Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT JET WILL RESULT IN FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. HI RESOLUTIONS MODELS SUGGESTING A HALF INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND FROM NEAR YUMA TO
BURLINGTON...LESS ELSEWHERE. AS THE JET SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT SUBSIDENT AREA OF RIGHT EXIT REGION WILL SHUT OFF THE
SNOW BY 12Z. COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...MITIGATING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVERSPREADING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WARMING TAKES PLACE
THU-FRI AS A STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN COLORADO. 850 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE
SATURDAY WITH GFS HINTING AT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE AREA IN W-SW SFC FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH TAKES THE EDGE OFF THE
UNSEASONAL WARM TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IF
EC SOLUTION VERIFIES THEN SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
IN THE 70S.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS SATURDAY...BOTH GFS/EC ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL POTENTIALLY
BE 35-40 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH
PLUNGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MON-TUE AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. AT BOTH GLD AND MCK...EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO
TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY 03Z ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR 3-6 HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES TO BE NOTED
DURING THAT TIME. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE TAFS SINCE THE PROBABILITY IS 30 PERCENT OR LESS OF
RECEIVING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 06-09Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DEEPER INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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