Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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880
FXUS63 KGLD 031852
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1252 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING IS YIELDING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...TEMPS IN THE U50S THRU THE L60S AND A NORTHERLY WIND
AVERAGING 10-20MPH. AREAS SEEING DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS ARE THE LOCALES MOSTLY SEEING THE LOWER RANGE
OF TEMPS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS SEEING CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME WILL SEE IT DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO ENSUE FOR THE OVERTIME PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WX INTO TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTACT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AND A
GENERAL WNW FLOW THRU THE MID LEVELS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL GIVE THE CWA AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WHICH IN TURN
WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

FOR TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S WEST THRU THE
LOWER TO MID 40S EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE MID 70S FOR ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...RETURN MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES OFF TO THE EAST...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HEADS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SITS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL...BUT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE. HOWEVER...MUCH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. GUIDANCE DIFFERS NOT ONLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVES...BUT THE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND BOUNDARIES AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AS WELL...FROM THE 50S DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOR BOTH KGLD/KMCK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SKC BY 00Z-01Z WED. FROM 18Z-
21Z...BKN025 POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-01Z THEN
WNW AROUND 10KTS. BY 13Z-14Z WED...BACK TO NW AROUND 10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN



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