Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 201153
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR INDICATE DRY AIR AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE TRI-STATE AREA YESTERDAY.

THIS MORNING DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH THE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.  WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHIFTS EAST...TURNING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THURSDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

THURSDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST.  SOUNDINGS/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA INDICATE A SHALLOW SATURATED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA...BUT A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA.  WITH LIFT BEING THE WEAKEST OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA AS
WELL...WILL HAVE THE LOWEST RAINFALL CHANCES THERE WITH CHANCES
INCREASING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN ABOVE ROUGHLY 700MB WHICH WILL CAUSE ANY RAINFALL TO TRANSITION
TO DRIZZLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WITH
THIS IN MIND AM THINKING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN LIFT
AND MOISTURE ARE HIGHEST.

FRIDAY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO
EAST BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA PRIOR
TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.  DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS...SO
WILL HAVE DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF A DRYLINE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA.

DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON A DRYLINE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BE AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG RANGER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
50KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPER CELLS.  THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
TIED TO THE DRYLINE...BUT STORM MOTION WILL TAKE THE STORMS TO THE
EAST.  AM THINKING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRIMARILY WEST OF THE
KS/CO BORDER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY EVENING INSTABILITY ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL
DECLINE...ALLOWING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO COME TO AN END.
THROUGH THE NIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR DRIZZLE BACK TO THE AREA.  THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MORE
COMPACT THAN THE LAST ONE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
TO BE TIED TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THEREFORE WILL HAVE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL FOLLOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE
DURING THE NIGHT.  HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL START TO MOVE INTO UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS IS MOVING
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AT 12Z ON SATURDAY THE GFS
SHOWS SOME DIVERGENCE AT THE 500 MB LEVEL AS WELL AS A 300MB JET
MOVING OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE CAPE IS SHOWING VALUES UP
TO 1600 J/KG INTO THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS
SHOWING 60 KT WINDS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.
THIS COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AROUND
18Z BUT THERE IS DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND
00Z SUNDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY DECREASE THE DEVELOPMENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER THEN INITIALLY FORECASTED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS WELL
COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE WARMER AIR BEING MORE SOUTH.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP
INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD THERE ARE MULTIPLE 700 MB SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE CAPE SHOWS VALUES OF 900 J/KG
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GETS TO 50 KTS ON SUNDAY. SURFACE ADVECTION
GETS UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
A WEAK CLOSED LOW...CREATING INSTABILITY...COMING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES...EVENTUALLY BLENDING IN WITH THE PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT CEILINGS VERY WELL AT ALL. BOTH SITES HAVE
HAD MVFR CEILINGS FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS YET LATEST DATA CONTINUES
TO SHOW IFR CEILINGS. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS ALMOST ALL SITES
SURROUNDING THE TAF SITES ARE AT IFR. LATEST OBS HAVE DROPPED
TO IFR.

WENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE CEILING TRENDS FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY IN
THE TAF. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALL TO MVFR
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/CLT
AVIATION...JTL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.