Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FGUS73 KGLD 022222
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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
320 PM MST THU March 2 2017

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM GOODLAND SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO MAJOR
RIVERS LOCATED
- IN YUMA, KIT CARSON,AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO
- IN DUNDY,HITCHCOCK, AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA
- IN 13 NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES WHOSE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARIES
    ARE DELINEATED BY GREELEY, WICHITA, LOGAN, GOVE,
    GRAHAM, AND NORTON COUNTIES.
THESE RIVER SYSTEMS INCLUDE
- THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
- THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
- BEAVER, SAPPA AND PRAIRIE DOG CREEKS
- SOUTH AND NORTH FORKS OF THE SOLOMON RIVER
- THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 2 THROUGH MARCH 16, 2017.

OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE,
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED.
OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. THUS, IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL, THEN
ACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FLOOD EVENTS IN THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS
OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION, OR LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION.

AFTER THE AREA RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY,
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRED OVER THE AREA IN FEBRUARY. AS A
RESULT, MUCH OF THE AREA IS NOW BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR OR BARELY
ABOVE NORMAL. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. NO SNOW COVER CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE GOODLAND HSA. THE
CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR INDEX (WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU) SHOWS
THAT ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE MODERATE DROUGHT AREA HAS BECOME LARGER SINCE THE
FIRST FLOOD OUTLOOK.

NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) (WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/)
FORECASTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 10 THROUGH MARCH 16.

RESERVOIR LEVELS CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF
CONSERVATION POOL CAPACITIES AT KEITH SEBELIUS LAKE IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS, HUGH BUTLER LAKE, AND ENDERS AND SWANSON RESERVOIRS IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE HARRY STRUNK RESERVOIR WHICH FEEDS MEDICINE
CREEK IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS CURRENTLY AT 97 PERCENT OF ITS
CONSERVATION CAPACITY.

GIVEN NO SNOWPACK, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS,
AND FORECASTS INDICATING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION, A BELOW NORMAL
RISK OF FLOODING IS DESIGNATED FOR THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA FOR THE
PERIOD OF MARCH 2 TO MARCH 16.

$$

BULLER



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