Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250320
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
820 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AT 800 PM MST...TEMPERATURES RANGE
MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME SPOT 20S SHOWING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY FOR MOST
LOCALES...BUT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THESE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO OVERNIGHT FORECASTED LOWS IN THE 20S...AIDED
BY REMAINING SNOWPACK OVER AREA AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS. OVERALL FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...GOING NUMBERS FOLLOWING
CLOSELY WITH CURRENT TRENDS FROM LATEST OBS...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AFTER 15Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SOME PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES
THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. SHOULD INITIALLY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
THE BEGINNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO) LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

LOWS TONIGHT MID TEENS SOUTH TO LOW 20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE MAIN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING EASTWARD IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NONE
OF THEM LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECTING
FEW-SCT200-250 TO GIVE WAY TO BKN050-100 BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. KMCK
MAY SEE BKN035 BY 20Z WED. LIGHT -RW WILL BE IN VICINITY OF BOTH
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NO VSBY REDUCTION.
WINDS MEANDERING WNW/WSW (5-15KTS) THRU 16Z TOMORROW...THEN
MAINLY NORTH 15-30KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN


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