Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FGUS73 KGLD 032055
ESFGLD
COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-
203-NEC057-087-145-052100

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MST THU MARCH 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM GOODLAND SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO MAJOR
RIVERS LOCATED
- IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO
- IN DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA
- IN 13 NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES WHOSE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARIES
  ARE DELINEATED BY GREELEY...WICHITA...LOGAN...GOVE...
  GRAHAM...AND NORTON COUNTIES. THESE RIVER SYSTEMS INCLUDE
- THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
- THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
- BEAVER...SAPPA AND PRAIRIE DOG CREEKS
- SOUTH AND NORTH FORKS OF THE SOLOMON RIVER
- THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 3 THROUGH MARCH 17, 2016.

OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE...
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED.
OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. THUS...IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL...THEN
ACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FLOOD EVENTS IN THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS
OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION.

THE AREA HAS ONLY RECEIVED SPOTTY AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. CURRENTLY THE AREA HAS RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER.

FOR THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA)...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. NO SNOW COVER
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE GOODLAND HSA. THE CURRENT DROUGHT
MONITOR INDEX (WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU) SHOWS THAT ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTHWEST KIT CARSON COUNTY IN COLORADO WAS EXPERIENCING
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE REST OF THE AREA NOT HAVING ANY
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) (WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/)
FORECASTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 10 THROUGH MARCH 16.

RESERVOIR LEVELS CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 45 PERCENT OF
CONSERVATION POOL CAPACITIES AT KEITH SEBELIUS LAKE IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS...HUGH BUTLER LAKE...ENDERS AND SWANSON RESERVOIRS IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE HARRY STRUNK RESERVOIR WHICH FEEDS MEDICINE
CREEK IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS CURRENTLY AT 96 PERCENT OF ITS
CONSERVATION CAPACITY.

GIVEN NO SNOWPACK...NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTS INDICATING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...
A BELOW AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING IS DESIGNATED FOR THE GOODLAND
SERVICE AREA FOR THE PERIOD OF MARCH 3 TO MARCH 17.

$$

BULLER



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