Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 151230
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

HAVE CANCELLED WINTER STORM WARNING AND LONE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. JUST CANT JUSTIFY THEIR EXISTENCE AS LITTLE IF
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN IOWA AT THE END OF THE DAY THEN
EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CURRENTLY
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO AREAS FROM YUMA TO
GOODLAND AND RUSSELL SPRINGS EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY
EVENING THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GREATLY TIED TO THE MID LEVEL AND 850-500MB MOISTURE. HAVE
CANCELLED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT KIT CARSON COUNTY
WHERE ANOTHER FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS CREATING A FEW AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO KEPT
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING DESPITE LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING WILL GET BLOWN AROUND FROM
THE WIND.

THE GREATEST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WIND. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH 35 TO 45KT 800MB WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUGGESTING 18Z WIND GUSTS 35 TO
50 KTS (EAST TO WEST) WITH 21Z WIND GUSTS 37 TO 54 KTS (EAST TO
WEST). RECENT LOCAL RESEARCH SHOWING PROBABILITY OF REACHING
GUSTS 45+ MPH AROUND 50 PERCENT IN GOODLAND AND 70 PERCENT IN
BURLINGTON (GENERALLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF CO/KS BORDER) AT
18Z WITH 67 TO 79 PERCENT AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS AT 21Z.
FURTHEST EAST CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER. THREAT FOR 58 MPH GUSTS
(HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA) ALONG/WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER RATHER
LOW...BELOW 25 PERCENT. NONETHELESS...ITS GONNA BE WINDY WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED.

HIGHS IN THE 30S. LOWS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR PARTS OF FAR
EASTERN COLORADO (WHERE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED AND LIGHTER
WINDS) WITH LOW TEENS TO AROUND 20 ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH ANOTHER MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY SUNSET. SOME STRATUS
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO FROM YUMA TO FLAGLER AND
KIT CARSON. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS 30-35 FAR EASTERN COLORADO...30S TO AROUND 40
(NORTH TO SOUTH) FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO
LOW 20S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME STRATUS ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER AND POINTS WEST DURING THE DAY OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. DRY AIR FROM 700-500MB REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN BETWEEN
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FAVORING A DRY DAYTIME FORECAST. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SIMILAR
SITUATION...VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE NIGHT DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL CHOICE. WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOWING MORE MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS/NAM PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION GOING. HIGHS IN THE 30S EXCEPT LOW 40S FROM
WALLACE COUNTY EAST TO GOVE AND POINTS SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OPERATIONAL GFS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF MEDIUM RANGE DATA.
WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS...OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...GEM ARE TAKING A MUCH DRIER MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE GFS...DO NOT FEEL CURRENT
DATA SUPPORTS MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCES AT THIS
TIME AND DO NOT FEEL RAISING POSSIBILITY OF MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL IS
WARRANTED JUST YET. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
AND 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

KGLD...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z THEN VFR 06Z-12Z. MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 20G30KTS
AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TO 31G42KTS BY 17Z-18Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z-22Z BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 15KTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY 02Z. AFTER 06Z WINDS UNDER 11KTS. CANT RULE OUT A
FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 15Z-00Z TIME FRAME. SHOULD ANY
REACH THE TERMINAL COULD SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z THEN VFR 09Z-12Z. MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 21G31KTS
AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TO 26G36KTS BY 17Z-18Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING TO 20KTS BY 01Z AND
11KTS AFTER 09Z. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 15Z-01Z
TIME FRAME. SHOULD ANY REACH THE TERMINAL COULD SEE A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99



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