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000
FXUS64 KHUN 161429 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
929 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE T BUT KEEP SCHC OF -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY
COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKING THRU MIDDLE TN AND
NERN AL WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL DECKS OF
CLOUDS AND VIRGA THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE WAVE, PARTIAL CLEARING HAS
TAKEN PLACE IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION AND TEMPS ARE RESPONDING IN KIND
WITH READINGS IN THE U60S-M70S. IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT IMPULSE AND 7H
THETA-E ADVECTION, HIGH BASED -SHRA/VIRGA ARE BREAKING OUT ACROSS MS
AND WERE JUST ENTERING NW AL. DEEPER CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING WAS
OCCURRING IN SRN MS AND SERN LA. THIS WAVE OF VORTICITY AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CUT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY. WE HAVE
LEFT THE SCHC POP IN, BUT HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WILL BE MINIMAL. A CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON
FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOULD IMPEDE SFC-BASED CONVECTION.

KULA
&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 657 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT BOTH HSV/MSL FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING VALID TAF PERIOD. BKN/OVC VFR CIGS OF
AS/CS AND SOME VIRGA WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH LOWEST CIGS GENERALLY
14-18 KFT. CLOUD DECKS WILL BEGIN TO DESCEND EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH
STRATUS CIGS POTENTIALLY FALLING TO BTWN 3-4 KFT BY END OF FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFMSL BTWN 17/06-12Z...ALTHOUGH A
FEW TSRA WILL ALSO BE PSBL -- ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. SFC WINDS WILL
BACK FROM SSW TODAY TO SSE OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE
5-10 KNOT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.