to dry conditions and
above normal temperatures Friday/Saturday. There is reasonably
good consistency on lee trough deepening by Friday and temps aloft
(and adjusted biases) supporting highs near 70 (or warmer) by
Saturday. Blend is probably underdoing this warm up as it had for
previous ones based on previous bias corrections, and I adjusted
temps upward.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 905 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. A
weather disturbance moves across the area in the 00z-10z timeframe
bringing an increase in cloudiness, otherwise generally skc. Winds
for KGLD start from the west around 12kts veering to the northwest
around 10kts by 21z. From 00z-11z winds variable at 6kts. After
12z winds become northwest around 7kts. For KMCK winds begin the
period from the west-southwest near 11kts veering to the west
around 12kts by 20z. For tonight winds generally from the west or
west-southwest at speeds around 6kts.




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