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000
FXUS64 KHUN 141454 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
954 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL MORNING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION YESTERDAY.
DUE TO THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAT CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA...MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE CWA DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THIS WAS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS MORNINGS LOWS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THE MORNING DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA ARE STILL
SITTING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...IT STILL SEEMS SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS HUMID CONSIDERING THE LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS WE SAW MUCH OF
YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THOSE DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AND KEEP CONDITIONS NICE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS
WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL EFFECTS...IN ADDITION TO VEERING THE
WINDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MID 50S DEWPOINTS SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS TN/KY. OUR TN
COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF NW AL WILL SEE THE DRIER DEWPOINT VALUES
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 50S TODAY AS DIURNAL MIXING ALSO HELPS
REDUCE THOSE VALUES. BUT CENTRAL AND NE AL SHOW HOLD CLOSER TO THOSE
MID 50S TD VALUES WITH MORE MOIST AIR HOLDING ON NEARER THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THE COOL ADVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM
CLIMBING BEYOND THE MID 80S TODAY EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING RIDGE.

CCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 629 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 10-13KT BY 15Z...THEN BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

RSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
A FAR MORE QUIET WX PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS EARLY FRI MORNING AS COMPARED TO THU. REMNANT SHOWERS/TSTMS
WHICH IMPACTED MUCH OF THE REGION YESTERDAY HAVE PUSHED THEIR WAY
INTO THE ERN GULF COAST...ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK PASSING COLD
FRONT. MOSTLY CLR SKIES THOUGH NOW DOMINATE THE WX PIC ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH
HOPEFULLY WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N GRADUALLY MOVES
EWD. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS/BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLR/SUNNY SKIES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN XPCTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS BUILDS EWD INTO THE SE
STATES...COUPLED WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC.
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION THEN LOOKS TO WEAKEN ON SUN WITH GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALSO LOOKS TO
DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING E/NEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO PREVAIL WELL INTO TUE AS A WEAK ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN GRADUALLY MOVES SWD
ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY MID WEEK WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH IT
IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL INVOF
THE FORECAST AREA GOING PAST WED. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL MAINTAIN AN
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
QUIET AND NEAR SEASONAL WX CONDITIONS/TEMPS XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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