Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 242337
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MODEST LOW
AND  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG ALONG A COLD FRONT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH
SPRINKLES. LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S.

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPS AS SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING...CONTINUING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 40S TO AROUND 50 FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH
LOW 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF THE BORDER. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH...MAYBE A BIT HIGHER
IN THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREAS SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN US...WITH SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. RESULTING STORM TRACK ALLOWS FOR A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
OR NEAR OUR CWA. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY...WITH PATTERN LIMITING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH EACH OF THESE QUICK MOVING FEATURES. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED SPRINKLES
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP IS VERY LOW.
IF THERE IS ANYTHING FALLING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IT COULD
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DROP.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT CURRENTLY A CONCERN. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NIGHT MIGHT BE A LITTLE
BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...HOWEVER WITH THE LAST
HARD FREEZE USUALLY IN THE FIRST PART OF MAY THIS IS NOT AN
ABNORMAL TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY..H5 RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SATURDAY
COULD BE PARTICULARLY WARM AS STRONGER LEE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN NEAR 80F. RH VALUES COULD BE CLOSE TO RFW CRITERIA BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GUSTY
ENOUGH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF
WITH MAIN STORM TRACKS REMAINING OUTSIDE THE REGION. A WEST OR
NW FLOW COULD STILL SUPPORT QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES...AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGHS MONDAY OR DRY LINE ON TUESDAY
COULD SUPPORT A DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE JUST TOO DRY TO
HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH BEST MODEL
PRECIP SIGNAL LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN THEN...DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT BE A BETTER BET THAN A WETTING RAIN.
LITTLE HOPE FOR RELIEF FROM THE DRY WEATHER WE`VE HAD IN THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDTITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS


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