Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FGUS73 KGLD 150003
ESFGLD
COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-
203-NEC057-087-145-151200

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT THU APR 14 2016

...HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
RIVERS AND CREEKS IN FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE FLOW AROUND THESE
WEATHER FEATURES WILL TRANSPORT VERY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AXIS OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE
WILL INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT AND WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

BY THE TIME THE RAIN DIMINISHES MONDAY...TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SOILS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY SATURATED AND MOST STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
PRODUCE RISES ON SOME AREA STREAMS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY PRODUCE RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME STREAMS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE REPUBLICAN AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS
AND BEAVER...FRENCHMAN AND SAPPA CREEKS. RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT RISES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON OTHER SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES. SOME SMALL
STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED BANKFULL. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING FLOOD
PRONE AREAS NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS OR IN URBANIZED AREAS WITH
POOR DRAINAGE.

THE EXACT SCENARIO FOR FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS PRODUCT WILL
BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THIS SITUATION WORSENS.

ANYONE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THESE STREAMS AND RIVERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE FORECAST. CONSIDER MOVING LIVESTOCK AND EQUIPMENT TO
HIGHER GROUND. LOWLAND FLOODING COULD IMPACT A FEW RIVER ROADS...LOW
LYING AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS AND RECREATIONAL INTERESTS.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AS TIMING AND IMPACTS BECOME FURTHER REFINED.

$$



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