Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 150928
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

The short term concern is the cold air that is expected to begin
moving into the region between 00Z-06Z this evening. Along the
leading edge of the cold air, very light precipitation is expected
to begin as light rain with a transition to light snow as
temperatures drop below freezing through the evening. For a brief
time over a portion of east central Colorado there is just enough
of a warm layer aloft for the possibility of light freezing
drizzle or light freezing rain between 06Z-12Z. Beyond 12Z, the
cold air should be deep enough to produce all snow. The cold
surface high pressure area continues to push southward through the
central high plains into the southern high plains through the day
on Monday with light snow tapering off through the day. Up to one
inch or less total snowfall accumulation is anticipated.
Temperatures are expected to change little as a result as daytime
highs on Monday remain very near the early morning lows.
Temperatures are expected to be dramatically colder Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

Thursday-Friday: Deep dry and stable air mass will be in
place during these periods. Shortwave ridging will transition over
the Central High Plains, with rising heights to near 570 DM and WAA
increasing in low level southwest flow. Latest trends in guidance
support highs in the upper 50s, possibly even the lower 60s Thursday
afternoon. By Friday deep SW flow should support stronger WAA and
highs may reach the middle 60s.

Saturday-Sunday: Deepening trough over the western US is progged to
move across the plains Saturday night and Sunday, with an associated
cold front dropping south Saturday. Models have come into reasonable
alignment on timing, but still vary on evolution of this feature.
This will mainly influences the possible impacts as the GFS/GEM
continue to show better potential for moderate snow accumulations
and blowing snow as they close the low further west and are a little
slower. A closed solution is more favorable for stronger deformation
and potential for higher rates. ECMWF would be much faster, with a
smaller window for accumulations (and weaker forcing) over our CWA.
These periods will need to be monitored.

I am less confident on impacts, but the chance for measurable has
increased, and I was comfortable keeping higher PoPs reflected in
consensus blend. Current guidance is also probably running a little
warm on Highs Sunday (based of projected H85 temps) and possible
cloud cover, so I trended temps down a little.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1024 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

With snow bands impacting the area tonight, sub-VFR condition are
expected to prevail at the McCook and Goodland terminals.
Condition will start to improve after sunrise. Expecting winds to
be north at 10-15 knots throughout the TAF period.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon to
     11 AM MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
     041-042.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Tuesday for COZ090>092.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon to
     11 AM MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...EV



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