Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 221931
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
131 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today THROUGH TUESDAY night)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
INITIATE STORMS ON THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE PLACING THE DRYLINE NEAR
KS HIGHWAY 25. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR RANGES FROM
30 TO 40KTS SO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE FA.
SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP FIRE
SOME STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRATUS, FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COOLER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES
FROM 75 TO AROUND 80. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
75 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO 85 IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO 60.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016
Southwest flow aloft will continue across the central High Plains
through Wednesday. Embedded weak shortwaves will result in
occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances
will be along and north of Interstate 70. On Thursday the main
energy lifts out across the central and southern Rockies providing
stronger synoptic scale forcing for thunderstorms. Wraparound
precipitation will continue into Friday with the slow moving upper
system. More of a zonal flow is forecast for next weekend but
models continue to be quite wet with embedded shortwave troughs
aloft and copious low level moisture available. As for severe
potential...certainly ahead of the upper low Tuesday and
Wednesday shear and instability will be sufficient, but as the
upper low gets closer Wednesday through Friday deep layer shear
will decrease as does the severe threat. However, as the upper
flow increases again over the weekend with the zonal flow, may
see increasing threat once again depending on where the instability
axis ultimately sets up. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal through the period.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016
VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The breezy winds
will continue well into the night. Meanwhile isolated to scattered
storms are expected near the TAF sites during the late afternoon
and early evening. Late evening into the overnight hours low
level wind shear will develop ahead of a cold front that will move
through during the last few hours of the night. Behind the cold
front winds will turn to the northwest and become light.
Ahead of the frontal passage elevated thunderstorms will develop,
possibly near KMCK. If they do, it should only be for a couple
hours before storms are pushed east by the front.