Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261812
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1112 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO
THE PLAINS SATURDAY.  THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SNOW EVENT IS SLOW TO GET UNDERWAY BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND LIGHT SNOW IS REPORTED AT LIMON.  AN
EARLIER REPORT INDICATED SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTHWEST
CHEYENNE COUNTY KANSAS.  EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING SPREADING EAST INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND
DYNAMICS MOVE NORTHEAST.  LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END AROUND 06Z SATURDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA OR NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MCK TO
GLD. ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
PROFILE SATURATES AND LIGHT SNOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.  WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW.
PLAN TO CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS RESUME SATURDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST FA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES.  EXPECT READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
OVER THE MORE EXTENSIVE SNOW FIELD IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO THE THE LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR AND LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SYSTEM
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING MOVES THROUGH.
THE BIGGER IMPACT HOWEVER WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS TO
TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 02Z
OR SO IN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW AND VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS 1/2 MILE. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH 15G25KTS. AFTER
03Z CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 03Z WINDS
UNDER 10KTS FROM THE NORTH THEN BACKING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS AROUND 12Z.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z
OR SO IN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW AND VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS 1/2 MILE. WINDS FROM THE NORTH GUSTING 20-25KTS. MVFR CIGS
FROM 06Z-08Z THEN VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
DECREASING TO 10KTS OR LESS AND BACKING TO THE WEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ001>004-013>015-027-028-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99


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