Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241930
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
130 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE TRACKING ALONG
THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE MONDAY. THE SURFACE
TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO FAR WEST TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE MONDAY.

WITH GENERALLY HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT OR MONDAY. WITH NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNING FROM
WEST/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THAN THEY WERE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATTERN... WEDNESDAY A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM... THAT WILL HAVE PASS
THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA ON TUESDAY... WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF REGION. THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO STILL BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE NORTHEAST
SECTION OF OUR WARNING AREA.

THURSDAY LOOK FOR A BRIEF DAY OF CALM UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS
TO IMPACT THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY AND LAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW... THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS MUCH MORE STABLE THAN
THE ANTICIPATED PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THEREFORE... CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD. FEW
TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURING FROM
THE WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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